Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 80-81°F on August 18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x93e9f65463b5cf5131e8ebba83de109ec15a40ba107663cc45512b220b5a9165
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,275
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,727
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,275 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7e9c…f3a8backed Yes | 52c | 895.12$461 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$461.35 | 602 | 36.5%220 W · 382 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 49c | 345.79$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.11 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 48c | 341.86$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.19 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked No | 45c | 192.07$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.63 | 656 | 25.8%169 W · 487 L | -13.2wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 62c | 118.58$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.78 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e00…5a84backed Yes | 57c | 115.86$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.88 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68a3…5dd5backed No | 46c | 107.58$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.24 | 467 | 43.7%204 W · 263 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 64c | 99.56$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.64 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee25…63ccbacked No | 51c | 97.83$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 200 | 56.5%113 W · 87 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2572…80dbbacked Yes | 58c | 89.48$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.9 | 144 | 46.5%67 W · 77 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x012f…400dbacked No | 33c | 80.49$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.93 | 348 | 31%108 W · 240 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f1d…c41dbacked No | 37c | 78.22$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.28 | 218 | 47.7%104 W · 114 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 63c | 76.42$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.33 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ecf…af11backed Yes | 22c | 72.69$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.13 | 381 | 38.6%147 W · 234 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 55c | 71.8$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.45 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 52c | 66.12$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.41 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x897a…4194backed No | 56c | 56.76$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.93 | 55 | 41.8%23 W · 32 L | -3.4wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6120…f1febacked Yes | 53c | 56.6$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 827 | 42.8%354 W · 473 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 75c | 55.97$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.26 | 805 | 60.6%488 W · 317 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x304b…a619backed No | 46c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 275 | 52%143 W · 132 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc9de…81d9backed Yes | 34c | 49.39$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.79 | 420 | 36.4%153 W · 267 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 41c | 48.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.42 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x95d3…6effbacked Yes | 54c | 45.5$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.57 | 317 | 48.6%154 W · 163 L | +16.0wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0428…7d12backed No | 45c | 44.43$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.44 | 301 | 36.9%111 W · 190 L | -8.5wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed No | 48c | 40$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.8 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ba5…c168backed No | 52c | 40$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.2 | 35 | 25.7%9 W · 26 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 46c | 37.17$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.07 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86f8…2ed6backed Yes | 55c | 36.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.15per pick | 69cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 62c | 36.06$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.36 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 54c | 35.96$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.42 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 35c | 34.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.75 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3dde…f561backed Yes | 67c | 34.79$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.31 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.26per pick | 46cpaid | -51.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 66c | 34.62$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.74 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa397…7817backed Yes | 45c | 34.09$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.29 | 140 | 53.6%75 W · 65 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 48c | 33.07$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.24 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e20…dddcbacked Yes | 55c | 32.51$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.88 | 285 | 46.3%132 W · 153 L | -17.3wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x87b3…d03bbacked No | 37c | 32.19$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.36 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 60c | 31.25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.44 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf73b…10bfbacked No | 46c | 31$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.74 | 283 | 44.5%126 W · 157 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked Yes | 53c | 30.73$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.15 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 64c | 30.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.79 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 77c | 30.16$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.98 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked No | 45c | 28.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.87 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 42c | 28.29$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.29 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 54c | 27.77$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 78c | 27.13$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf28…e94bbacked Yes | 66c | 25.85$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.06 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.16per pick | 59cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 62c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 710 | 57.9%411 W · 299 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b7…f43cbacked No | 45c | 24.83$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.67 | 308 | 34.4%106 W · 202 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 55c | 24.02$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.78 | 799 | 47.9%383 W · 416 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x83bb…b01fbacked Yes | 56c | 23.9$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.33 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c90…17efbacked No | 66c | 22.21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.54 | 288 | 47.2%136 W · 152 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x11c9…232cbacked Yes | 50c | 22.02$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 46 | 21.7%10 W · 36 L | -2.5wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 48c | 21.32$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.19 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbdc9…6dfdbacked No | 66c | 21.04$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.15 | 205 | 74.6%153 W · 52 L | +7.5wins | +0.04per pick | 71cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12bd…aa80backed Yes | 67c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -3.0wins | -0.17per pick | 44cpaid | -36%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa0ae…4a1ebacked No | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.53 | 58 | 53.4%31 W · 27 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 63c | 17.93$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.32 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…56e7backed Yes | 60c | 16.75$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 421 | 48%202 W · 219 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4a0…9d29backed Yes | 66c | 16$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 91 | 37.4%34 W · 57 L | +6.6wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 80-81°F on August 18?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 78-79°F on August 18?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 82-83°F on August 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 84-85°F on August 18?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.