NBA · resolved market
Pistons vs. Kings: O/U 228.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x070f1a16d5a77bcb6050d88b7a2c501f98684885fceaa3745e04c3fd39929861
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $39,663
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $39,868
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $39,663 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8f03…64d6backed Under | 55c | 24,331$13,379 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,378.72 | 1,046 | 51.1%534 W · 512 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Over | 45c | 22,586$10,105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,481.29 | 2,153 | 51.3%1,105 W · 1,048 L | +76.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 55c | 5,306$2,939 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,938.65 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Over | 45c | 4,418$1,990 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,428.43 | 2,361 | 48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 46c | 786$363 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$422.77 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bea…5d50backed Over | 45c | 750$338 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$412.5 | 500 | 47.2%236 W · 264 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Over | 45c | 678$306 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$372.29 | 2,091 | 47.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L | -56.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24da…9561backed Over | 45c | 500$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$275 | 69 | 49.3%34 W · 35 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa35b…0eccbacked Under | 54c | 373.31$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 245 | 56.3%138 W · 107 L | +10.5wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked Over | 45c | 314$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.7 | 1,908 | 54.5%1,040 W · 868 L | +53.7wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Over | 46c | 313$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.02 | 1,667 | 52.7%878 W · 789 L | +45.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae53…d80bbacked Under | 52c | 299.99$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156 | 409 | 52.1%213 W · 196 L | +16.3wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x042a…7f4cbacked Under | 49c | 204.69$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | -2.6wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeabb…0cf6backed Under | 54c | 185.19$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Over | 48c | 175.46$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.5 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00ce…3f01backed Over | 51c | 174.69$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.6 | 321 | 51.7%166 W · 155 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23fe…9788backed Over | 47c | 131.36$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.71 | 526 | 43%226 W · 300 L | -19.4wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Under | 52c | 125$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 2,208 | 46.6%1,030 W · 1,178 L | +42.7wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c13…99b7backed Over | 50c | 100.36$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.36 | 477 | 38.2%182 W · 295 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x243c…9ae0backed Under | 53c | 88.72$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.8 | 383 | 47%180 W · 203 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Under | 55c | 84.28$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.23 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffbf…cc59backed Under | 55c | 59$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.45 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x474b…c5b1backed Under | 52c | 57.75$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.11 | 90 | 50%45 W · 45 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Under | 49c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 1,384 | 39.4%545 W · 839 L | +4.8wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb052…7adabacked Over | 48c | 41.54$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.6 | 290 | 46.9%136 W · 154 L | -9.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Over | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 2,602 | 50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L | -20.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a81…b783backed Under | 52c | 38.42$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 40 | 32.5%13 W · 27 L | -6.8wins | -0.17per pick | 49cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Over | 61c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.7 | 2,169 | 40.8%885 W · 1,284 L | -8.7wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Over | 45c | 25.95$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.27 | 1,294 | 48.1%623 W · 671 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5373…e46bbacked Under | 52c | 23.64$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.33 | 87 | 44.8%39 W · 48 L | -4.3wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a7…07cdbacked Over | 46c | 23.28$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.57 | 62 | 53.2%33 W · 29 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x084c…7544backed Over | 48c | 22.11$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 93 | 45.2%42 W · 51 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Over | 52c | 19.36$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.29 | 1,786 | 53.2%950 W · 836 L | +52.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Pistons vs. Kings: O/U 228.5this page
- Pistons vs. KingsPistons won
- Pistons vs. Kings: O/U 227.5Over won
- Pistons vs. Kings: O/U 229.5Over won
- Spread: Pistons (-8.5)Pistons won
- Spread: Pistons (-9.5)Kings won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.