NBA · resolved market
Spread: Timberwolves (-11.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0208f805c83b54aaeb06d1836f72de8e3c0b6f2fa2e821ed5db23241ad5e1d80
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Timberwolvesof Timberwolves, Kings
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $470,659
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $472,861
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $470,659 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 79 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9165…5b98backed Timberwolves | 50c | 416,574$209,139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207,435.64 | 252 | 48.4%122 W · 130 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Kings | 50c | 368,185$184,092 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184,092.44 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Kings | 48c | 31,027$14,987 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,987.17 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc3c3…eec8backed Kings | 49c | 15,029$7,413 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,412.51 | 382 | 48.7%186 W · 196 L | +13.9wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f03…64d6backed Kings | 50c | 14,771$7,386 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,385.5 | 1,046 | 51.1%534 W · 512 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3151…0977backed Timberwolves | 50c | 9,637$4,818 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,818.49 | 192 | 49.5%95 W · 97 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed Kings | 49c | 8,099$3,929 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,929.02 | 1,139 | 48.3%550 W · 589 L | +3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Kings | 48c | 5,025$2,412 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,412 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb43…3c74backed Timberwolves | 50c | 5,000$2,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,500 | 477 | 48.8%233 W · 244 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57a8…6933backed Kings | 50c | 4,033$2,017 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,016.5 | 927 | 53.5%496 W · 431 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ae…7b92backed Timberwolves | 50c | 4,000$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,000 | 181 | 42%76 W · 105 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41b7…f6babacked Timberwolves | 51c | 4,000$2,040 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,960 | 801 | 46.4%372 W · 429 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ecd…a578backed Kings | 51c | 3,586$1,829 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,828.86 | 231 | 35.1%81 W · 150 L | -11.1wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec13…862bbacked Timberwolves | 50c | 3,434$1,717 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,717 | 288 | 50.3%145 W · 143 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Kings | 49c | 2,547$1,251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,250.66 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Timberwolves | 52c | 2,495$1,301 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,194.09 | 2,091 | 47.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L | -56.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7a…db40backed Timberwolves | 49c | 2,250$1,103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,147.5 | 180 | 47.8%86 W · 94 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e2f…ec47backed Kings | 47c | 1,800$846 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$845.81 | 747 | 48.5%362 W · 385 L | +8.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1341…0853backed Kings | 49c | 1,165$571 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$570.98 | 257 | 53.7%138 W · 119 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Timberwolves | 46c | 1,020$470 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$550.04 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6bd…270cbacked Timberwolves | 52c | 1,000$520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$480 | 124 | 52.4%65 W · 59 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb00…42e9backed Timberwolves | 50c | 800$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$400 | 44 | 54.5%24 W · 20 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Timberwolves | 50c | 714$357 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$357 | 2,361 | 48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5623…6930backed Timberwolves | 51c | 600$306 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$294 | 239 | 38.1%91 W · 148 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1377…56aebacked Timberwolves | 50c | 600$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300 | 74 | 47.3%35 W · 39 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfc1…818dbacked Timberwolves | 53c | 511$271 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240.39 | 394 | 49.2%194 W · 200 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45d6…36cbbacked Timberwolves | 52c | 480.77$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.77 | 245 | 33.9%83 W · 162 L | -19.1wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Kings | 48c | 475$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228 | 1,451 | 49.7%721 W · 730 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6884…6ccfbacked Timberwolves | 53c | 470.34$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221.06 | 390 | 51.5%201 W · 189 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3a…7b63backed Kings | 49c | 370$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.3 | 762 | 49.5%377 W · 385 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3504…e042backed Kings | 48c | 350$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168 | 68 | 44.1%30 W · 38 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf3e…1726backed Timberwolves | 53c | 300$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141 | 46 | 58.7%27 W · 19 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd07…cb4ebacked Timberwolves | 52c | 288.46$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.46 | 201 | 43.3%87 W · 114 L | -12.4wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Timberwolves | 50c | 250$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125 | 4,325 | 47%2,031 W · 2,294 L | -69.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Kings | 48c | 250$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x117c…db06backed Timberwolves | 52c | 226.92$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.92 | 180 | 47.2%85 W · 95 L | -4.