Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 38°C or higher on July 14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x07bcf1d98b8d83fa20ff99b1981999d28ace672c5e7ea7527268128a02984dcf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,729
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,963
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,729 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 51c | 594.24$306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$305.85 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52dc…33c9backed No | 34c | 583.27$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$383.27 | 769 | 36.3%279 W · 490 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed Yes | 52c | 548.29$284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$283.73 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed Yes | 55c | 428.71$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.21 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09b4…e56dbacked No | 54c | 406.56$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.44 | 720 | 42.2%304 W · 416 L | +26.5wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 48c | 403.25$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.23 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 62c | 351.76$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.46 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked Yes | 45c | 319.76$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.86 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 47c | 319.56$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.8 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4079…7126backed No | 50c | 259.96$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.58 | 140 | 54.3%76 W · 64 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a67…5d96backed Yes | 44c | 229.18$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 158 | 41.8%66 W · 92 L | -8.8wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3175…9bb2backed No | 58c | 210.43$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.51 | 166 | 42.8%71 W · 95 L | +7.0wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 18c | 163.35$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.75 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 55c | 150.9$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.32 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 47c | 141.18$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.46 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3a…3df7backed Yes | 48c | 138.64$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.09 | 452 | 53.3%241 W · 211 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 50c | 115.79$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.51 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 64c | 106.45$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.82 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf370…4f88backed No | 60c | 98.14$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.31 | 388 | 60.1%233 W · 155 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 53c | 92.98$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.28 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 64c | 92.28$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.06 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked No | 53c | 91$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.12 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b35…bb20backed Yes | 51c | 84.31$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 82 | 63.4%52 W · 30 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 51c | 80.09$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.72 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed No | 54c | 77.78$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.78 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 63c | 69.62$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.64 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfba1…2769backed Yes | 43c | 69.16$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 106 | 40.6%43 W · 63 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 47c | 65.17$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.95 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 55c | 65$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.04 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f76…bcccbacked Yes | 48c | 62.9$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 147 | 25.2%37 W · 110 L | -8.3wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked Yes | 50c | 58.68$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.55 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3959…c30abacked No | 74c | 56.37$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.55 | 27 | 74.1%20 W · 7 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 68cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed Yes | 41c | 55$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.63 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 43c | 52$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.14 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 59c | 51$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.84 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc70…18adbacked Yes | 64c | 50.22$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8383…ba62backed Yes | 32c | 46.88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.17per pick | 60cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 45c | 42.05$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.13 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked Yes | 66c | 40.19$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.53 | 927 | 61.7%572 W · 355 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf23…3f54backed Yes | 45c | 39.86$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.98 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | -2.9wins | -0.11per pick | 34cpaid | -4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 54c | 38.26$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.41 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5de8…3eddbacked Yes | 57c | 35$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.95 | 461 | 48.8%225 W · 236 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2706…c6bebacked Yes | 37c | 33.08$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.33 | 318 | 66%210 W · 108 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 47c | 31.7$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd654…2efebacked No | 61c | 31.13$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.14 | 404 | 61.4%248 W · 156 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4eab…2caabacked Yes | 47c | 29.72$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.97 | 445 | 67%298 W · 147 L | +17.6wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x194b…2a11backed Yes | 47c | 29.72$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.97 | 288 | 66.3%191 W · 97 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc799…3bddbacked Yes | 46c | 29.45$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.55 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd39…5f76backed No | 54c | 29.45$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.55 | 95 | 69.5%66 W · 29 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 47c | 28.75$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.41 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xd212…5182backed Yes | 55c | 27.95$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.37 | 135 | 51.1%69 W · 66 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7bbd…65a3backed Yes | 50c | 27.91$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f5…5d9bbacked Yes | 50c | 27.86$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -1.8wins | -0.08per pick | 24cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1894…a936backed Yes | 41c | 27$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.16 | 667 | 58%387 W · 280 L | +48.0wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb423…c178backed No | 56c | 26.78$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.78 | 268 | 61.6%165 W · 103 L | -6.4wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 53c | 25.87$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.16 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d58…8a92backed Yes | 47c | 25.85$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.06 | 23 | 13%3 W · 20 L | -4.4wins | -0.19per pick | 32cpaid | -72.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 41c | 25.49$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.07 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed Yes | 43c | 25.33$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.9 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked No | 51c | 22.3$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.85 | 1,115 | 63.4%707 W · 408 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb437…90f0backed No | 50c | 20.15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.15 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x414c…e621backed No | 57c | 19.41$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.25 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9b62…042fbacked No | 69c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.65 | 118 | 59.3%70 W · 48 L | -5.7wins | -0.05per pick | 64cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad1…e9acbacked No | 72c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 39 | 59%23 W · 16 L | -3.9wins | -0.10per pick | 69cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 38°C or higher on July 14?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 35°C on July 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on July 14?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C on July 14?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.