Tennis · resolved market
Ilkley: Toby Samuel vs August Holmgren
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x07fe22d50f59c7b7c47392a120852900129b96a3018a9feee1b493f8dfade46a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Toby Samuelof Toby Samuel, August Holmgren
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,322
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,965
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,322 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Toby Samuel | 66c | 3,636$2,402 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,234 | 4,533 | 67.7%3,071 W · 1,462 L | +306.6wins | +0.07per pick | 61cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x20b4…bfa2backed August Holmgren | 45c | 1,185$533 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$533.17 | 335 | 40.9%137 W · 198 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9807…157bbacked August Holmgren | 40c | 1,000$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 334 | 38.6%129 W · 205 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed August Holmgren | 14c | 979.13$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.44 | 8,828 | 36.1%3,190 W · 5,638 L | -193.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc26a…b715backed August Holmgren | 20c | 950$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190 | 573 | 21.8%125 W · 448 L | -13.1wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked August Holmgren | 40c | 939.71$373 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$373.2 | 3,256 | 48.2%1,570 W · 1,686 L | -53.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Toby Samuel | 76c | 881.83$670 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211.43 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d9a…05e6backed August Holmgren | 11c | 486.91$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.38 | 2,085 | 44.5%928 W · 1,157 L | -51.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd034…eecebacked August Holmgren | 40c | 470.47$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.83 | 2,735 | 34%931 W · 1,804 L | -13.2wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked August Holmgren | 40c | 432.26$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.63 | 478 | 54.8%262 W · 216 L | +25.6wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc81…e889backed August Holmgren | 38c | 423.32$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.86 | 179 | 42.5%76 W · 103 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad5…62ffbacked August Holmgren | 43c | 396.49$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.79 | 1,228 | 23.1%284 W · 944 L | -164.0wins | -0.13per pick | 36cpaid | -47%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Toby Samuel | 60c | 341.42$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.57 | 3,901 | 50.1%1,953 W · 1,948 L | -13.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99f0…9495backed August Holmgren | 38c | 322.16$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.42 | 2,174 | 36.9%802 W · 1,372 L | +39.5wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f9e…a396backed August Holmgren | 40c | 320.18$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.07 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -2.5wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9694…b7adbacked August Holmgren | 41c | 292.72$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 2,058 | 59.5%1,225 W · 833 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed August Holmgren | 21c | 255.67$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.49 | 8,505 | 42.6%3,619 W · 4,886 L | -166.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xccd8…f4debacked Toby Samuel | 61c | 244.21$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.24 | 1,475 | 35.2%519 W · 956 L | -14.1wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42c9…9623backed Toby Samuel | 75c | 242.9$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.65 | 4,703 | 49.4%2,323 W · 2,380 L | +166.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb155…ca84backed Toby Samuel | 61c | 240$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.6 | 920 | 46.6%429 W · 491 L | -14.2wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked August Holmgren | 13c | 222.6$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.66 | 4,185 | 44.7%1,871 W · 2,314 L | +14.9wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0cf8…75e4backed August Holmgren | 40c | 175$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 193 | 43.5%84 W · 109 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed August Holmgren | 9c | 169.96$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.65 | 8,217 | 45.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L | +166.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bdd…8fd9backed Toby Samuel | 60c | 166.67$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.67 | 51 | 45.1%23 W · 28 L | -3.9wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5213…6a35backed Toby Samuel | 60c | 159.45$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.78 | 1,865 | 44.7%834 W · 1,031 L | +36.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde9f…d43cbacked Toby Samuel | 50c | 156$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78 | 6,599 | 50.7%3,343 W · 3,256 L | +259.7wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b5…1212backed August Holmgren | 25c | 142.44$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 302 | 26.8%81 W · 221 L | -6.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed August Holmgren | 15c | 134.54$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.18 | 1,379 | 16.4%226 W · 1,153 L | -108.5wins | -0.08per pick | 24cpaid | -49.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0ade…ed94backed August Holmgren | 40c | 121.95$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.78 | 1,458 | 54%787 W · 671 L | -33.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +64.