NBA · resolved market
Spread: Timberwolves (-12.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x089ac9a9d4e1b7b742bc7c53cebd265e8ef7f77e2a24f33183509d6b0aa06e8f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Timberwolvesof Timberwolves, Kings
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $39,867
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $41,182
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $39,867 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5ad4…3c1abacked Timberwolves | 48c | 26,155$12,554 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,600.55 | 77 | 48.1%37 W · 40 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Kings | 52c | 14,729$7,700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,700.44 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e2f…ec47backed Kings | 52c | 10,000$5,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,200 | 747 | 48.5%362 W · 385 L | +8.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Kings | 52c | 3,719$1,927 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,926.77 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e5…2d3abacked Timberwolves | 48c | 1,240$595 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$644.58 | 653 | 39.5%258 W · 395 L | -24.6wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Timberwolves | 46c | 1,050$483 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$567 | 857 | 42.6%365 W · 492 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa5cf…8cc5backed Timberwolves | 44c | 1,041$458 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$583.19 | 432 | 47.5%205 W · 227 L | +11.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x357b…0b65backed Kings | 54c | 925.93$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 271 | 58.3%158 W · 113 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Kings | 53c | 738.49$394 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$393.7 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Kings | 52c | 609.34$317 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$316.62 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Kings | 54c | 579.99$314 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$314.43 | 2,736 | 46.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L | -67.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8331…965abacked Timberwolves | 47c | 440$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$233.2 | 47 | 55.3%26 W · 21 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa198…9601backed Timberwolves | 49c | 246.78$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.9 | 163 | 46.6%76 W · 87 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf3dd…45d3backed Timberwolves | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.08 | 63 | 55.6%35 W · 28 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c41…18edbacked Timberwolves | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.08 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8059…c043backed Timberwolves | 48c | 200$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104 | 261 | 50.2%131 W · 130 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8556…a766backed Kings | 54c | 182$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.28 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.19per pick | 56cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x553b…f71cbacked Timberwolves | 47c | 149.99$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.49 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +2.8wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfa43…3215backed Timberwolves | 48c | 140.6$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.11 | 50 | 50%25 W · 25 L | -3.3wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x661e…81d6backed Kings | 53c | 113.12$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 157 | 59.9%94 W · 63 L | +9.5wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0cc5…9cf9backed Timberwolves | 47c | 106.38$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.38 | 69 | 56.5%39 W · 30 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x48f8…9166backed Timberwolves | 48c | 104.17$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.17 | 171 | 45.6%78 W · 93 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc58e…0893backed Timberwolves | 49c | 102.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.04 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e0…4d8fbacked Timberwolves | 48c | 73$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.96 | 659 | 50.8%335 W · 324 L | +15.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf921…94dbbacked Kings | 55c | 72.73$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 67 | 49.3%33 W · 34 L | -6.7wins | -0.10per pick | 59cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x51dd…2f92backed Kings | 56c | 71.65$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 199 | 44.7%89 W · 110 L | -15.0wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x787c…7ae2backed Timberwolves | 46c | 70$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.1 | 89 | 57.3%51 W · 38 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd3b…51dabacked Kings | 54c | 66.67$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 46 | 56.5%26 W · 20 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f03…64d6backed Kings | 53c | 56.76$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.08 | 1,046 | 51.1%534 W · 512 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…aec0backed Kings | 54c | 46.3$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b0b…1466backed Timberwolves | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.67 | 34 | 55.9%19 W · 15 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x003b…4da0backed Timberwolves | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.82 | 55 | 43.6%24 W · 31 L | -6.6wins | -0.12per pick | 56cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5729…c366backed Timberwolves | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.82 | 48 | 50%24 W · 24 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x895d…4970backed Kings | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 126 | 46.8%59 W · 67 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Timberwolves | 45c | 37.77$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.77 | 4,325 | 47%2,031 W · 2,294 L | -69.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e47…a7abbacked Kings | 52c | 35.21$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.31 | 498 | 52.4%261 W · 237 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf597…f4aebacked Kings | 54c | 27.78$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 46 | 45.7%21 W · 25 L | -3.7wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Timberwolves | 45c | 27$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.85 | 1,695 | 44.7%758 W · 937 L | -30.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ac7…03efbacked Kings | 53c | 22.64$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 74 | 55.4%41 W · 33 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74f0…67e3backed Kings | 54c | 22.3$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.04 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -2.7wins | -0.23per pick | 56cpaid | -43.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8043…7fe3backed Kings | 54c | 22.22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7b8…8e45backed Kings | 55c | 21.96$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 21 | 71.4%15 W · 6 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 63cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8296…e9cbbacked Kings | 55c | 21.82$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xadd4…3ae9backed Kings | 54c | 20.14$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.87 | 40 | 57.5%23 W · 17 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe50b…c2a8backed Kings | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 658 | 55.6%366 W · 292 L | +27.0wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Timberwolves (-12.5)this page
- Kings vs. TimberwolvesTimberwolves won
- Kings vs. Timberwolves: O/U 239.5Under won
- Kings vs. Timberwolves: O/U 240.5Under won
- Spread: Timberwolves (-11.5)Timberwolves won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.