MLB · resolved market
Spread: Kansas City Royals (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x07c21b5993727f1c5739b0dbbd774582739264338b6407279055dcfa5f977b28
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Kansas City Royalsof Kansas City Royals, Cleveland Guardians
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,194
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,767
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,194 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Cleveland Guardians | 65c | 1,651$1,071 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,070.89 | 2,369 | 47.4%1,122 W · 1,247 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Kansas City Royals | 34c | 1,449$497 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$952.01 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Kansas City Royals | 35c | 1,395$488 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$906.6 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Cleveland Guardians | 77c | 186.95$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.42 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Cleveland Guardians | 38c | 128.79$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.19 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d00…7507backed Kansas City Royals | 36c | 120.5$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.12 | 96 | 42.7%41 W · 55 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb0b…62cdbacked Kansas City Royals | 36c | 111.11$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.11 | 795 | 43%342 W · 453 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0905…e5c0backed Kansas City Royals | 35c | 90$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.17 | 1,661 | 43.5%722 W · 939 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Cleveland Guardians | 73c | 69.56$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.94 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7baa…03b7backed Cleveland Guardians | 31c | 68.84$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.28 | 198 | 55.1%109 W · 89 L | +6.0wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Kansas City Royals | 60c | 66.33$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.72 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f7…b944backed Kansas City Royals | 29c | 60.81$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.96 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7307…b257backed Kansas City Royals | 36c | 55.56$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.56 | 81 | 58%47 W · 34 L | +6.4wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Kansas City Royals | 53c | 55$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.85 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Cleveland Guardians | 64c | 50$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96c1…2c59backed Kansas City Royals | 34c | 50$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 1,498 | 45.3%678 W · 820 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84bb…25d3backed Kansas City Royals | 70c | 37.36$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.21 | 128 | 46.1%59 W · 69 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1df6…cba0backed Kansas City Royals | 64c | 37$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 1,445 | 50.3%727 W · 718 L | -27.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked Kansas City Royals | 58c | 34.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 825 | 51.6%426 W · 399 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1719…ec68backed Kansas City Royals | 36c | 34$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.76 | 721 | 54.2%391 W · 330 L | +20.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +144.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56ac…d77ebacked Kansas City Royals | 36c | 31.15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.09 | 716 | 50.7%363 W · 353 L | +9.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb684…343cbacked Cleveland Guardians | 65c | 31$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.15 | 143 | 53.1%76 W · 67 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Kansas City Royals | 70c | 30.27$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.14 | 1,843 | 43.6%804 W · 1,039 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Cleveland Guardians | 77c | 22.18$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.08 | 753 | 44.1%332 W · 421 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Cleveland Guardians | 52c | 20.53$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.67 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9ea…b781backed Cleveland Guardians | 63c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 568 | 51.4%292 W · 276 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Kansas City Royals (-1.5)this page
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Kansas City RoyalsKansas City Royals won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 8.5Under won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5)Kansas City Royals won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Cleveland Guardians vs. Kansas City RoyalsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.