MLB · resolved market
Cleveland Guardians vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5ea1091f8a262193f0612d437c51c95b51bd9670d46c939244045e2ac3b5b9f8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $34,743
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $34,700
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,743 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 81 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6498…8910backed Over | 54c | 12,767$6,881 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,881.06 | 517 | 56.5%292 W · 225 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe3aa…4830backed Under | 44c | 6,092$2,681 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,411.76 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 48c | 5,523$2,650 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,872.56 | 11,519 | 52.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L | +213.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58b9…ee8bbacked Under | 43c | 3,010$1,294 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,715.72 | 752 | 48.8%367 W · 385 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 46c | 2,570$1,170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,399.98 | 8,192 | 46.2%3,787 W · 4,405 L | +38.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Over | 57c | 1,860$1,060 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,060.19 | 1,922 | 53.4%1,027 W · 895 L | +28.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…1d79backed Over | 57c | 1,753$999 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$999 | 262 | 45.8%120 W · 142 L | -17.7wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 43c | 1,693$728 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$964.8 | 5,471 | 50.5%2,763 W · 2,708 L | +21.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Over | 55c | 1,573$866 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$866.47 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 56c | 1,400$784 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$783.99 | 6,999 | 50.6%3,538 W · 3,461 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5966…af5dbacked Under | 44c | 800$352 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$448 | 274 | 49.3%135 W · 139 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Over | 56c | 680$381 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$380.8 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55d8…b384backed Under | 44c | 619.07$272 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$347.4 | 577 | 44.7%258 W · 319 L | -6.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3982…2befbacked Under | 47c | 425.51$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.52 | 418 | 47.6%199 W · 219 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Under | 28c | 423.2$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$304.57 | 8,594 | 52.6%4,521 W · 4,073 L | +508.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Over | 51c | 406$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.65 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Under | 44c | 391.02$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.97 | 1,586 | 48.5%770 W · 816 L | -2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba67…4727backed Over | 56c | 379$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.24 | 750 | 49.7%373 W · 377 L | +7.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7479…e171backed Under | 44c | 377.48$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.53 | 169 | 47.3%80 W · 89 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e5…2d3abacked Over | 57c | 350.88$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 947 | 34.4%326 W · 621 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 52c | 285.26$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.3 | 10,979 | 51.6%5,660 W · 5,319 L | +139.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe624…2928backed Under | 44c | 272.73$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.73 | 496 | 49.8%247 W · 249 L | +11.5wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed Under | 46c | 255.52$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.42 | 1,212 | 50%606 W · 606 L | +5.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e4a…eee7backed Under | 43c | 232.55$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.55 | 308 | 44.2%136 W · 172 L | -10.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc278…a116backed Under | 44c | 232.25$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.06 | 848 | 40.2%341 W · 507 L | -3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Over | 57c | 219.5$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.04 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd696…8a49backed Over | 52c | 218.76$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.76 | 324 | 51.9%168 W · 156 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Under | 45c | 205$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.96 | 1,728 | 50.4%871 W · 857 L | +57.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b97…6084backed Under | 44c | 200$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112 | 591 | 50.3%297 W · 294 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8508…c22fbacked Over | 57c | 192.98$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 1,000 | 52.4%524 W · 476 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Over | 56c | 180$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.8 | 1,445 | 50%723 W · 722 L | +26.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Under | 51c | 177.35$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.67 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 55c | 167.16$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.56 | 5,149 | 54.7%2,815 W · 2,334 L | +231.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Over | 61c | 163.92$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.99 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Over | 51c | 151.41$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.6 | 6,305 | 48.2%3,042 W · 3,263 L | +181.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Under | 51c | 121$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.66 | 781 | 46.4%362 W · 419 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf46b…c51dbacked Over | 50c | 100.6$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 524 | 49%257 W · 267 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 58c | 96.11$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.06 | 6,123 | 55.4%3,390 W · 2,733 L | +346.0wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2a34…56cfbacked Under | 44c | 88.64$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.64 | 280 | 53.9%151 W · 129 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Over | 62c | 85.71$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.14 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Under | 52c | 85.02$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.08 | 3,219 | 51.2%1,649 W · 1,570 L | +148.2wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked Over | 52c | 75.41$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.33 | 825 | 51.6%426 W · 399 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Under | 38c | 73$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.26 | 755 | 44.2%334 W · 421 L | -9.0wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Under | 44c | 72.28$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.83 | 1,269 | 47.4%602 W · 667 L | -31.