Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 78-79°F on August 18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x09306e9a2e797cbf2c7f0ac83b1bf4fea29df9ca40d617a002a7df2a68244d5a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,483
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,750
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,483 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7b54…96f8backed No | 1c | 2,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ecf…af11backed No | 72c | 892$644 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$644.4 | 381 | 38.6%147 W · 234 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x331b…193fbacked Yes | 15c | 706.53$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$601.19 | 900 | 40.7%366 W · 534 L | +112.3wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x8817…cda8backed Yes | 79c | 616.81$488 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.33 | 248 | 41.1%102 W · 146 L | -13.5wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 11c | 436.01$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$390.04 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed Yes | 37c | 416$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$262.39 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac31…d452backed No | 8c | 379.17$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cb0…c615backed No | 6c | 324.59$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.55 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +1.4wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4118…d2ffbacked Yes | 38c | 245.96$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.63 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 12c | 200.21$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.18 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa054…a95dbacked Yes | 51c | 159.41$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.29 | 399 | 66.2%264 W · 135 L | +33.6wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked Yes | 75c | 155.46$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.13 | 656 | 25.8%169 W · 487 L | -13.2wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 8c | 155.34$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.67 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 28c | 140$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.5 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1822…022fbacked Yes | 9c | 111.99$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.91 | 155 | 20.6%32 W · 123 L | -7.3wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x56fd…d60dbacked Yes | 76c | 109.71$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.74 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -18%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 65c | 106.41$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.26 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaafc…ec67backed Yes | 59c | 100$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41 | 447 | 57.3%256 W · 191 L | +53.9wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +24%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x2250…4cd7backed Yes | 22c | 79.99$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.7 | 119 | 50.4%60 W · 59 L | +6.7wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 29c | 71.85$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.99 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 74c | 60.68$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.73 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 39c | 56.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 771 | 51%393 W · 378 L | +23.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 78c | 55.97$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.58 | 805 | 60.6%488 W · 317 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d29…5b7dbacked Yes | 39c | 49.93$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.52 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 28c | 41.65$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.61 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 58c | 41.5$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.27 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7274…c205backed Yes | 30c | 40.81$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.55 | 213 | 61%130 W · 83 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73e7…8b59backed Yes | 26c | 40$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.6 | 434 | 41.5%180 W · 254 L | +29.3wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed Yes | 70c | 38.16$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.45 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 53c | 37$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.46 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 80c | 33.06$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.37 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x96e6…fecebacked Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.25 | 261 | 42.1%110 W · 151 L | +15.8wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +16%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 60c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.06 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x35fc…ac54backed Yes | 49c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.4 | 247 | 51.8%128 W · 119 L | +24.7wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a1…13d6backed Yes | 63c | 27.81$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.32 | 69 | 49.3%34 W · 35 L | +3.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 52c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 710 | 57.9%411 W · 299 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa0ae…4a1ebacked No | 43c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.75 | 58 | 53.4%31 W · 27 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 73c | 22.38$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.35 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 50c | 19.99$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.9 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed No | 73c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.95 | 896 | 61.7%553 W · 343 L | +15.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 78-79°F on August 18?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 80-81°F on August 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 82-83°F on August 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 84-85°F on August 18?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.