World Politics · resolved market
Will Reform UK win at least 2000 council seat elections in the 2026 United Kingdom local elections?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x076ccd097c633ce50d4b9540eee1c006455a4c1d46b731111191a965aa320b0c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,209
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,936
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,209 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x206b…3c33backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f5d…b72fbacked Yes | 16c | 3,408$545 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$545.28 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.18per pick | 15cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x062f…823abacked Yes | 18c | 1,000$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1715…f5f7backed No | 66c | 759.6$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$259.6 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +40.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bbd…6e72backed Yes | 33c | 675.13$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.46 | 83 | 54.2%45 W · 38 L | +18.2wins | +0.22per pick | 32cpaid | +66.4%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x9163…82aebacked Yes | 37c | 470.13$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.46 | 227 | 25.1%57 W · 170 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a22…17a6backed Yes | 37c | 412.64$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153 | 54 | 46.3%25 W · 29 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b62…438cbacked No | 62c | 283.86$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.1 | 125 | 56.8%71 W · 54 L | +12.5wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 16c | 254.58$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.76 | 1,318 | 43.9%579 W · 739 L | -26.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Yes | 24c | 205.01$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.15 | 380 | 23.9%91 W · 289 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90ee…801bbacked Yes | 18c | 200$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x823e…fc4fbacked No | 76c | 200$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +68%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30a0…a458backed No | 51c | 196.2$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.61 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | +8.0wins | +0.20per pick | 33cpaid | +105%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes | 35c | 176.42$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.21 | 371 | 17.8%66 W · 305 L | -18.9wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 18c | 169.3$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.47 | 316 | 35.1%111 W · 205 L | -11.1wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 25c | 153$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.59 | 1,431 | 10.1%145 W · 1,286 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac2d…a9c4backed Yes | 46c | 152.69$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.24 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30d9…7c7bbacked No | 62c | 140$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.38 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +2.1wins | +0.41per pick | 39cpaid | +102.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2b9d…adc0backed No | 64c | 131.14$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.49 | 134 | 44.8%60 W · 74 L | +17.1wins | +0.13per pick | 32cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x90ff…4fe2backed No | 75c | 124$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 18 | 77.8%14 W · 4 L | +2.8wins | +0.15per pick | 62cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x95e9…5bb2backed Yes | 57c | 123.07$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 43c | 115.81$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.13 | 168 | 34.5%58 W · 110 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba5b…10ebbacked Yes | 40c | 113.07$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b44…be1ebacked No | 76c | 109.82$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.79 | 46 | 50%23 W · 23 L | +3.9wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +18%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed Yes | 48c | 106.02$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.89 | 200 | 51.5%103 W · 97 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x14b2…ac16backed Yes | 36c | 102.77$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc26…4b92backed Yes | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.85 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +1.5wins | +0.10per pick | 17cpaid | +635.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 22c | 77.61$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.39 | 990 | 17.2%170 W · 820 L | -148.8wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 34-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x57a5…5097backed No | 47c | 77.06$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.66 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 38c | 69.45$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.48 | 394 | 14%55 W · 339 L | -71.9wins | -0.18per pick | 32cpaid | -73.1%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x4eb5…7588backed No | 80c | 62$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.4 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.29per pick | 46cpaid | +247.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed Yes | 38c | 59.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 133 | 48.1%64 W · 69 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e71…39cebacked Yes | 26c | 58.53$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 30 | 20%6 W · 24 L | -4.4wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b8…4bdfbacked Yes | 35c | 53.34$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.87 | 47 | 21.3%10 W · 37 L | +4.4wins | +0.09per pick | 12cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2a9a…10ffbacked Yes | 32c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7e0…c1bbbacked No | 50c | 39.68$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.68 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e4…471abacked No | 41c | 39.55$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.36 | 150 | 22.7%34 W · 116 L | +8.6wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +43%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b04…f467backed Yes | 63c | 36.62$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.07 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.1wins | -0.34per pick | 51cpaid | -77.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 37c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.9 | 1,022 | 28%286 W · 736 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb1…ec7cbacked Yes | 37c | 28.37$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd529…4ec1backed Yes | 51c | 23.82$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 66c | 23$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.82 | 193 | 15.5%30 W · 163 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 274 | 38.3%105 W · 169 L | -32.3wins | -0.12per pick | 50cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b1…5614backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked No | 62c | 17.18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.48 | 52 | 53.8%28 W · 24 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -10%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Reform UK win at least 2000 council seat elections in the 2026 United Kingdom local elections?this page
- Will Reform UK win at least 1600 council seat elections in the 2026 United Kingdom local elections?No won
- Will Reform UK win at least 1800 council seat elections in the 2026 United Kingdom local elections?No won
- Will Reform UK win at least 2200 council seat elections in the 2026 United Kingdom local elections?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.