NBA · resolved market
Kings vs. Timberwolves: O/U 239.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x18540e3d45d2da49ebcb7fa420637aa8e5fff798bf3ee76cdc7425fe6366cd6e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $565,568
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $565,979
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $565,568 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2635…5408backed Under | 51c | 541,025$274,733 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$266,291.84 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbad…9c95backed Over | 49c | 250,000$122,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122,500 | 63 | 52.4%33 W · 30 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3151…0977backed Over | 49c | 150,000$73,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73,500 | 192 | 49.5%95 W · 97 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Over | 50c | 102,332$51,166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51,166 | 2,361 | 48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 49c | 11,298$5,585 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,584.53 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb43…3c74backed Over | 49c | 10,000$4,900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,900 | 477 | 48.8%233 W · 244 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57a8…6933backed Over | 50c | 7,537$3,769 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,768.5 | 927 | 53.5%496 W · 431 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Under | 50c | 7,000$3,530 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,470 | 1,820 | 52.1%948 W · 872 L | +48.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd2b2…d101backed Over | 50c | 6,000$3,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,000 | 162 | 51.9%84 W · 78 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Over | 50c | 4,589$2,301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,301.43 | 698 | 52%363 W · 335 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7a…db40backed Over | 50c | 4,388$2,209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,208.7 | 180 | 47.8%86 W · 94 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 50c | 2,362$1,182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,180.15 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1013…87d5backed Over | 49c | 2,000$980 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$980 | 88 | 63.6%56 W · 32 L | +6.2wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Under | 47c | 1,057$497 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$560 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0585…5fa1backed Over | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x855d…349fbacked Over | 57c | 702.61$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x504f…3ddcbacked Over | 50c | 566$283 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$283 | 173 | 56.6%98 W · 75 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 49c | 500$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245 | 4,325 | 47%2,031 W · 2,294 L | -69.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb113…8bc6backed Under | 49c | 444$218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226.44 | 226 | 56.6%128 W · 98 L | +13.0wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Under | 50c | 370$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Under | 41c | 325$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.06 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Over | 50c | 262$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Over | 50c | 250$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 179 | 41.9%75 W · 104 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21e2…bd6dbacked Over | 50c | 232.28$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.14 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7019…dcefbacked Under | 57c | 228.07$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.07 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 45c | 228.07$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.44 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd58b…48e8backed Over | 49c | 200$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 63 | 58.7%37 W · 26 L | +5.6wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked Over | 49c | 200$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 107 | 35.5%38 W · 69 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d4b…a250backed Over | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 344 | 47.4%163 W · 181 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x068f…4594backed Over | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 80 | 45%36 W · 44 L | -5.7wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x10a8…8629backed Over | 69c | 144.93$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb5dd…b094backed Over | 51c | 120$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.2 | 339 | 50.1%170 W · 169 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8086…a1debacked Over | 49c | 102.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e2f…ec47backed Under | 48c | 100.77$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.4 | 747 | 48.5%362 W · 385 L | +8.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd960…1adebacked Over | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 136 | 52.2%71 W · 65 L | +4.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc319…a062backed Under | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe827…5209backed Over | 52c | 100$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 35 | 68.6%24 W · 11 L | +6.9wins | +0.20per pick | 49cpaid | +35.3%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x8044…358ebacked Over | 51c | 99.99$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.99 | 549 | 51.9%285 W · 264 L | -2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x602d…3534backed Over | 50c | 70$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 377 | 55.7%210 W · 167 L | +11.1wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x27ec…ad73backed Over | 52c | 48.08$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 194 | 51.5%100 W · 94 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5961…56dbbacked Under | 49c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.4 | 378 | 48.9%185 W · 193 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57bc…d82dbacked Over | 51c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 56 | 57.1%32 W · 24 L | +3.5wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbc22…1365backed Over | 50c | 34$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +1.8wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f1c…2be4backed Under | 49c | 30.92$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.92 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | -3.7wins | -0.13per pick | 51cpaid | -25%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x218e…e49dbacked Over | 51c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 482 | 55%265 W · 217 L | -9.6wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2,091 | 47.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L | -56.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Kings vs. Timberwolves: O/U 239.5this page
- Kings vs. TimberwolvesTimberwolves won
- Kings vs. Timberwolves: O/U 240.5Under won
- Spread: Timberwolves (-11.5)Timberwolves won
- Spread: Timberwolves (-12.5)Timberwolves won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.