Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 32°C on July 26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa6e4f91b7adeb4b923e90271b1aaedf19f49883c1779b7b18fabed9791cc0f0a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,421
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,098
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,421 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 106 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4829…97ebbacked Yes | 71c | 642.79$458 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.4 | 399 | 51.1%204 W · 195 L | +14.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 70c | 548.51$382 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$382.14 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1546…778bbacked No | 53c | 538.56$287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$286.59 | 354 | 29.9%106 W · 248 L | -17.6wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4577…f436backed No | 61c | 480.6$292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$292.37 | 55 | 34.5%19 W · 36 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 19c | 475.74$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.44 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 31c | 467.05$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$321.05 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 22c | 461.94$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$359.26 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8847…262dbacked Yes | 49c | 381.08$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.37 | 252 | 30.6%77 W · 175 L | +21.0wins | +0.08per pick | 22cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x37de…f512backed No | 42c | 379.98$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.79 | 496 | 46%228 W · 268 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa8c…9169backed Yes | 75c | 318.81$241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.28 | 402 | 65.9%265 W · 137 L | +31.7wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 43c | 269.91$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.41 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 30c | 259.17$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.33 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 28c | 257.46$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.54 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked No | 57c | 253.45$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.56 | 722 | 22.3%161 W · 561 L | -37.3wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d7…a338backed Yes | 67c | 235.75$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.97 | 290 | 37.9%110 W · 180 L | +29.1wins | +0.10per pick | 28cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed No | 67c | 228.09$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.87 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0861…8e40backed Yes | 28c | 223.42$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.23 | 80 | 30%24 W · 56 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80e1…47a8backed No | 77c | 218.72$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.14 | 242 | 62.4%151 W · 91 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdfbd…5a6cbacked Yes | 29c | 208.79$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.3 | 635 | 38.4%244 W · 391 L | +12.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf71a…fa40backed Yes | 35c | 200.83$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.61 | 190 | 42.6%81 W · 109 L | -11.9wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe396…dce1backed No | 70c | 197.58$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.15 | 236 | 66.1%156 W · 80 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb5f8…8e32backed Yes | 63c | 174.98$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.87 | 179 | 56.4%101 W · 78 L | +13.1wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7e86…4c0fbacked Yes | 29c | 166.09$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.09 | 111 | 27%30 W · 81 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc78d…e9f0backed Yes | 25c | 153.03$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.03 | 78 | 24.4%19 W · 59 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 27c | 152.75$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.8 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 18c | 148.98$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.27 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 34c | 143.21$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.16 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a03…84afbacked Yes | 34c | 136.97$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.09 | 369 | 30.6%113 W · 256 L | +11.9wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2f…e889backed Yes | 76c | 136.44$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.51 | 228 | 49.6%113 W · 115 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 27c | 134.43$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.94 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 46c | 132$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.43 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcce9…2199backed Yes | 30c | 127.34$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.04 | 75 | 57.3%43 W · 32 L | +6.1wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8ec6…b459backed No | 31c | 124.16$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.12 | 381 | 46.5%177 W · 204 L | +19.8wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 76c | 115.49$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.1 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 28c | 100.2$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.85 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x108a…8159backed Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.2 | 587 | 32.9%193 W · 394 L | +34.4wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5641…6d0dbacked No | 21c | 87.29$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.59 | 563 | 22.9%129 W · 434 L | -32.9wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x52dc…33c9backed Yes | 32c | 77.06$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.06 | 769 | 36.3%279 W · 490 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed No | 68c | 76.04$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.55 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed No | 71c | 72.35$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.37 | 905 | 55.6%503 W · 402 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8f2…96d7backed Yes | 45c | 66.61$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.61 | 244 | 66.8%163 W · 81 L | +20.2wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 72c | 62.5$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f07…7573backed Yes | 23c | 59$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.35 | 27 | 18.5%5 W · 22 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | +37.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7bbe…b95ebacked No | 73c | 58.6$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.75 | 419 | 66.6%279 W · 140 L | +36.9wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2b73…85d5backed No | 22c | 57.87$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x186c…1d32backed Yes | 34c | 54.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.29 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.8wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd71…1281backed Yes | 79c | 53.96$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.15 | 539 | 51.9%280 W · 259 L | +54.4wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8c56…3ba4backed No | 77c | 53.56$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.04 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +42.