NBA · resolved market
Spread: Pistons (-9.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf2e42ef1f186415d444e4ddb2d1dd9a80e78b8d654a17c2f659bbc52249568e1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Kingsof Pistons, Kings
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $64,387
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $64,353
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $64,387 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 81 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x68dd…f0b2backed Kings | 50c | 20,523$10,255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,268.33 | 513 | 50.1%257 W · 256 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xead0…f3babacked Kings | 50c | 20,000$10,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,000 | 1,124 | 48.6%546 W · 578 L | +13.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd696…8a49backed Pistons | 50c | 10,553$5,277 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,276.69 | 1,212 | 48.3%586 W · 626 L | -20.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Pistons | 50c | 7,036$3,518 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,518 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1867…92cabacked Pistons | 50c | 7,000$3,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,500.21 | 453 | 48.1%218 W · 235 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8cbb…acb2backed Pistons | 51c | 6,000$3,060 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,060 | 890 | 50.4%449 W · 441 L | +4.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Pistons | 51c | 4,774$2,450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,449.58 | 2,091 | 47.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L | -56.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Pistons | 49c | 3,757$1,832 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,832.34 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed Kings | 48c | 3,473$1,667 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,805.77 | 1,139 | 48.3%550 W · 589 L | +3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked Pistons | 49c | 2,446$1,208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,208.22 | 1,908 | 54.5%1,040 W · 868 L | +53.7wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c85…f893backed Pistons | 48c | 2,000$960 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$960 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -4.2wins | -0.32per pick | 48cpaid | -69.3%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x2cea…3ba8backed Kings | 52c | 2,000$1,040 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$960 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e68…d99bbacked Pistons | 49c | 1,487$729 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$728.63 | 100 | 57%57 W · 43 L | +5.1wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Kings | 50c | 1,040$520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$520 | 1,667 | 52.7%878 W · 789 L | +45.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2bd5…26ccbacked Kings | 53c | 1,000$530 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$470 | 516 | 51%263 W · 253 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Kings | 50c | 966.54$478 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$488.1 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0bd3…c066backed Pistons | 51c | 903.13$459 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$459 | 94 | 50%47 W · 47 L | -6.5wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x05e3…4b87backed Pistons | 47c | 707.55$333 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$332.55 | 478 | 56.7%271 W · 207 L | +11.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Pistons | 46c | 686.26$316 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$315.68 | 4,325 | 47%2,031 W · 2,294 L | -69.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Pistons | 49c | 682.6$332 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$332.34 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed Pistons | 49c | 612$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.88 | 2,435 | 49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L | +30.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Pistons | 51c | 601.61$309 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$309.46 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1244…c851backed Pistons | 49c | 600$294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$294 | 218 | 58.7%128 W · 90 L | +17.1wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8f03…64d6backed Pistons | 48c | 580.49$279 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$278.64 | 1,046 | 51.1%534 W · 512 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb6…fa2cbacked Kings | 54c | 555.56$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255.56 | 218 | 52.8%115 W · 103 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa61f…7993backed Kings | 53c | 500$265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235 | 617 | 47.8%295 W · 322 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Pistons | 46c | 500$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb22…808abacked Kings | 54c | 500$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230 | 956 | 41.7%399 W · 557 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Kings | 50c | 400$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 503 | 46.5%234 W · 269 L | -6.5wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0e2…8e9ebacked Kings | 53c | 377.36$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.36 | 96 | 59.4%57 W · 39 L | +8.6wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Kings | 49c | 330.96$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.79 | 2,630 | 36.7%966 W · 1,664 L | -119.1wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…4f9cbacked Pistons | 47c | 319.15$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 155 | 43.2%67 W · 88 L | -6.2wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Pistons | 49c | 278.05$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.22 | 2,512 | 49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Pistons | 48c | 272$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.56 | 2,045 | 48.4%990 W · 1,055 L | -30.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6f0…5701backed Kings | 12c | 270$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$237.4 | 311 | 44.4%138 W · 173 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a59…eb2ebacked Pistons | 49c | 240$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.6 | 344 | 51.5%177 W · 167 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c49…ca9dbacked Kings | 39c | 235.26$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.26 | 182 | 40.7%74 W · 108 L | -8.7wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Pistons | 50c | 222$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111 | 1,197 | 47.5%569 W · 628 L | -32.