Weather · resolved market
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 25°C on August 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x07f908d7e9f13e2155df112e0175d5312c5dd015d977644d8928620cc3a18cba
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,862
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,174
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,862 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x97ab…a19fbacked No | 73c | 909.98$661 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$661.09 | 299 | 53.8%161 W · 138 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7439…b8efbacked Yes | 38c | 523.99$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$326.78 | 132 | 38.6%51 W · 81 L | -6.5wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 52c | 399.62$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.91 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a89…de7dbacked Yes | 16c | 350$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$294.5 | 83 | 56.6%47 W · 36 L | +3.9wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe8f2…96d7backed Yes | 58c | 324.23$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.9 | 244 | 66.8%163 W · 81 L | +20.2wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf56c…ad84backed Yes | 4c | 319.98$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$305.78 | 507 | 3.4%17 W · 490 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e5c…d892backed Yes | 14c | 221.77$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.78 | 570 | 44.9%256 W · 314 L | +36.5wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +13%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x91f8…d951backed No | 68c | 159.5$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.77 | 57 | 52.6%30 W · 27 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 68c | 143.99$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.91 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 37c | 140$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.8 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked No | 36c | 125.69$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.66 | 749 | 26.7%200 W · 549 L | -20.6wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30d8…29ecbacked Yes | 17c | 122$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.26 | 86 | 36%31 W · 55 L | +10.3wins | +0.12per pick | 24cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9be9…7017backed Yes | 25c | 114$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.72 | 656 | 27.4%180 W · 476 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7e9…fb3cbacked Yes | 59c | 108.87$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.24 | 190 | 60.5%115 W · 75 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd661…2750backed Yes | 44c | 100$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.58 | 880 | 28.9%254 W · 626 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 57c | 92.83$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.02 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 30c | 92.58$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.97 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1104…1f70backed Yes | 33c | 85.34$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.18 | 141 | 51.8%73 W · 68 L | +6.9wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea21…f753backed Yes | 48c | 83$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.8 | 236 | 68.2%161 W · 75 L | +18.8wins | +0.08per pick | 60cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 59c | 80$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.1 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed No | 51c | 80$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 401 | 62.6%251 W · 150 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12f5…5ac4backed No | 69c | 80$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.2 | 112 | 40.2%45 W · 67 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 58c | 68.7$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.71 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb407…6eb1backed Yes | 40c | 66.26$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.69 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | +2.7wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 58c | 55$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.68 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 40c | 54.66$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.99 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 71c | 49.46$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.19 | 1,088 | 55.5%604 W · 484 L | -27.6wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 37c | 44.07$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.76 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9006…9fb8backed Yes | 60c | 41.02$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.41 | 270 | 37.4%101 W · 169 L | +12.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc9d8…cea4backed Yes | 47c | 40$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.1 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 69c | 40$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.6 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 48c | 37.15$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.15 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa23b…b787backed Yes | 60c | 25.52$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.21 | 73 | 50.7%37 W · 36 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 53c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.28 | 710 | 57.9%411 W · 299 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe0cd…d931backed No | 71c | 23.7$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.9 | 199 | 56.3%112 W · 87 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x864f…3ae7backed Yes | 60c | 23.33$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.33 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c64…dc5ebacked Yes | 46c | 23.32$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.65 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +78.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed Yes | 54c | 23.19$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.69 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked No | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 1,115 | 63.4%707 W · 408 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05f7…22bcbacked No | 70c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 131 | 67.2%88 W · 43 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c90…17efbacked No | 73c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 288 | 47.2%136 W · 152 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb84c…e169backed No | 68c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 417 | 52%217 W · 200 L | -11.4wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 59c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked No | 69c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 809 | 62.1%502 W · 307 L | -22.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba6d…9128backed No | 71c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 82 | 51.2%42 W · 40 L | -6.4wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfbaa…0ad7backed No | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a1…13d6backed Yes | 68c | 19.71$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.31 | 69 | 49.3%34 W · 35 L | +3.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3f…fde2backed No | 59c | 17.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 50 | 54%27 W · 23 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the lowest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 25°C on August 15?this page
- Will the lowest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 23°C on August 15?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 24°C on August 15?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 26°C on August 15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.