TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tennis · resolved market

Heilbronn: Henri Squire vs Emilio Nava

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Emilio Navaof Henri Squire, Emilio Nava
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$94,667
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$110,682

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $94,667 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 105 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tennis
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xfe78…0319backed Henri Squire5c7,224$370 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$369.998,82836.1%3,190 W · 5,638 L-193.3wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-27.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4698…d7a5backed Emilio Nava72c3,873$2,799 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,073.4453655.4%297 W · 239 L-28.6wins-0.05per pick61cpaid-12.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xde9f…d43cbacked Henri Squire12c3,663$440 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$439.526,59950.7%3,343 W · 3,256 L+259.7wins+0.04per pick47cpaid-4.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xccd8…f4debacked Henri Squire34c3,562$1,194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,193.981,47535.2%519 W · 956 L-14.1wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-4.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Henri Squire18c3,051$556 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$556.354,18544.7%1,871 W · 2,314 L+14.9wins0.00per pick44cpaid-17.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf93d…fc9bbacked Emilio Nava70c2,857$1,998 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$858.7422352%116 W · 107 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick53cpaid+2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x775d…6bebbacked Emilio Nava69c2,000$1,380 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$619.991,76752.1%920 W · 847 L-2.2wins0.00per pick52cpaid-6.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed Henri Squire31c1,875$581 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$580.974,53367.7%3,071 W · 1,462 L+306.6wins+0.07per pick61cpaid+5.2%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x0094…eea5backed Henri Squire4c1,863$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80329.4%3 W · 29 L+1.2wins+0.04per pick5cpaid+92.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x32b4…8b21backed Henri Squire21c1,818$374 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$373.73,60542.4%1,530 W · 2,075 L-43.2wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-16.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5210…ba8bbacked Emilio Nava68c1,601$1,097 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$504.52665.4%17 W · 9 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick64cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcec1…9c0cbacked Henri Squire32c1,394$446 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$446.0229952.2%156 W · 143 L+3.3wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc470…c792backed Henri Squire21c1,342$287 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2871,50435.1%528 W · 976 L+12.5wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeea3…a6a2backed Henri Squire9c1,199$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.193,06857.3%1,757 W · 1,311 L+173.3wins+0.06per pick52cpaid-3.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x9dfe…a5d6backed Emilio Nava69c1,159$800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$359.4250458.9%297 W · 207 L+9.6wins+0.02per pick57cpaid+7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa664…f849backed Henri Squire30c999.96$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$299.9985634.2%293 W · 563 L+16.9wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+8.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf970…f7f6backed Henri Squire7c874.66$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.462,48535.9%893 W · 1,592 L-28.5wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-5.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaa3c…5607backed Henri Squire31c690.41$214 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$214.033647.2%17 W · 19 L-2.1wins-0.06per pick53cpaid-12%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc242…5cf5backed Emilio Nava80c635.83$509 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$127.17633.3%2 W · 4 L-2.1wins-0.35per pick68cpaid-55.5%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x7547…d158backed Henri Squire31c635.46$197 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$197.257,04939.7%2,795 W · 4,254 L-20.5wins0.00per pick40cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb5e7…3c1abacked Emilio Nava69c618.76$427 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$191.8187251.1%446 W · 426 L+8.3wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4247…91c4backed Emilio Nava63c604.75$381 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$223.7614849.3%73 W · 75 L-6.1wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-11.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7932…5b38backed Emilio Nava67c597.01$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$197.0136157.1%206 W · 155 L-6.5wins-0.02per pick59cpaid-2.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6553…7a71backed Henri Squire32c536.75$172 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$171.761,12551.1%575 W · 550 L-11.2wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-0.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x74bd…d371backed Henri Squire14c505.12$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.7242125.7%108 W · 313 L-0.4wins0.00per pick26cpaid+9.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1e72…d0b9backed Henri Squire20c469.99$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.670729.1%206 W · 501 L+0.8wins0.00per pick29cpaid-6.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9266…8f3cbacked Emilio Nava67c445.34$297 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$148.3425556.1%143 W · 112 L-9.1wins-0.04per pick60cpaid-7.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7cb6…96d1backed Emilio Nava68c441.18$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$141.1846565.6%305 W · 160 L+8.0wins+0.02per pick64cpaid+2.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1e3b…e232backed Henri Squire32c437.18$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140.23,90150.1%1,953 W · 1,948 L-13.2wins0.00per pick50cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0ade…ed94backed Emilio Nava68c434.79$296 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$139.131,45854%787 W · 671 L-33.0wins-0.02per pick56cpaid+64.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc217…8701backed Emilio Nava67c432.84$290 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$142.843060%18 W · 12 L+1.4wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+13.