Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 96-97°F on July 18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x07468563e16c90b9e67f2bc41f8577b0e8d6f2ae66d138a8b72b9767cc17f401
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,282
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,888
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,282 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7b20…bc23backed No | 61c | 797.72$483 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$483.27 | 811 | 65.8%534 W · 277 L | -37.1wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 39c | 541.92$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$332.92 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 40c | 359.61$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.22 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked Yes | 49c | 260$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.35 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdfbd…5a6cbacked Yes | 52c | 250.94$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.31 | 635 | 38.4%244 W · 391 L | +12.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 61c | 246$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.06 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 39c | 237.11$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.16 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 41c | 236.38$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.12 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x341b…b929backed Yes | 60c | 223$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.3 | 56 | 66.1%37 W · 19 L | +4.8wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x17e0…fe5bbacked Yes | 55c | 137.8$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.68 | 310 | 43.2%134 W · 176 L | +9.9wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed Yes | 40c | 135.31$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.04 | 841 | 24%202 W · 639 L | -35.9wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 58c | 116.3$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.45 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 49c | 91.95$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.43 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 51c | 90.43$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.47 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 53c | 85.99$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.58 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked No | 52c | 79$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.75 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 53c | 78.77$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.14 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed Yes | 41c | 76.33$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.04 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked Yes | 40c | 71.45$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.87 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked Yes | 47c | 67.19$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.61 | 815 | 58.5%477 W · 338 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 53c | 63.69$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.51 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca07…6269backed Yes | 41c | 62.1$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.64 | 716 | 49.4%354 W · 362 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 50c | 60$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.98 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed No | 59c | 54.64$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.24 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xacb0…4346backed Yes | 47c | 53$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.09 | 159 | 48.4%77 W · 82 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x286d…825abacked Yes | 41c | 52.64$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.06 | 625 | 55.2%345 W · 280 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked No | 61c | 50$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.5 | 927 | 61.7%572 W · 355 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 45c | 49.8$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.6 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 56c | 47.99$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.69 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 45c | 47$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.34 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 29c | 45.94$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.51 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc179…5cdebacked Yes | 55c | 45.44$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.44 | 289 | 46%133 W · 156 L | +14.6wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 50c | 38.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.41 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 51c | 37.64$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.15 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 38c | 36.95$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x15e9…dacdbacked Yes | 57c | 35.21$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.03 | 299 | 48.2%144 W · 155 L | +28.2wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 57c | 31.59$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.88 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 51c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.76 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 62c | 29.54$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.24 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3da3…0fdcbacked No | 51c | 29.2$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.81 | 1,024 | 25%256 W · 768 L | +20.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed Yes | 39c | 29$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.69 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1201…005bbacked No | 41c | 28.5$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.56 | 167 | 9.6%16 W · 151 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3e1…ac51backed No | 51c | 27.96$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.13 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc94c…9308backed No | 59c | 27.61$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.29 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb80c…827bbacked No | 64c | 26$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.64 | 277 | 54.9%152 W · 125 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7fc1…90cfbacked Yes | 42c | 25.12$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.57 | 51 | 33.3%17 W · 34 L | -5.0wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -22%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb546…ca22backed No | 47c | 23.6$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.01 | 206 | 60.2%124 W · 82 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3901…9761backed No | 61c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 552 | 61.6%340 W · 212 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x874b…4af0backed Yes | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 92 | 38%35 W · 57 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -15%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4eab…2caabacked Yes | 53c | 19.23$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.1 | 445 | 67%298 W · 147 L | +17.6wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x194b…2a11backed Yes | 53c | 19.23$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.1 | 288 | 66.3%191 W · 97 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1894…a936backed Yes | 68c | 18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.7 | 667 | 58%387 W · 280 L | +48.0wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2706…c6bebacked No | 69c | 16.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.31 | 318 | 66%210 W · 108 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 96-97°F on July 18?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on July 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 94-95°F on July 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 98-99°F on July 18?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.