Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 31°C on July 26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x074592094994474de71d348aeb682cae9ea9e22ad14e0e300f41ca7483d74917
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,709
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,745
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,709 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 70 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 36c | 1,194$433 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$433.3 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 64c | 387.19$248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.36 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked Yes | 37c | 321.94$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.84 | 722 | 22.3%161 W · 561 L | -37.3wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 64c | 300$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 64c | 300$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4e3…5296backed Yes | 38c | 266.62$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 203 | 39.9%81 W · 122 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 33c | 247.12$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.55 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 33c | 232.83$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.63 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcce9…2199backed No | 71c | 209$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.71 | 75 | 57.3%43 W · 32 L | +6.1wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 11c | 198.06$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.75 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfbd…5a6cbacked Yes | 14c | 179.55$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.19 | 635 | 38.4%244 W · 391 L | +12.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14ad…69f5backed No | 63c | 157.89$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.89 | 267 | 44.2%118 W · 149 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 60c | 144.57$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.12 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed Yes | 10c | 130$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.7 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 63c | 114.75$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.68 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e89…e7edbacked Yes | 40c | 104.65$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.03 | 547 | 35.5%194 W · 353 L | +11.5wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 29c | 103.77$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.35 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1044…d67abacked Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.72 | 37 | 21.6%8 W · 29 L | -6.2wins | -0.17per pick | 38cpaid | -58%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4476…c5fcbacked Yes | 37c | 100$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 425 | 47.5%202 W · 223 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xedee…67e6backed No | 54c | 100$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaddf…b8febacked No | 66c | 90.91$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.91 | 286 | 66.8%191 W · 95 L | +9.1wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf71a…fa40backed Yes | 36c | 90$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.7 | 190 | 42.6%81 W · 109 L | -11.9wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 66c | 80$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.6 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed No | 69c | 78.4$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.65 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 69c | 70$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.5 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0fe9…56d9backed No | 72c | 70$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.65 | 55 | 70.9%39 W · 16 L | +4.7wins | +0.09per pick | 62cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x186c…1d32backed Yes | 32c | 54.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.8wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf028…6c6bbacked Yes | 38c | 50.97$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.33 | 138 | 37%51 W · 87 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 62c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.8 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 37c | 48.68$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked No | 72c | 47.14$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.25 | 815 | 58.5%477 W · 338 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ec6…b459backed Yes | 35c | 41.9$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.67 | 381 | 46.5%177 W · 204 L | +19.8wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 63c | 40.84$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.08 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc50c…8d41backed No | 61c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.8 | 423 | 66.4%281 W · 142 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x053b…d0fabacked Yes | 31c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 65 | 36.9%24 W · 41 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 59c | 39.84$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.23 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ea5…0b15backed Yes | 31c | 38.71$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 54 | 38.9%21 W · 33 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x48c0…53d5backed Yes | 41c | 38$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.58 | 78 | 47.4%37 W · 41 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdaeb…0d2fbacked Yes | 34c | 36.1$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.12 | 528 | 28%148 W · 380 L | -57.1wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…d572backed No | 58c | 31.87$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.27 | 374 | 65.2%244 W · 130 L | +23.4wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 65c | 31.69$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.11 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 67c | 31.49$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.38 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58ea…08e0backed No | 78c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 36 | 61.1%22 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 65c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.6 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f1f…eb96backed No | 67c | 29.81$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.79 | 231 | 46.3%107 W · 124 L | -8.6wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2dbe…4f51backed No | 69c | 28.86$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.86 | 91 | 50.5%46 W · 45 L | -4.4wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe396…dce1backed No | 73c | 28.13$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 236 | 66.1%156 W · 80 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 71c | 28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.12 | 995 | 71.1%707 W · 288 L | +22.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbad6…ae20backed Yes | 39c | 25.49$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 63c | 24$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.88 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 63c | 23.88$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.82 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb07e…e682backed No | 66c | 23$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.87 | 258 | 68.2%176 W · 82 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa016…67c2backed No | 61c | 22.93$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.9 | 511 | 56.6%289 W · 222 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9009…1621backed No | 57c | 22.5$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 196 | 63.3%124 W · 72 L | +9.8wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc50c…3017backed No | 64c | 21.87$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.87 | 152 | 58.6%89 W · 63 L | -8.5wins | -0.06per pick | 64cpaid | -11%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.94 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb924…0803backed No | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 260 | 67.3%175 W · 85 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa86f…022cbacked No | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 397 | 68.8%273 W · 124 L | +11.3wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed No | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 1,043 | 62.9%656 W · 387 L | -11.9wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x989e…aa30backed No | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 147 | 45.6%67 W · 80 L | -7.5wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked No | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 809 | 62.1%502 W · 307 L | -22.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb3cf…ea22backed No | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 48 | 47.9%23 W · 25 L | -6.1wins | -0.13per pick | 61cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe54c…2c69backed No | 62c | 17$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 255 | 60.8%155 W · 100 L | +16.2wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +14%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 60c | 16.93$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.77 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1c…3f79backed No | 62c | 16.69$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.26 | 493 | 59%291 W · 202 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 66c | 15.67$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.33 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7a84…7455backed No | 67c | 15.07$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.97 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 31°C on July 26?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C or below on July 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on July 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on July 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 30°C on July 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 32°C on July 26?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 33°C on July 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 34°C on July 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 35°C on July 26?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.