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d87…4e0dbacked Under | 56c | 70$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.79 | 283 | 50.2%142 W · 141 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca2d…39edbacked Under | 44c | 66.99$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.51 | 232 | 48.7%113 W · 119 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 71c | 60.06$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.35 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 68c | 57.18$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.3 | 4,087 | 57.6%2,354 W · 1,733 L | +66.3wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15db…1da8backed Over | 55c | 54.55$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 71 | 52.1%37 W · 34 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec3e…11c0backed Under | 47c | 53$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.09 | 96 | 41.7%40 W · 56 L | -8.0wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x84bb…25d3backed Under | 39c | 52.87$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.25 | 128 | 46.1%59 W · 69 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0954…012abacked Over | 57c | 52.63$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1,197 | 53.9%645 W · 552 L | +42.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c76…2632backed Under | 48c | 51.4$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.8 | 245 | 54.7%134 W · 111 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Under | 43c | 50.83$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.82 | 1,928 | 17.2%331 W · 1,597 L | -320.9wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xd5f5…bb11backed Under | 45c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.5 | 559 | 53.1%297 W · 262 L | +10.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Under | 48c | 49.92$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.2 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x255a…3435backed Under | 37c | 47.86$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.1 | 1,522 | 34.7%528 W · 994 L | +27.1wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35d1…1f70backed Under | 43c | 46.18$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.52 | 225 | 54.7%123 W · 102 L | +6.8wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x15ee…512dbacked Under | 44c | 45$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.2 | 213 | 53.5%114 W · 99 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Over | 53c | 44$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.32 | 1,053 | 47.3%498 W · 555 L | -14.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed Under | 40c | 42.75$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.65 | 946 | 48.9%463 W · 483 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa877…2e20backed Over | 57c | 41$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.37 | 726 | 48.1%349 W · 377 L | -17.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0afb…9a96backed Over | 46c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 52 | 51.9%27 W · 25 L | +5.2wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 40c | 39.97$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.14 | 2,546 | 45.9%1,168 W · 1,378 L | -74.1wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -15%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 39c | 33.5$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.3 | 5,812 | 43.7%2,541 W · 3,271 L | -188.1wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d49…e00abacked Under | 45c | 33.18$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.19 | 667 | 49.3%329 W · 338 L | -22.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x976a…e8ecbacked Under | 39c | 31.79$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.39 | 1,022 | 50.6%517 W · 505 L | +54.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa6d7…d801backed Over | 48c | 31.22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 97 | 49.5%48 W · 49 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | 0%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Over | 45c | 31$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.95 | 4,405 | 44.9%1,978 W · 2,427 L | +80.0wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8858…ed3ebacked Over | 49c | 30.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 136 | 41.9%57 W · 79 L | -8.7wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2bcf…c678backed Over | 62c | 29.71$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.27 | 246 | 54.9%135 W · 111 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…8de1backed Under | 51c | 29.5$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 639 | 43.3%277 W · 362 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35e7…8331backed Over | 56c | 27.73$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.53 | 1,001 | 48.3%483 W · 518 L | -15.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Over | 61c | 27.57$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.82 | 2,588 | 61.5%1,591 W · 997 L | +72.3wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0bbd…98f2backed Under | 47c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.25 | 187 | 51.3%96 W · 91 L | +9.9wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d50…d283backed Under | 50c | 24.18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.11 | 178 | 42.7%76 W · 102 L | -8.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xabf5…cfebbacked Over | 52c | 24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.48 | 454 | 51.3%233 W · 221 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdca9…0898backed Under | 49c | 21.98$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.21 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | -2.4wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9ddc…e874backed Under | 46c | 21.94$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.82 | 194 | 42.3%82 W · 112 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c0b…eb5cbacked Under | 70c | 21.43$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.43 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +110.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28a3…8620backed Over | 57c | 21.05$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 321 | 53.9%173 W · 148 L | -10.6wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 8.5this page
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Kansas City RoyalsKansas City Royals won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5)Kansas City Royals won
- Spread: Kansas City Royals (-1.5)Kansas City Royals won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Cleveland Guardians vs. Kansas City RoyalsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.