NBA · resolved market
Pistons vs. Kings: O/U 229.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9a74b02856ef3886c1d4f698c985b8f0e5d6c694ff96379484a75dd9b97a89fa
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $298,625
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $298,808
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $298,625 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xaefe…1e4abacked Under | 58c | 280,553$162,601 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162,601.05 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe90b…5da2backed Over | 42c | 253,415$106,434 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146,980.63 | 1,045 | 49%512 W · 533 L | +21.8wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Over | 43c | 20,000$8,525 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,475 | 2,153 | 51.3%1,105 W · 1,048 L | +76.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x733d…1ae7backed Over | 43c | 4,500$1,935 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,565 | 191 | 47.6%91 W · 100 L | +6.9wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 42c | 3,696$1,558 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,138.67 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc31a…31d0backed Under | 54c | 2,000$1,080 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,080 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0394…20e9backed Over | 46c | 2,000$920 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,080 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -3.7wins | -0.14per pick | 49cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x71ea…a8eebacked Over | 46c | 2,000$920 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,080 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb340…58c9backed Under | 54c | 2,000$1,080 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,080 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -2.0wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 58c | 1,286$745 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$744.87 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24da…9561backed Over | 43c | 500$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$285 | 69 | 49.3%34 W · 35 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd947…9b61backed Under | 50c | 400$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 287 | 51.9%149 W · 138 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Over | 44c | 320$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.2 | 1,667 | 52.7%878 W · 789 L | +45.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd397…5052backed Under | 53c | 224.68$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.81 | 271 | 61.3%166 W · 105 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1aa…054ebacked Over | 47c | 200$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106 | 68 | 39.7%27 W · 41 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92cf…8b35backed Under | 55c | 181.82$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1,110 | 52%577 W · 533 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Over | 43c | 173$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.75 | 1,695 | 44.7%758 W · 937 L | -30.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23fe…9788backed Under | 58c | 146.22$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.67 | 526 | 43%226 W · 300 L | -19.4wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5fb3…88c1backed Under | 59c | 100$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59 | 612 | 53.1%325 W · 287 L | -20.0wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa965…3565backed Over | 41c | 100$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59 | 1,911 | 45.4%868 W · 1,043 L | +22.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb583…3428backed Under | 55c | 100$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 85 | 50.6%43 W · 42 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb390…642bbacked Under | 55c | 90.91$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1,661 | 50.3%836 W · 825 L | -14.9wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fb4…8830backed Over | 55c | 72.73$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.73 | 202 | 41.1%83 W · 119 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 48c | 45.9$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.03 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…14d9backed Over | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.48 | 139 | 46.8%65 W · 74 L | +11.6wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Over | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.55 | 2,602 | 50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L | -20.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd6…ab3dbacked Under | 47c | 39.63$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.63 | 807 | 44.1%356 W · 451 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Under | 53c | 39.63$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.83 | 2,361 | 48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Over | 44c | 38.42$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.38 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x20ec…fa43backed Under | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 610 | 56.1%342 W · 268 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Over | 44c | 33.52$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.77 | 1,294 | 48.1%623 W · 671 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa46d…59c4backed Over | 51c | 29.39$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 121 | 49.6%60 W · 61 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2892…71ddbacked Over | 53c | 28.3$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.3 | 256 | 42.2%108 W · 148 L | +5.9wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Pistons vs. Kings: O/U 229.5this page
- Pistons vs. KingsPistons won
- Pistons vs. Kings: O/U 227.5Over won
- Pistons vs. Kings: O/U 228.5Over won
- Spread: Pistons (-8.5)Pistons won
- Spread: Pistons (-9.5)Kings won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.