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x629d…756cbacked Toby Samuel | 58c | 119$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.62 | 2,082 | 52.3%1,088 W · 994 L | +19.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x782d…8211backed August Holmgren | 52c | 114.24$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.4 | 704 | 56.8%400 W · 304 L | -20.1wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2077…8161backed Toby Samuel | 60c | 110.24$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.1 | 1,021 | 57.8%590 W · 431 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed Toby Samuel | 59c | 107.35$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.01 | 1,151 | 48.7%560 W · 591 L | +8.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c66…e371backed Toby Samuel | 60c | 101.7$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.68 | 305 | 54.4%166 W · 139 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9201…e578backed August Holmgren | 41c | 96.85$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.71 | 50 | 58%29 W · 21 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Toby Samuel | 76c | 95.21$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.85 | 4,765 | 47%2,238 W · 2,527 L | -82.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0a…ea32backed August Holmgren | 21c | 93.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 436 | 18.3%80 W · 356 L | -21.4wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd2…9e07backed Toby Samuel | 59c | 90$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.9 | 2,418 | 51.7%1,249 W · 1,169 L | +10.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed August Holmgren | 23c | 87.57$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.14 | 2,854 | 39.5%1,126 W · 1,728 L | -83.5wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x18bf…d351backed Toby Samuel | 60c | 82.5$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -3.4wins | -0.15per pick | 54cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x64e8…7819backed August Holmgren | 39c | 80$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.2 | 1,882 | 35.5%669 W · 1,213 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed August Holmgren | 16c | 80$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 1,655 | 50.1%829 W · 826 L | +30.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4c0…22ebbacked August Holmgren | 20c | 79.72$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.55 | 405 | 27.2%110 W · 295 L | -17.2wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd8…9a1cbacked Toby Samuel | 77c | 76.1$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.8 | 580 | 48.4%281 W · 299 L | +16.3wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Toby Samuel | 73c | 73.58$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.13 | 3,677 | 54.8%2,015 W · 1,662 L | +107.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32b4…8b21backed August Holmgren | 35c | 72.91$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.68 | 3,605 | 42.4%1,530 W · 2,075 L | -43.2wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82aa…fe2fbacked August Holmgren | 18c | 72$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.96 | 627 | 27.3%171 W · 456 L | -15.7wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5970…f6d8backed August Holmgren | 41c | 69$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89b9…118ebacked Toby Samuel | 62c | 60$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.8 | 749 | 55.1%413 W · 336 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x05d3…c06abacked August Holmgren | 42c | 53.51$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.3 | 1,639 | 55.1%903 W · 736 L | +10.8wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14e7…a32cbacked Toby Samuel | 62c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19 | 1,349 | 49.8%672 W · 677 L | -6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1351…178bbacked August Holmgren | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 167 | 46.7%78 W · 89 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2554…bb52backed Toby Samuel | 62c | 45.99$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.48 | 97 | 54.6%53 W · 44 L | -3.8wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb29…bee1backed Toby Samuel | 60c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed August Holmgren | 38c | 36.38$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.82 | 3,874 | 45.4%1,758 W · 2,116 L | -39.6wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f2e…7c7bbacked Toby Samuel | 62c | 33.72$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.81 | 1,065 | 57.4%611 W · 454 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06a9…1a49backed Toby Samuel | 61c | 32.79$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.79 | 718 | 57.7%414 W · 304 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e05…c111backed Toby Samuel | 60c | 32.75$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.1 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +2.1wins | +0.19per pick | 63cpaid | +29%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Toby Samuel | 57c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.9 | 830 | 47%390 W · 440 L | -16.0wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8abc…f29fbacked Toby Samuel | 60c | 29$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8179…5c4dbacked Toby Samuel | 60c | 23.1$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.24 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd93d…27a0backed Toby Samuel | 61c | 22.05$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 516 | 44.8%231 W · 285 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x00c5…b5e9backed Toby Samuel | 60c | 22.04$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.82 | 231 | 62.8%145 W · 86 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0df7…1ec1backed Toby Samuel | 60c | 18.35$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.29 | 1,853 | 57.7%1,069 W · 784 L | +106.8wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.