Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on May 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x06ef9049f14e814af83799c2d1b841032595818dec593f6434867c287a7cc5c5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,948
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,116
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,948 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd564…58d0backed Yes | 43c | 293.61$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.46 | 180 | 30.6%55 W · 125 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09c2…8210backed Yes | 66c | 271.26$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.6 | 541 | 54%292 W · 249 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 19c | 213.47$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.84 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b8f…3b86backed Yes | 39c | 196.65$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.09 | 179 | 34.1%61 W · 118 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79dc…ca77backed No | 30c | 187.31$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.68 | 307 | 22.1%68 W · 239 L | -14.8wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x32ea…f872backed Yes | 71c | 178.95$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.31 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6aab…ead7backed Yes | 57c | 174.66$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.66 | 101 | 41.6%42 W · 59 L | -8.3wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 26c | 172.86$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.08 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 30c | 158.56$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.15 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf580…824bbacked Yes | 69c | 144.16$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.16 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 71cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3507…71d7backed No | 73c | 137.64$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 333 | 73%243 W · 90 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 73cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 39c | 115.07$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.68 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 47c | 106.62$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.52 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 73c | 99.63$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.91 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x73ae…3b52backed Yes | 49c | 98.35$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.85 | 57 | 38.6%22 W · 35 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 31c | 96.01$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.16 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 34c | 89.97$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.38 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x78bc…617cbacked Yes | 67c | 88.12$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.98 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 56cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 40c | 86.73$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.87 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xd78c…a66ebacked Yes | 25c | 74.09$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.79 | 728 | 37.8%275 W · 453 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26cf…c000backed Yes | 28c | 71.43$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.43 | 79 | 55.7%44 W · 35 L | +3.9wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3942…39d7backed No | 18c | 70.22$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.64 | 297 | 17.2%51 W · 246 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f46…e2bdbacked Yes | 45c | 67.33$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.33 | 144 | 52.8%76 W · 68 L | +20.6wins | +0.14per pick | 38cpaid | +39.9%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked No | 54c | 65$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.1 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 64c | 63.99$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.96 | 805 | 60.6%488 W · 317 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 76c | 58.99$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.64 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9387…d659backed Yes | 28c | 58.02$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.83 | 271 | 30.6%83 W · 188 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 38c | 54$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.69 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f37…1410backed No | 66c | 51$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.66 | 849 | 30.6%260 W · 589 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +28%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 66c | 50.97$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.64 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32e0…3884backed Yes | 34c | 44.9$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.85 | 110 | 25.5%28 W · 82 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked No | 34c | 44.11$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 71c | 41$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.12 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdaeb…0d2fbacked Yes | 34c | 36.64$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.36 | 528 | 28%148 W · 380 L | -57.1wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xaf3c…ddd0backed No | 74c | 36.04$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.67 | 466 | 67.6%315 W · 151 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +334.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf2a…e862backed No | 77c | 36$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.72 | 68 | 61.8%42 W · 26 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1bc…e269backed Yes | 62c | 33.88$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.88 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 71c | 33.12$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.54 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa84…e985backed Yes | 34c | 30$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.8 | 407 | 39.3%160 W · 247 L | -11.2wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 75c | 30$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 41c | 29.1$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.92 | 886 | 50.2%445 W · 441 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5b…619abacked No | 51c | 28.92$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.75 | 274 | 64.6%177 W · 97 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd21c…abd9backed No | 66c | 26.06$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.2 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8dd…ec86backed No | 75c | 23.78$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.84 | 190 | 57.9%110 W · 80 L | -9.5wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x180e…29dfbacked No | 71c | 22.4$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 508 | 60.4%307 W · 201 L | +18.3wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed No | 69c | 21.73$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb51…329bbacked Yes | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 64 | 26.6%17 W · 47 L | -3.8wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4167…f99abacked No | 73c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 1,036 | 68.6%711 W · 325 L | -33.9wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x958a…9f65backed No | 77c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 558 | 55.2%308 W · 250 L | -10.0wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x170b…4737backed No | 77c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 809 | 57.6%466 W · 343 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 54c | 19.71$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.66 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6409…9411backed No | 70c | 18.98$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.29 | 825 | 62.2%513 W · 312 L | -23.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fa9…a323backed No | 63c | 17.12$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.85 | 77 | 55.8%43 W · 34 L | -6.4wins | -0.08per pick | 64cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 66c | 15.47$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.21 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1118…bba7backed Yes | 66c | 15.38$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.23 | 20 | 80%16 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 75cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd2d…0ef3backed Yes | 67c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.95 | 114 | 46.5%53 W · 61 L | -6.3wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on May 28?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 17°C on May 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 19°C on May 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on May 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on May 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C on May 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 24°C on May 28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.