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 46c | 53.4$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.63 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…d572backed No | 27c | 52.46$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.08 | 374 | 65.2%244 W · 130 L | +23.4wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 27c | 50.25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.68 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.07 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05e1…4c1ebacked No | 80c | 50$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.8 | 496 | 75.4%374 W · 122 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 75c | 46.85$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.97 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb546…ca22backed No | 26c | 45.17$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.58 | 206 | 60.2%124 W · 82 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfdd6…ac42backed Yes | 29c | 45.15$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.25 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 33cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8cd…4b4dbacked Yes | 79c | 45.08$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.34 | 13 | 92.3%12 W · 1 L | +3.0wins | +0.23per pick | 69cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x13d3…415ebacked No | 78c | 43$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.63 | 422 | 53.1%224 W · 198 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf028…6c6bbacked Yes | 26c | 40.77$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.17 | 138 | 37%51 W · 87 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94de…e3cabacked Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 50 | 42%21 W · 29 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ab7…0bd3backed Yes | 33c | 40$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.9 | 445 | 36.6%163 W · 282 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 75c | 40$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed Yes | 27c | 40$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.3 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 66c | 39.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.4 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 36c | 38.92$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.94 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf64a…db74backed Yes | 60c | 35$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 333 | 49.8%166 W · 167 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed No | 62c | 34.97$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.68 | 899 | 51.6%464 W · 435 L | -40.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x885f…7bf9backed No | 73c | 34.04$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.8 | 546 | 56.4%308 W · 238 L | +15.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f99…6734backed No | 79c | 34$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.86 | 548 | 53.1%291 W · 257 L | -28.7wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 33c | 33.97$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.34 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 74c | 31.69$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc176…5d01backed No | 77c | 31.31$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 104 | 63.5%66 W · 38 L | +6.1wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcee6…0a45backed No | 77c | 30.39$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.45 | 213 | 70.9%151 W · 62 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 72cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2dbe…4f51backed No | 66c | 30.3$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 91 | 50.5%46 W · 45 L | -4.4wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 73c | 30$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.9 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 75c | 30$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 72c | 30$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.45 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 49c | 29$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.08 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11a4…f434backed No | 60c | 29$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 475 | 69.5%330 W · 145 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09fe…76eebacked No | 49c | 27.59$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.58 | 50 | 62%31 W · 19 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99ef…ab48backed Yes | 45c | 27.54$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.15 | 66 | 53%35 W · 31 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 74c | 27.41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.29 | 995 | 71.1%707 W · 288 L | +22.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75e8…2e62backed No | 72c | 27$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.44 | 49 | 71.4%35 W · 14 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 67cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked No | 52c | 26.97$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.05 | 926 | 2.5%23 W · 903 L | -379.9wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 6-0.40 edge/pick |
| 0x7903…57f6backed No | 79c | 26$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.54 | 277 | 69%191 W · 86 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 74c | 26$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 67c | 25.8$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.31 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 78c | 25.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.85 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd74…76b9backed Yes | 40c | 25.25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.25 | 20 | 90%18 W · 2 L | +5.0wins | +0.25per pick | 65cpaid | +48.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked Yes | 74c | 24.94$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.45 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 75c | 23.85$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.96 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfddf…1686backed No | 70c | 22$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 641 | 67.6%433 W · 208 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb07e…e682backed No | 72c | 22$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.87 | 258 | 68.2%176 W · 82 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf18c…18c1backed No | 79c | 21$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.59 | 439 | 59.5%261 W · 178 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1b3…931cbacked No | 73c | 20.43$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 80 | 67.5%54 W · 26 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0066…20a1backed No | 76c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 88 | 65.9%58 W · 30 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 72c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.35 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed No | 68c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.55 | 896 | 61.7%553 W · 343 L | +15.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 19.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf01d…bb31backed No | 72c | 18.5$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.32 | 162 | 72.2%117 W · 45 L | +6.7wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 32°C on July 26?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C or below on July 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on July 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on July 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 30°C on July 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 31°C on July 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 33°C on July 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 34°C on July 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 35°C on July 26?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.