Earnings · resolved market
Will Theravance Biopharma (TBPH) beat quarterly earnings?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x06dd9bd00c4d8db2d220963c5e4d68a76bc9d0d5ef750dcfad601f2880bb9c07
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Earningsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,531
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,623
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,531 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Earnings is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Earnings | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 1c | 4,597$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.54 | 463 | 14.3%66 W · 397 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f2…5cbabacked No | 41c | 647.03$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264.29 | 761 | 37.6%286 W · 475 L | +35.5wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed No | 42c | 434$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.28 | 207 | 29.5%61 W · 146 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -20%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b9…e44ebacked Yes | 55c | 289.07$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.08 | 172 | 26.7%46 W · 126 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f91…20ccbacked No | 46c | 282$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.72 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 45c | 227.32$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.2 | 674 | 42.7%288 W · 386 L | -36.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c66…31e3backed Yes | 59c | 222$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.02 | 118 | 60.2%71 W · 47 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x470d…b463backed Yes | 60c | 182.96$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.18 | 75 | 61.3%46 W · 29 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a0a…9229backed Yes | 59c | 169$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.29 | 115 | 66.1%76 W · 39 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x64d7…4d00backed Yes | 53c | 112.85$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.85 | 213 | 57.3%122 W · 91 L | -7.7wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a5d…9ea3backed Yes | 58c | 111$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.62 | 107 | 60.7%65 W · 42 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6628…ad47backed No | 45c | 110.16$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 37 | 24.3%9 W · 28 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 38c | 108$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.08 | 579 | 39%226 W · 353 L | -25.5wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 47c | 100$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 290 | 24.1%70 W · 220 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7ee…8655backed Yes | 64c | 100$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c4f…73a6backed Yes | 54c | 98$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.08 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +88.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x36c9…3f9fbacked Yes | 54c | 98$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.08 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +135.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f9…5526backed No | 46c | 85$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.1 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1393…8392backed No | 46c | 80$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.8 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d8d…13b7backed Yes | 60c | 78.68$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.68 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 47c | 75.06$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.24 | 263 | 34.6%91 W · 172 L | -14.2wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x388e…2078backed Yes | 55c | 70.99$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.95 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x15b7…7fd0backed Yes | 54c | 65$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.9 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +99.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 60c | 60$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.3 | 155 | 30.3%47 W · 108 L | -20.2wins | -0.13per pick | 43cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xdc07…e9f2backed Yes | 53c | 58$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.26 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +100.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc86f…341dbacked Yes | 54c | 56$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.76 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +135.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2877…dc5bbacked Yes | 54c | 56$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.76 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +99.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb59a…e730backed Yes | 54c | 53$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.38 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +99.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f51…2019backed Yes | 56c | 52.9$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.02 | 174 | 41.4%72 W · 102 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd67a…304cbacked Yes | 53c | 52$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.44 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +99.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4efd…9e75backed No | 33c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e96…633fbacked No | 42c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 46 | 50%23 W · 23 L | +4.7wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb68f…613fbacked No | 35c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 38 | 34.2%13 W · 25 L | +3.7wins | +0.10per pick | 24cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0ecd…b2c0backed Yes | 53c | 47$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.09 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +100.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf1fc…0de5backed No | 45c | 45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7b5…a98fbacked Yes | 55c | 45$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa960…dbebbacked No | 45c | 44.3$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.89 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7bd…d82dbacked Yes | 54c | 43$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.78 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +81%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf447…3fe7backed Yes | 54c | 42$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.32 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +99.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcf08…bfc7backed Yes | 59c | 33.9$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.9 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3857…6605backed Yes | 59c | 33.44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.71 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +2.5wins | +0.19per pick | 43cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa16b…8d7fbacked Yes | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.9wins | -0.17per pick | 44cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4b8a…f4a4backed Yes | 60c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 101 | 32.7%33 W · 68 L | -10.0wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xeeb3…df33backed No | 41c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -35%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0d27…ced0backed Yes | 58c | 26.56$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.15 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf21a…1e6cbacked Yes | 66c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.5 | 40 | 57.5%23 W · 17 L | +3.5wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf3d9…8169backed Yes | 56c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | -1.9wins | -0.10per pick | 70cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x17a5…e00abacked Yes | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34b…2f86backed Yes | 54c | 19$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.74 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +102%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4aff…b12bbacked Yes | 59c | 18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.38 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +64.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Earnings and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.