Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 62-63°F on May 5?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x076893976d43800c81245f97f3add0c477cb399f77d1f8d5ea6d5567113aff19
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,003
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,249
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,003 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 83 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 55c | 589.37$323 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$323.02 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3f2…34d0backed Yes | 71c | 324.79$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.56 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17f0…20febacked Yes | 5c | 314.31$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.72 | 151 | 6.6%10 W · 141 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x506c…840cbacked Yes | 59c | 268.9$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.51 | 151 | 52.3%79 W · 72 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 51c | 219.85$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.1 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84c3…35d4backed No | 46c | 194$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.85 | 212 | 68.4%145 W · 67 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked No | 41c | 160.36$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.05 | 633 | 23.9%151 W · 482 L | -20.0wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 45c | 150.11$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.08 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x951c…d8c7backed Yes | 55c | 149.96$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.98 | 683 | 35.4%242 W · 441 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 50c | 143.91$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.31 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a3b…957bbacked No | 55c | 142.53$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.23 | 370 | 56.5%209 W · 161 L | +31.7wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +19%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 40c | 141.32$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.33 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 59c | 135.67$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x213e…5e0fbacked Yes | 51c | 119.97$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.9 | 657 | 49.8%327 W · 330 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 29c | 117$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.99 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 41c | 111.59$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.12 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 37c | 107.47$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.47 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 47c | 102.98$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.4 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6282…978bbacked No | 53c | 102$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.73 | 10 | 90%9 W · 1 L | +2.8wins | +0.28per pick | 62cpaid | +47.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa0b1…6754backed Yes | 47c | 99.99$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 354 | 65%230 W · 124 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 37c | 81.82$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.96 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x258b…db84backed Yes | 61c | 81.13$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.75 | 57 | 28.1%16 W · 41 L | -3.5wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x40b0…f139backed Yes | 55c | 80$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.2 | 297 | 40.7%121 W · 176 L | +11.4wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 48c | 80$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.5 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x831a…ad82backed No | 55c | 78$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.86 | 196 | 48.5%95 W · 101 L | +9.9wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfa76…a43cbacked No | 42c | 70.83$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.06 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x376a…d270backed No | 67c | 67.21$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.21 | 48 | 89.6%43 W · 5 L | +14.9wins | +0.31per pick | 59cpaid | +78%equal weight | 73+0.20 edge/pick |
| 0xa79a…4883backed No | 75c | 67.05$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.05 | 75 | 34.7%26 W · 49 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2869…527dbacked Yes | 45c | 61.28$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.7 | 937 | 34.9%327 W · 610 L | -203.5wins | -0.22per pick | 57cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xc910…ef63backed No | 53c | 60.68$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.68 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 43c | 58.35$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.5 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcaaa…da37backed No | 40c | 54.45$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.84 | 446 | 59%263 W · 183 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 39c | 54$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.94 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc84f…16e9backed No | 39c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.5 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.30per pick | 50cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 49.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.99 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbf…f003backed Yes | 57c | 48.3$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.37 | 306 | 52.6%161 W · 145 L | +10.8wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa1f…af40backed Yes | 53c | 46.85$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 48 | 37.5%18 W · 30 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 54c | 45.71$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.86 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef14…3edabacked Yes | 66c | 45.61$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 177 | 44.6%79 W · 98 L | -10.1wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed No | 50c | 45.4$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.7 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e99…b482backed Yes | 58c | 45$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.2 | 425 | 44%187 W · 238 L | +15.1wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked Yes | 55c | 41.43$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.62 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ba3…57bcbacked No | 39c | 41$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.2 | 391 | 59.8%234 W · 157 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8215…1279backed No | 39c | 40.4$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.84 | 387 | 58.7%227 W · 160 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa139…5bc2backed Yes | 63c | 40.38$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.4 | 112 | 40.2%45 W · 67 L | -6.8wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf2bb…ae21backed Yes | 46c | 39.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 353 | 62.9%222 W · 131 L | +16.9wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f3c…758dbacked Yes | 47c | 39.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.8 | 113 | 37.2%42 W · 71 L | +8.1wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…9d98backed No | 51c | 38.13$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.63 | 822 | 68.7%565 W · 257 L | +72.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x52d7…0ff9backed No | 42c | 37.96$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.89 | 382 | 58.9%225 W · 157 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…b2b8backed Yes | 49c | 35.88$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.43 | 154 | 54.5%84 W · 70 L | +5.5wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 36c | 35.66$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.86 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 42c | 34.48$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.03 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x353b…e535backed Yes | 64c | 34.35$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 65 | 47.7%31 W · 34 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x592e…2030backed Yes | 62c | 32.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 55 | 60%33 W · 22 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 53c | 31.57$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.84 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9db…6789backed No | 52c | 30.75$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.85 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…3de8backed No | 39c | 30.73$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.73 | 685 | 21.5%147 W · 538 L | +12.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8739…8d70backed Yes | 35c | 30.71$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.75 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +51.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa22f…af41backed No | 40c | 30.29$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.29 | 120 | 57.5%69 W · 51 L | -8.1wins | -0.07per pick | 64cpaid | -11%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 50c | 30.01$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.01 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 66c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.71 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked Yes | 54c | 28.72$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.51 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0b18…2639backed Yes | 51c | 28.59$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.58 | 438 | 42%184 W · 254 L | -14.7wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4f9…8d24backed No | 37c | 28$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.56 | 477 | 38.8%185 W · 292 L | +18.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe14a…c6c8backed No | 52c | 27.38$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.14 | 64 | 59.4%38 W · 26 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9410…9160backed Yes | 52c | 26.88$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.05 | 420 | 49%206 W · 214 L | -15.9wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 53c | 26.75$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.22 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x77bd…e48fbacked Yes | 53c | 25.86$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.66 | 209 | 28.7%60 W · 149 L | -45.3wins | -0.22per pick | 50cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 28-0.19 edge/pick |
| 0x8ed5…7c3abacked Yes | 54c | 25.48$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.83 | 200 | 37%74 W · 126 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 79c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.25 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0173…d05dbacked No | 45c | 25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 66cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8795…b84fbacked No | 43c | 24.95$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.11 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked Yes | 50c | 24.22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.11 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 49c | 24.2$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.36 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8f6…a71bbacked No | 55c | 21.82$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.82 | 33 | 66.7%22 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x37e4…ab98backed Yes | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 18 | 77.8%14 W · 4 L | +2.4wins | +0.13per pick | 64cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3663…d13ebacked No | 52c | 19.89$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.55 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -3.8wins | -0.20per pick | 36cpaid | -63.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5814…bbfabacked No | 53c | 19$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.93 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.19per pick | 62cpaid | -19%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef2e…10c3backed Yes | 60c | 19$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.32 | 402 | 42.5%171 W · 231 L | -12.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84b9…7f7fbacked Yes | 63c | 18.52$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.75 | 357 | 42.9%153 W · 204 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb732…6900backed No | 57c | 17.77$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.64 | 412 | 58.3%240 W · 172 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6192…48efbacked Yes | 75c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 88 | 56.8%50 W · 38 L | -5.0wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -11%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 62-63°F on May 5?this page
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 66°F or higher on May 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 58-59°F on May 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 60-61°F on May 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 64-65°F on May 5?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.