World Politics · resolved market
Will Reform UK win at least 1800 council seat elections in the 2026 United Kingdom local elections?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1613a43a2c42f3bb327e6c906e361c8662c0db1d48e3fd5c3646083bae86df30
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,158
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,445
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,158 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc474…d697backed Yes | 2c | 1,429$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.1 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 16cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd8e…f023backed No | 65c | 1,224$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$423.96 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x062f…823abacked Yes | 34c | 999.52$345 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$344.8 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a22…17a6backed Yes | 50c | 921.95$460 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$460 | 54 | 46.3%25 W · 29 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d61…1fa7backed No | 71c | 633.88$449 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.22 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +2.1wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x90ff…4fe2backed No | 67c | 443.55$297 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.59 | 18 | 77.8%14 W · 4 L | +2.8wins | +0.15per pick | 62cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd24b…ef76backed Yes | 34c | 442.87$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.57 | 43 | 48.8%21 W · 22 L | +3.5wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9163…82aebacked Yes | 40c | 354.96$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.78 | 227 | 25.1%57 W · 170 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde39…f9abbacked Yes | 10c | 323.04$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.98 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98d0…f14abacked No | 37c | 301.81$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.53 | 149 | 47.7%71 W · 78 L | +6.9wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6dd5…dd4bbacked No | 63c | 300$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.27 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed No | 45c | 291.62$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.7 | 482 | 24.7%119 W · 363 L | -7.6wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x20f7…5527backed Yes | 37c | 280.04$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.91 | 21 | 9.5%2 W · 19 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 16cpaid | -77%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7aa4…22babacked Yes | 22c | 229.17$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.30per pick | 47cpaid | -76.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2b9d…adc0backed No | 38c | 222.33$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.84 | 134 | 44.8%60 W · 74 L | +17.1wins | +0.13per pick | 32cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x7f96…a226backed Yes | 46c | 218.97$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.02 | 80 | 51.3%41 W · 39 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed No | 77c | 214.27$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.47 | 98 | 22.4%22 W · 76 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf769…0114backed Yes | 64c | 204.99$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.19 | 53 | 30.2%16 W · 37 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e1e…c5e3backed No | 60c | 165.57$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.57 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.7wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe70f…02eebacked Yes | 64c | 162.3$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.74 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e71…39cebacked Yes | 66c | 151.66$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 30 | 20%6 W · 24 L | -4.4wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2b62…438cbacked No | 44c | 145.77$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.69 | 125 | 56.8%71 W · 54 L | +12.5wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x23d8…0288backed No | 34c | 142.11$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.79 | 41 | 61%25 W · 16 L | +8.3wins | +0.20per pick | 41cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x1ed5…703ebacked Yes | 24c | 103.04$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 57c | 103$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.73 | 1,318 | 43.9%579 W · 739 L | -26.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9660…8bb6backed No | 50c | 100.1$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.55 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +2.1wins | +0.15per pick | 42cpaid | +57.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 56c | 100$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 193 | 15.5%30 W · 163 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 42c | 95.96$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.3 | 463 | 30.2%140 W · 323 L | -20.4wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -19%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x993b…dedabacked No | 76c | 90$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.3 | 37 | 56.8%21 W · 16 L | +3.6wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +188.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x51f2…38efbacked No | 50c | 77.73$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.06 | 59 | 40.7%24 W · 35 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c15…9667backed No | 79c | 73$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.14 | 43 | 34.9%15 W · 28 L | -3.8wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5ecf…af11backed Yes | 39c | 65.57$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.57 | 33 | 24.2%8 W · 25 L | -4.6wins | -0.14per pick | 38cpaid | -57.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd12f…e85abacked Yes | 29c | 60$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x40cf…d21dbacked Yes | 21c | 59.02$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.39 | 159 | 32.7%52 W · 107 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +102.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x629b…995abacked No | 68c | 57.7$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.54 | 432 | 43.1%186 W · 246 L | +29.2wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 45c | 53.17$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.08 | 990 | 17.2%170 W · 820 L | -148.8wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 34-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xe8d0…6d36backed Yes | 38c | 52.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4eb5…7588backed No | 66c | 52.5$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.06 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.29per pick | 46cpaid | +247.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee16…16a2backed Yes | 60c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa7e…f37ebacked Yes | 62c | 50$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbde…3dc9backed Yes | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 45 | 26.7%12 W · 33 L | -5.7wins | -0.13per pick | 39cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6b44…be1ebacked Yes | 40c | 42.24$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.9 | 46 | 50%23 W · 23 L | +3.9wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +18%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd54b…b008backed Yes | 56c | 40$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f4a…cf21backed Yes | 37c | 39.66$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ae…9095backed Yes | 46c | 31.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.51 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.24per pick | 49cpaid | -60.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x65cc…c949backed No | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52bb…a759backed Yes | 47c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9ac…5a4cbacked No | 49c | 29.25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.84 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 44cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33ca…f810backed Yes | 38c | 28.95$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc104…cdc6backed Yes | 64c | 25.77$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.6 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 58cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x857c…d97ebacked No | 53c | 24.6$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.67 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +119.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x57a5…5097backed No | 49c | 24.55$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.52 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8031…c84cbacked No | 72c | 23.18$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.49 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b43…33cebacked No | 57c | 21.25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.14 | 55 | 63.6%35 W · 20 L | -3.3wins | -0.06per pick | 70cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 274 | 38.3%105 W · 169 L | -32.3wins | -0.12per pick | 50cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6236…6881backed Yes | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 91 | 52.7%48 W · 43 L | -6.8wins | -0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd7e0…c1bbbacked Yes | 63c | 15.94$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Reform UK win at least 1800 council seat elections in the 2026 United Kingdom local elections?this page
- Will Reform UK win at least 1600 council seat elections in the 2026 United Kingdom local elections?No won
- Will Reform UK win at least 2000 council seat elections in the 2026 United Kingdom local elections?No won
- Will Reform UK win at least 2200 council seat elections in the 2026 United Kingdom local elections?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.