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5572…f01ebacked Emilio Nava68c400$273 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$127.557953.7%311 W · 268 L+19.4wins+0.03per pick50cpaid-11%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf84b…6455backed Henri Squire4c375$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151217.4%9 W · 112 L-7.9wins-0.07per pick14cpaid-48.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9d3e…986cbacked Henri Squire32c309.99$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.263648%305 W · 331 L-10.3wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-3.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1f64…3633backed Henri Squire31c291.71$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.3799249.4%490 W · 502 L-9.5wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd4bc…b19dbacked Emilio Nava71c289.59$205 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.598543.5%37 W · 48 L-4.0wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-12.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4093…5749backed Henri Squire14c253.21$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.42,85549.4%1,410 W · 1,445 L+21.3wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-5.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8ee9…1362backed Henri Squire32c240.63$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7772542.6%309 W · 416 L-20.9wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-11.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd457…5da7backed Henri Squire14c228.57$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3250%0 W · 5 L-1.2wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf7f0…912cbacked Emilio Nava67c198.43$133 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.3847854.8%262 W · 216 L+25.6wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+23.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x012d…9db6backed Emilio Nava69c196.3$135 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.384968.4%581 W · 268 L+25.9wins+0.03per pick65cpaid+1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xedf7…4003backed Henri Squire25c194.77$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.192138.4%354 W · 567 L+11.2wins+0.01per pick37cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd034…eecebacked Henri Squire30c178.12$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.942,73534%931 W · 1,804 L-13.2wins0.00per pick35cpaid-2.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x6d44…04efbacked Henri Squire17c171.45$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.88742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick37cpaid+25.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6318…46b1backed Henri Squire30c166.67$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$505,26128.8%1,514 W · 3,747 L-19.4wins0.00per pick29cpaid-1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x52a0…ec9dbacked Henri Squire32c156.25$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5058045.9%266 W · 314 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-1.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x36b3…e421backed Henri Squire31c151.45$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.9585250%426 W · 426 L+22.4wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+5.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x400d…e759backed Henri Squire31c151.12$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.8560856.6%344 W · 264 L+4.8wins+0.01per pick56cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3e43…f873backed Emilio Nava67c149.25$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.25683.3%5 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.11per pick72cpaid+13.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6a00…9158backed Henri Squire32c148.21$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.4378840.6%320 W · 468 L-7.7wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-8.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x22c7…d814backed Emilio Nava69c123.19$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.1940554.1%219 W · 186 L+9.3wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbb05…ad87backed Henri Squire33c123$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.5910%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x771c…e709backed Emilio Nava68c120$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.4366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.12per pick54cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4232…d505backed Henri Squire14c119.93$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.7937235.2%131 W · 241 L-12.8wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-9.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xfb77…1c78backed Henri Squire37c115.05$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$422,15137.3%802 W · 1,349 L-27.2wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0378…030bbacked Emilio Nava70c113.99$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.5910764.5%69 W · 38 L-1.9wins-0.02per pick66cpaid-3.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x64e8…7819backed Henri Squire31c100$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$311,88235.5%669 W · 1,213 L+26.8wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+4.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0482…f72abacked Henri Squire20c100$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20147.1%1 W · 13 L-2.6wins-0.19per pick26cpaid-85.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xd12f…e80dbacked Henri Squire33c100$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$336953.6%37 W · 32 L+0.2wins0.00per pick53cpaid+4.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3cad…92f0backed Henri Squire36c97.22$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$353,22040.5%1,305 W · 1,915 L+28.3wins+0.01per pick40cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0df7…1ec1backed Henri Squire36c97$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.921,85357.7%1,069 W · 784 L+106.8wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+3.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x908a…ad16backed Emilio Nava76c95$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.211,65550.1%829 W · 826 L+30.2wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-7.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1dd2…9e07backed Emilio Nava70c92.91$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.662,41851.7%1,249 W · 1,169 L+10.3wins0.00per pick51cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2077…8161backed Emilio Nava68c92.02$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.451,02157.8%590 W · 431 L-13.2wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x133a…504abacked Henri Squire36c77.78$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$283,42439.1%1,338 W · 2,086 L-12.3wins0.00per pick39cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4c11…939abacked Emilio Nava68c75$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$241100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+47.