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d24…e803backed Timberwolves | 52c | 224.96$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.98 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +2.0wins | +0.12per pick | 53cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Kings | 49c | 218.98$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.3 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf36f…fb15backed Timberwolves | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.08 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | +3.1wins | +0.13per pick | 51cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6d58…8accbacked Timberwolves | 52c | 200$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96 | 358 | 51.7%185 W · 173 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd58b…48e8backed Timberwolves | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 63 | 58.7%37 W · 26 L | +5.6wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2de8…1121backed Timberwolves | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.31 | 909 | 57.6%524 W · 385 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa43…3215backed Timberwolves | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.31 | 50 | 50%25 W · 25 L | -3.3wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e13…732fbacked Timberwolves | 52c | 192$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.16 | 66 | 48.5%32 W · 34 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed Kings | 50c | 176$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88 | 662 | 50.8%336 W · 326 L | +15.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Timberwolves | 48c | 141.02$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.23 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e84…768ebacked Kings | 51c | 133.33$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 136 | 44.9%61 W · 75 L | -7.7wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe49a…f498backed Timberwolves | 52c | 115.38$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.38 | 57 | 43.9%25 W · 32 L | -6.0wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9d89…3e65backed Timberwolves | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69dc…336dbacked Timberwolves | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 129 | 50.4%65 W · 64 L | -3.9wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x813e…31c8backed Timberwolves | 49c | 100$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | +2.2wins | +0.10per pick | 58cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2921…78b3backed Timberwolves | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 54 | 51.9%28 W · 26 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x504f…3ddcbacked Timberwolves | 51c | 98.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.04 | 173 | 56.6%98 W · 75 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87d5…9790backed Timberwolves | 52c | 97$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.56 | 133 | 58.6%78 W · 55 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Kings | 49c | 92$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.99 | 1,695 | 44.7%758 W · 937 L | -30.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb966…cac6backed Timberwolves | 51c | 78.43$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.43 | 253 | 51%129 W · 124 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0e2…31e4backed Timberwolves | 53c | 75.47$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.47 | 112 | 51.8%58 W · 54 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b34…6296backed Timberwolves | 53c | 75.47$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.47 | 102 | 53.9%55 W · 47 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed Timberwolves | 49c | 72.75$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.1 | 2,435 | 49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L | +30.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8ae…7f3ebacked Timberwolves | 51c | 70$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.3 | 149 | 53%79 W · 70 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a3c…93d7backed Timberwolves | 52c | 67.85$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.57 | 403 | 46.2%186 W · 217 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Kings | 48c | 64.33$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.89 | 2,736 | 46.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L | -67.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a87…fb21backed Kings | 51c | 60$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.6 | 624 | 50%312 W · 312 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Kings | 48c | 58.84$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.27 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0da5…5adfbacked Timberwolves | 52c | 57.69$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.69 | 125 | 50.4%63 W · 62 L | -7.6wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x061e…81e0backed Timberwolves | 52c | 57.69$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.69 | 198 | 49%97 W · 101 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbda3…ef65backed Timberwolves | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 372 | 53.5%199 W · 173 L | +9.5wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd22f…d0eebacked Timberwolves | 52c | 48.08$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.08 | 408 | 53.7%219 W · 189 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3303…03afbacked Timberwolves | 53c | 47.17$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.17 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -2.6wins | -0.16per pick | 60cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x787c…7ae2backed Timberwolves | 52c | 45$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.6 | 89 | 57.3%51 W · 38 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2a…845bbacked Timberwolves | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.46 | 85 | 57.6%49 W · 36 L | +5.1wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbc22…1365backed Timberwolves | 51c | 33.33$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.33 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +1.8wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x762b…2b49backed Kings | 70c | 30$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 33 | 54.5%18 W · 15 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc228…7a7dbacked Kings | 49c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 84 | 57.1%48 W · 36 L | +9.4wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +34.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8191…8a35backed Kings | 50c | 22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 95 | 49.5%47 W · 48 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73b8…aa92backed Timberwolves | 50c | 22$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…c47fbacked Timberwolves | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 131 | 55%72 W · 59 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8211…8981backed Kings | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -2.8wins | -0.20per pick | 49cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x21e2…bd6dbacked Timberwolves | 51c | 19.9$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.75 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Timberwolves (-11.5)this page
- Kings vs. TimberwolvesTimberwolves won
- Kings vs. Timberwolves: O/U 239.5Under won
- Kings vs. Timberwolves: O/U 240.5Under won
- Spread: Timberwolves (-12.5)Timberwolves won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.