Us Politics · resolved market
Trump declares a national emergency by March 31, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0906b6dbfa6fc52882b149752cf78b11e4216b006e6beac9f0fa27d7755bfa49
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,734
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,549
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,734 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked No | 2c | 1,000$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 132 | 16.7%22 W · 110 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 2c | 572.79$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.27 | 1,136 | 6.3%72 W · 1,064 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b31…398ebacked No | 15c | 475$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.75 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +2.1wins | +0.35per pick | 15cpaid | +325.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5ad8…93b6backed No | 45c | 400$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9df2…d4a9backed No | 13c | 350$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 30 | 6.7%2 W · 28 L | -2.6wins | -0.09per pick | 15cpaid | -49.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa1a5…d228backed No | 13c | 350$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 16cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc934…5551backed No | 13c | 350$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 25 | 8%2 W · 23 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 15cpaid | -19%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 17c | 311$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.33 | 122 | 7.4%9 W · 113 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeafc…0d5cbacked Yes | 54c | 302.11$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.19 | 49 | 57.1%28 W · 21 L | +8.3wins | +0.17per pick | 40cpaid | +47.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Yes | 55c | 232.15$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.47 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +1.9wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 37c | 198.38$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.54 | 336 | 18.5%62 W · 274 L | -46.5wins | -0.14per pick | 32cpaid | -60%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x5e73…6697backed Yes | 64c | 135$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.6 | 193 | 48.2%93 W · 100 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked No | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 68 | 32.4%22 W · 46 L | -8.1wins | -0.12per pick | 44cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x073a…2cdabacked Yes | 37c | 60$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.63per pick | 37cpaid | +171.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb294…ab90backed No | 70c | 60$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.8 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.7wins | -0.43per pick | 68cpaid | -64.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb2a9…afedbacked No | 75c | 53.16$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8bd5…8d10backed No | 27c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2dc…223ebacked No | 28c | 42.85$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 66 | 16.7%11 W · 55 L | -7.5wins | -0.11per pick | 28cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0711…f03cbacked Yes | 29c | 36.61$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.95 | 226 | 41.6%94 W · 132 L | +6.8wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d12…ab54backed No | 74c | 33.9$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb66…5e13backed No | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -3.4wins | -0.34per pick | 64cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Trump declares a national emergency by March 31, 2026?this page
- Trump declares a national emergency by June 30, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.