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x25bf…7a56backed Emilio Nava68c73.53$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.532,33546.6%1,088 W · 1,247 L+55.3wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-1.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xadfb…c2efbacked Henri Squire31c73.3$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.383,25648.2%1,570 W · 1,686 L-53.4wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-4.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa509…ae46backed Emilio Nava79c73.22$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.446,78648.8%3,310 W · 3,476 L+56.2wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-15.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc7c7…3b08backed Emilio Nava69c72.46$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.4650958%295 W · 214 L-26.5wins-0.05per pick63cpaid-7.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xdfcd…4730backed Henri Squire33c71.43$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.57333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.20per pick54cpaid-50.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcf08…12a3backed Henri Squire36c66.67$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2423551.9%122 W · 113 L-3.9wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-2.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5569…c927backed Emilio Nava67c65.15$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.633857.9%22 W · 16 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick55cpaid+33.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0b2a…0a73backed Henri Squire32c62.5$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2094058.4%549 W · 391 L+21.5wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x18c6…8e8fbacked Henri Squire36c61.11$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2210755.1%59 W · 48 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+5.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x12d1…cac5backed Emilio Nava68c58.82$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.8211653.4%62 W · 54 L-6.1wins-0.05per pick59cpaid-11.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf0b3…ba3bbacked Emilio Nava79c56.98$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.974658.7%27 W · 19 L+3.4wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+6.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc923…39c8backed Henri Squire33c53$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.49450%2 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-29.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Henri Squire32c49.51$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.847,81650.6%3,958 W · 3,858 L+95.4wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb649…e8b2backed Henri Squire21c46.98$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.041070%7 W · 3 L+3.1wins+0.31per pick39cpaid+65.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xc3a2…8ff7backed Henri Squire31c45.42$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.0839443.9%173 W · 221 L+19.6wins+0.05per pick39cpaid+19.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x489d…f6e3backed Emilio Nava75c45.01$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.281,83153%971 W · 860 L-45.3wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-7.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Henri Squire35c45$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.881,87016%299 W · 1,571 L-314.3wins-0.17per pick33cpaid-65.6%equal weight32-0.17 edge/pick
0x3ced…1042backed Emilio Nava68c45$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.43100%3 W · 0 L+1.3wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+94%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x17f7…a181backed Henri Squire32c43.75$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1451347%241 W · 272 L+11.3wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x610b…36a3backed Henri Squire25c40$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1054744.4%243 W · 304 L-5.6wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-4.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc1b5…c8f8backed Henri Squire31c39$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.221,06242%446 W · 616 L-5.5wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-1.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc98b…c6f3backed Emilio Nava67c38.64$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.7511155%61 W · 50 L+0.2wins0.00per pick55cpaid+3.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2c7d…b743backed Emilio Nava70c38.57$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.574852.1%25 W · 23 L-3.4wins-0.07per pick59cpaid-15.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5929…4684backed Emilio Nava78c36.77$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.093,67754.8%2,015 W · 1,662 L+107.4wins+0.03per pick52cpaid-1.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf2d5…53d0backed Emilio Nava68c33.89$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.8417656.3%99 W · 77 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-0.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x782d…8211backed Emilio Nava68c33.66$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.7770456.8%400 W · 304 L-20.1wins-0.03per pick60cpaid-5.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc1a1…689cbacked Henri Squire32c31.25$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103056.7%17 W · 13 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick59cpaid-8.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xfe37…911dbacked Emilio Nava77c30$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.932675.2%245 W · 81 L+20.4wins+0.06per pick69cpaid+9.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xa1d7…a311backed Henri Squire39c29.99$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.7511735.9%42 W · 75 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4567…0fd6backed Emilio Nava68c29.41$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.412653.8%14 W · 12 L-2.5wins-0.10per pick63cpaid-16.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Emilio Nava78c29.33$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.372,85439.5%1,126 W · 1,728 L-83.5wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-22.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe635…b1a2backed Emilio Nava69c28.99$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.9913240.9%54 W · 78 L+3.1wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+4.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbebf…9baebacked Emilio Nava70c21.43$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.4390854.5%495 W · 413 L+21.5wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+0.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x13ff…2506backed Emilio Nava70c20$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$621759.4%129 W · 88 L-9.8wins-0.05per pick64cpaid-7.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.