Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 94-95°F on July 18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe201e5c610d27b630e3e0586f2c2c44769a0f0de96f36fb2a6059b8b5afb45e9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,720
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,649
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,720 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x09b4…e56dbacked Yes | 21c | 614.41$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.73 | 720 | 42.2%304 W · 416 L | +26.5wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed No | 70c | 570.36$398 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.28 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x17e0…fe5bbacked Yes | 16c | 440.7$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.3 | 310 | 43.2%134 W · 176 L | +9.9wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ecf…af11backed No | 74c | 391.19$290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.48 | 381 | 38.6%147 W · 234 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 80c | 339.78$271 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.77 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes | 34c | 295.99$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 644 | 46.4%299 W · 345 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x61b9…07dfbacked Yes | 28c | 223.74$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.4 | 104 | 47.1%49 W · 55 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 26c | 209.65$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.38 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 43c | 185.9$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.23 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No | 64c | 175.9$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.43 | 926 | 78.2%724 W · 202 L | +51.2wins | +0.06per pick | 73cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca07…6269backed Yes | 30c | 170$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 716 | 49.4%354 W · 362 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c6…2b25backed No | 59c | 156.37$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.11 | 329 | 58.7%193 W · 136 L | +17.9wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x341b…b929backed No | 76c | 132.29$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.29 | 56 | 66.1%37 W · 19 L | +4.8wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5548…9cc6backed No | 74c | 123.9$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.08 | 197 | 57.4%113 W · 84 L | +11.9wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdfbd…5a6cbacked Yes | 10c | 104.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.33 | 635 | 38.4%244 W · 391 L | +12.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd78c…a66ebacked Yes | 31c | 100$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 728 | 37.8%275 W · 453 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02e9…9a18backed Yes | 36c | 94.7$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.09 | 47 | 53.2%25 W · 22 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 28c | 86.2$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.54 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed No | 57c | 83.23$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.96 | 841 | 24%202 W · 639 L | -35.9wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa717…faeabacked Yes | 46c | 83.18$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.49 | 311 | 70.7%220 W · 91 L | +42.3wins | +0.14per pick | 57cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed Yes | 33c | 82.22$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.13 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31af…5c86backed Yes | 25c | 78.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 318 | 36.8%117 W · 201 L | +8.2wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 73c | 76.8$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.79 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad7…347abacked Yes | 52c | 76.19$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.39 | 729 | 52.4%382 W · 347 L | +34.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 30c | 75$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 68c | 73.59$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.87 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 72c | 72.43$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.28 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 68c | 72.21$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.9 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 73c | 68$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.29 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked Yes | 35c | 66.73$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.3 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f99…6734backed No | 79c | 66$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.86 | 548 | 53.1%291 W · 257 L | -28.7wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf18c…18c1backed No | 79c | 66$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.86 | 439 | 59.5%261 W · 178 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x874b…4af0backed Yes | 16c | 65.21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.66 | 92 | 38%35 W · 57 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -15%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 78c | 63.93$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.38 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 72c | 63.69$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.89 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b1…79d7backed No | 65c | 63.3$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.92 | 889 | 73.2%651 W · 238 L | +20.3wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 23c | 61.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.55 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 79c | 57$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.9 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 24c | 50.63$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.94 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1f…4877backed Yes | 20c | 50.4$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 801 | 30.8%247 W · 554 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 72c | 49.47$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.66 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc295…c520backed Yes | 57c | 48.18$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.48 | 44 | 63.6%28 W · 16 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc179…5cdebacked Yes | 34c | 44.71$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 289 | 46%133 W · 156 L | +14.6wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3ec0…a64abacked Yes | 40c | 43.4$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.24 | 188 | 62.8%118 W · 70 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcee6…0a45backed No | 69c | 42$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.02 | 213 | 70.9%151 W · 62 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 72cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed No | 59c | 41.25$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.76 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 78c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b43…951fbacked Yes | 36c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 27 | 18.5%5 W · 22 L | -3.6wins | -0.13per pick | 32cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 64c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8adb…9e1dbacked No | 66c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.6 | 169 | 46.7%79 W · 90 L | -13.5wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd2…42efbacked No | 66c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.6 | 155 | 45.2%70 W · 85 L | -13.9wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 71c | 35$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.05 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 72c | 33.01$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.13 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 78c | 32.53$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.29 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 70c | 32$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 69c | 31.59$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.84 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 80c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.1 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 29.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 50c | 26.3$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.24 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xec21…c83fbacked No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 71 | 66.2%47 W · 24 L | -8.2wins | -0.12per pick | 78cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb546…ca22backed No | 74c | 23.81$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.11 | 206 | 60.2%124 W · 82 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ddb…6a89backed Yes | 50c | 21.83$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 384 | 54.9%211 W · 173 L | +26.3wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4af9…3144backed No | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 219 | 50.7%111 W · 108 L | -10.6wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x989e…aa30backed No | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 147 | 45.6%67 W · 80 L | -7.5wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6236…6881backed No | 69c | 19.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 293 | 54.3%159 W · 134 L | -25.6wins | -0.09per pick | 63cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1461…b97ebacked No | 75c | 15.71$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.01 | 280 | 35.4%99 W · 181 L | -69.3wins | -0.25per pick | 60cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 25-0.23 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 94-95°F on July 18?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on July 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 96-97°F on July 18?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 98-99°F on July 18?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.