Valorant · resolved market
Valorant: Natus Vincere vs Fnatic - Map 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0944d420a956830aae46d0d9ef5c5f53b9833e1ae3b57414ea849644aeaf5010
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Fnaticof Natus Vincere, Fnatic
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Valorantevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $44,623
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $48,360
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $44,623 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Valorant is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Valorant | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x471e…290cbacked Natus Vincere | 0c | 20,998$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0224…292abacked Natus Vincere | 38c | 3,219$1,218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,217.59 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +3.5wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa435…d34ebacked Natus Vincere | 36c | 2,402$868 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$868.15 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked Fnatic | 65c | 2,092$1,349 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$742.63 | 684 | 58.3%399 W · 285 L | +56.5wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x41a3…017dbacked Fnatic | 76c | 1,026$777 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$249.27 | 27 | 63%17 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f97…4059backed Natus Vincere | 40c | 1,020$408 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$408 | 249 | 46.2%115 W · 134 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e88…5ddabacked Fnatic | 58c | 871.28$509 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$361.8 | 29 | 69%20 W · 9 L | +5.2wins | +0.18per pick | 51cpaid | +31%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x182d…73e9backed Natus Vincere | 41c | 600$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246 | 390 | 42.6%166 W · 224 L | +19.3wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfe8a…23cebacked Natus Vincere | 26c | 351.99$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.09 | 553 | 48.3%267 W · 286 L | -9.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d94…017dbacked Natus Vincere | 23c | 322.05$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.09 | 888 | 44.4%394 W · 494 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2529…548abacked Natus Vincere | 28c | 232.99$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.34 | 520 | 50%260 W · 260 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a78…add7backed Natus Vincere | 24c | 223.11$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.69 | 395 | 45.8%181 W · 214 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd6…ab3dbacked Fnatic | 55c | 200$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 175 | 43.4%76 W · 99 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9fb8…85b9backed Natus Vincere | 26c | 168.92$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.92 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc0…4b85backed Fnatic | 64c | 153.73$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.04 | 931 | 48.1%448 W · 483 L | -11.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Natus Vincere | 19c | 144.62$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.43 | 702 | 51.3%360 W · 342 L | +7.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc226…497dbacked Fnatic | 72c | 139.31$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.31 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Natus Vincere | 31c | 112.95$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.55 | 1,417 | 51.3%727 W · 690 L | +49.9wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda16…6da2backed Natus Vincere | 24c | 99.75$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.76 | 97 | 50.5%49 W · 48 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab4d…554bbacked Fnatic | 70c | 79.98$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.99 | 39 | 41%16 W · 23 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x820b…d27abacked Fnatic | 64c | 45.42$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.17 | 107 | 43%46 W · 61 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Fnatic | 79c | 43$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.98 | 182 | 41.2%75 W · 107 L | -8.5wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8849…9a83backed Fnatic | 67c | 38.49$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.84 | 214 | 54.2%116 W · 98 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6976…3185backed Fnatic | 64c | 37.17$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.51 | 31 | 64.5%20 W · 11 L | +4.7wins | +0.15per pick | 49cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdd9a…796cbacked Fnatic | 74c | 33.78$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.78 | 87 | 50.6%44 W · 43 L | -4.9wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc963…4137backed Fnatic | 67c | 21.72$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.20per pick | 58cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x56f9…53d0backed Fnatic | 59c | 19$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.79 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1976…e363backed Fnatic | 68c | 16.85$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 28 | 71.4%20 W · 8 L | +4.5wins | +0.16per pick | 55cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Valorant and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Valorant: Natus Vincere vs Fnatic - Map 1 Winnerthis page
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Over won
- Map Handicap: FNC (-1.5) vs Natus Vincere (+1.5)Natus Vincere won
- Valorant: Natus Vincere vs Fnatic (BO3) - VCT EMEA Kickoff PlayoffsFnatic won
- Valorant: Natus Vincere vs Fnatic - Map 2 WinnerNatus Vincere won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.