Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 90-91°F on July 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x083a56285f4fb3631364e12eff25a7a26a1477241a3858be184c6292483d2af6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,004
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,503
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,004 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 79 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5500…b4f6backed Yes | 28c | 1,306$362 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$361.59 | 175 | 36%63 W · 112 L | +9.2wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 71c | 474$338 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.65 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e9c…f3a8backed Yes | 29c | 351.62$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.63 | 602 | 36.5%220 W · 382 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 31c | 334.99$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.65 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 67c | 329.1$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.63 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 24c | 327.3$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.99 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90ae…2475backed Yes | 33c | 275$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.75 | 571 | 50.4%288 W · 283 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 69c | 242.87$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.17 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 72c | 236$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.08 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 30c | 223.99$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.78 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 36c | 170$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.65 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93f7…c133backed Yes | 32c | 149.67$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.7 | 185 | 55.7%103 W · 82 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf71a…fa40backed Yes | 35c | 149.22$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.56 | 190 | 42.6%81 W · 109 L | -11.9wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c6…2b25backed No | 78c | 129.02$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.02 | 329 | 58.7%193 W · 136 L | +17.9wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 31c | 116.07$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.65 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed Yes | 33c | 110.04$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf87c…cfcbbacked No | 76c | 100.98$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.25 | 55 | 67.3%37 W · 18 L | +3.6wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked No | 69c | 100.13$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.04 | 656 | 25.8%169 W · 487 L | -13.2wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 72c | 100$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf668…e47abacked No | 65c | 100$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 181 | 31.5%57 W · 124 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28c1…b087backed Yes | 32c | 100$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 162 | 20.4%33 W · 129 L | -6.4wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa0a6…0bb7backed Yes | 32c | 100$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 79 | 21.5%17 W · 62 L | -4.2wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x744f…caffbacked Yes | 32c | 100$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 80 | 23.8%19 W · 61 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc2cc…95bebacked Yes | 32c | 100$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 87 | 17.2%15 W · 72 L | -7.9wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaddf…b8febacked No | 70c | 82.94$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.88 | 286 | 66.8%191 W · 95 L | +9.1wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 33c | 82.26$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.43 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed Yes | 33c | 81.03$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.74 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe59d…b97bbacked Yes | 29c | 78.67$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.99 | 524 | 46.2%242 W · 282 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc50c…8d41backed No | 69c | 75$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.4 | 423 | 66.4%281 W · 142 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 65c | 73.41$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.58 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf18c…18c1backed No | 71c | 69.6$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.18 | 439 | 59.5%261 W · 178 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 68c | 68.71$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.89 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 71c | 60$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.3 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd73…3cc0backed No | 73c | 60$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.4 | 69 | 68.1%47 W · 22 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed Yes | 38c | 59.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.7 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae22…8794backed No | 72c | 55.62$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.7 | 462 | 32.9%152 W · 310 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36ff…f2a6backed Yes | 37c | 54.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 621 | 37.7%234 W · 387 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 70c | 51.95$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.54 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x234c…90dbbacked Yes | 39c | 51.41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 581 | 38.9%226 W · 355 L | +10.9wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb077…74d3backed No | 64c | 51$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.36 | 669 | 44.7%299 W · 370 L | +3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x304b…a619backed No | 73c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 275 | 52%143 W · 132 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd62b…ceecbacked No | 73c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -4.1wins | -0.26per pick | 63cpaid | -46.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5ecf…af11backed No | 71c | 49.99$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 381 | 38.6%147 W · 234 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 73c | 49$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.45 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 29c | 47.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.08 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 69c | 45.7$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.29 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x351a…f836backed Yes | 35c | 43.19$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.32 | 286 | 49.3%141 W · 145 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 63c | 40$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.8 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f99…6734backed No | 70c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 548 | 53.1%291 W · 257 L | -28.7wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 31c | 37.37$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.75 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0a68…edd3backed Yes | 32c | 34.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.04 | 182 | 35.2%64 W · 118 L | -14.0wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2faa…26c2backed Yes | 37c | 33.7$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.47 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc85b…ba1bbacked No | 62c | 31$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.69 | 190 | 71.6%136 W · 54 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 68cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf33e…0ab8backed No | 73c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.1 | 192 | 59.4%114 W · 78 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8a2…c9b6backed No | 73c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.1 | 91 | 58.2%53 W · 38 L | -5.2wins | -0.06per pick | 64cpaid | -10%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6cb1…0f6ebacked No | 73c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.1 | 25 | 68%17 W · 8 L | +2.1wins | +0.08per pick | 60cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc1dc…48fabacked Yes | 38c | 26.32$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 122 | 38.5%47 W · 75 L | -10.6wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdc15…cca6backed No | 69c | 26$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.06 | 264 | 41.3%109 W · 155 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 71c | 26$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.54 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 64c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.1 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xacac…50fbbacked No | 73c | 21.48$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 283 | 60.4%171 W · 112 L | -8.6wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 62c | 21.32$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.1 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a20…89d2backed No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 317 | 66.9%212 W · 105 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c3e…5a86backed No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 46 | 65.2%30 W · 16 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb777…a722backed No | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 78 | 52.6%41 W · 37 L | -5.9wins | -0.08per pick | 60cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x43fd…59d3backed No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 159 | 61.6%98 W · 61 L | -5.7wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked No | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 927 | 61.7%572 W · 355 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb58…ccd0backed No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 160 | 65.6%105 W · 55 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a5c…767bbacked No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 57 | 56.1%32 W · 25 L | -7.3wins | -0.13per pick | 69cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xee25…63ccbacked No | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 200 | 56.5%113 W · 87 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb814…dd31backed No | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 111 | 54.1%60 W · 51 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.1 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9518…9e0cbacked No | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 72 | 51.4%37 W · 35 L | -7.5wins | -0.10per pick | 62cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 63c | 19.9$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.36 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb431…82ecbacked No | 66c | 19.12$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.45 | 297 | 69.4%206 W · 91 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3edf…e863backed No | 67c | 19$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.27 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | -5.9wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 69c | 19$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1461…b97ebacked No | 70c | 17.3$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.26 | 280 | 35.4%99 W · 181 L | -69.3wins | -0.25per pick | 60cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 25-0.23 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked No | 70c | 14.68$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.45 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 90-91°F on July 28?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be 96°F or higher on July 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 86-87°F on July 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 88-89°F on July 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 92-93°F on July 28?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 94-95°F on July 28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.