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6236…6881backed Pistons | 48c | 210$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.8 | 237 | 48.1%114 W · 123 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a8a…b155backed Pistons | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 116 | 52.6%61 W · 55 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16ce…eba1backed Kings | 7c | 200$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186 | 553 | 16.5%91 W · 462 L | -10.1wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75f3…0e78backed Kings | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.08 | 631 | 42%265 W · 366 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92cf…8b35backed Kings | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.68 | 1,110 | 52%577 W · 533 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43d7…dca3backed Kings | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.68 | 150 | 52.7%79 W · 71 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe025…102fbacked Kings | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.68 | 156 | 49.4%77 W · 79 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce26…8e06backed Pistons | 22c | 170$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.4 | 910 | 50.9%463 W · 447 L | +11.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c94…a43bbacked Pistons | 50c | 152.52$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.26 | 511 | 46.6%238 W · 273 L | -13.7wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Pistons | 61c | 152.1$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.78 | 3,341 | 53.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L | +108.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe0e9…5112backed Pistons | 50c | 140$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 217 | 49.3%107 W · 110 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83a3…6292backed Kings | 54c | 129.63$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.63 | 818 | 45.7%374 W · 444 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Pistons | 56c | 127.75$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.22 | 2,208 | 46.6%1,030 W · 1,178 L | +42.7wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbd…3d15backed Kings | 54c | 125.01$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.5 | 762 | 47.1%359 W · 403 L | +2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb375…59d6backed Pistons | 48c | 115.64$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.18 | 86 | 52.3%45 W · 41 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc079…8881backed Kings | 45c | 111$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.05 | 77 | 53.2%41 W · 36 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90c5…534cbacked Pistons | 49c | 100$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 628 | 48.7%306 W · 322 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b9b…bc4abacked Kings | 52c | 100$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 378 | 50.3%190 W · 188 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee20…5b37backed Kings | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 503 | 47.9%241 W · 262 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5179…2b29backed Pistons | 49c | 90$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.1 | 623 | 49.6%309 W · 314 L | +6.5wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Kings | 23c | 86$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.1 | 1,695 | 44.7%758 W · 937 L | -30.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7aed…38cbbacked Kings | 52c | 78$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.44 | 106 | 52.8%56 W · 50 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd079…8db3backed Pistons | 49c | 72$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.28 | 317 | 54.6%173 W · 144 L | +16.9wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4d58…2073backed Pistons | 49c | 72$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.28 | 342 | 54.1%185 W · 157 L | +16.5wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Kings | 52c | 66.51$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.84 | 3,668 | 41.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L | -70.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd6…ab3dbacked Pistons | 43c | 66$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.38 | 807 | 44.1%356 W · 451 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc95f…357fbacked Pistons | 47c | 58$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.26 | 168 | 52.4%88 W · 80 L | +6.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc064…6fa8backed Kings | 41c | 55$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.45 | 152 | 48%73 W · 79 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b5…7e80backed Kings | 72c | 55$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.5 | 1,055 | 49.9%526 W · 529 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa60b…c728backed Pistons | 49c | 54$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.46 | 340 | 53.8%183 W · 157 L | +16.7wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x41ed…1da9backed Pistons | 49c | 54$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.46 | 331 | 47.4%157 W · 174 L | -6.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ccc…e7e8backed Kings | 49c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 539 | 51.6%278 W · 261 L | +20.3wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7590…d6e0backed Kings | 54c | 46.3$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.3 | 41 | 58.5%24 W · 17 L | +2.9wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x23fe…9788backed Pistons | 50c | 44.6$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.33 | 526 | 43%226 W · 300 L | -19.4wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Kings | 51c | 42$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.58 | 1,109 | 41.8%464 W · 645 L | -20.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Pistons | 49c | 40.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2,602 | 50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L | -20.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e47…a7abbacked Kings | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 498 | 52.4%261 W · 237 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3839…a64dbacked Kings | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.46 | 33 | 75.8%25 W · 8 L | +7.9wins | +0.24per pick | 52cpaid | +48%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x20ec…fa43backed Kings | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 610 | 56.1%342 W · 268 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa48d…b023backed Pistons | 49c | 36$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.64 | 272 | 51.1%139 W · 133 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2692…2698backed Pistons | 49c | 36$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.64 | 271 | 50.2%136 W · 135 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81a4…da1fbacked Kings | 66c | 30.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.3 | 114 | 43%49 W · 65 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…22ebbacked Kings | 53c | 26.42$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.42 | 599 | 48.4%290 W · 309 L | -8.2wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Pistons (-9.5)this page
- Pistons vs. KingsPistons won
- Pistons vs. Kings: O/U 227.5Over won
- Pistons vs. Kings: O/U 228.5Over won
- Pistons vs. Kings: O/U 229.5Over won
- Spread: Pistons (-8.5)Pistons won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.