Valorant · resolved market
Valorant: Natus Vincere vs Fnatic - Map 2 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe1d41cb54435eeffc1fea7ca6e3db1d877a170d112a04f3bfce09edbcc4b4110
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Natus Vincereof Natus Vincere, Fnatic
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Valorantevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,648
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,353
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,648 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Valorant is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Valorant | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4047…7293backed Fnatic | 63c | 1,902$1,197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,196.89 | 107 | 56.1%60 W · 47 L | +8.6wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa435…d34ebacked Natus Vincere | 37c | 1,892$700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,191.89 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8f9…fee2backed Fnatic | 30c | 1,347$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 282 | 47.5%134 W · 148 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d91…bb2abacked Natus Vincere | 76c | 1,315$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$315.26 | 76 | 59.2%45 W · 31 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64a8…7bc3backed Natus Vincere | 68c | 1,235$834 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$400.58 | 66 | 72.7%48 W · 18 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 69cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked Natus Vincere | 51c | 1,230$627 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$603.19 | 684 | 58.3%399 W · 285 L | +56.5wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5e88…5ddabacked Natus Vincere | 48c | 940.24$455 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$485.74 | 29 | 69%20 W · 9 L | +5.2wins | +0.18per pick | 51cpaid | +31%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x850a…e5dbbacked Natus Vincere | 61c | 689.22$419 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270.47 | 79 | 60.8%48 W · 31 L | -4.9wins | -0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -10%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7a78…add7backed Fnatic | 49c | 678.37$331 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$331.42 | 395 | 45.8%181 W · 214 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6183…575fbacked Fnatic | 47c | 638.3$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc0…4b85backed Fnatic | 34c | 594.78$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.38 | 931 | 48.1%448 W · 483 L | -11.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Fnatic | 54c | 523.4$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280.47 | 1,358 | 39%530 W · 828 L | -57.9wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -17%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Fnatic | 52c | 518.25$272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$271.92 | 1,417 | 51.3%727 W · 690 L | +49.9wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedf7…5ac3backed Fnatic | 55c | 507.73$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$279.77 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x307d…9163backed Fnatic | 50c | 438.76$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.79 | 224 | 55.4%124 W · 100 L | -12.6wins | -0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -10%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa825…2ef0backed Fnatic | 46c | 400$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | -4.2wins | -0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0ddd…5366backed Fnatic | 56c | 330$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184 | 49 | 49%24 W · 25 L | -5.1wins | -0.10per pick | 59cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfe8a…23cebacked Fnatic | 51c | 306.51$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.64 | 553 | 48.3%267 W · 286 L | -9.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb877…a13fbacked Fnatic | 12c | 286.34$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.23 | 247 | 32%79 W · 168 L | +6.3wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2529…548abacked Fnatic | 49c | 280$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.6 | 520 | 50%260 W · 260 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72aa…90e0backed Fnatic | 48c | 279.99$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.34 | 796 | 50%398 W · 398 L | +9.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d91…c930backed Natus Vincere | 56c | 247.21$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.76 | 212 | 57.1%121 W · 91 L | +8.2wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c15…73b3backed Fnatic | 65c | 246.15$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.33per pick | 58cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x368d…d853backed Fnatic | 37c | 243$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.06 | 144 | 47.2%68 W · 76 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x34f9…12ebbacked Natus Vincere | 40c | 237.97$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.38 | 212 | 40.1%85 W · 127 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4f…46c2backed Natus Vincere | 55c | 208.46$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.06 | 76 | 50%38 W · 38 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03b0…482cbacked Natus Vincere | 71c | 196.26$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.26 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.15per pick | 72cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf21d…922bbacked Fnatic | 66c | 172$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.52 | 60 | 63.3%38 W · 22 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…7645backed Fnatic | 51c | 155.73$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.76 | 316 | 34.2%108 W · 208 L | -18.8wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Natus Vincere | 61c | 150.51$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.69 | 702 | 51.3%360 W · 342 L | +7.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c0b…7aa5backed Natus Vincere | 55c | 149.08$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.09 | 129 | 51.2%66 W · 63 L | +7.8wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf628…ba6fbacked Natus Vincere | 43c | 143.15$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.2 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +1.6wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ac1…2ea7backed Fnatic | 30c | 138.38$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.71 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.19per pick | 34cpaid | -80%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3d…189dbacked Fnatic | 47c | 126.71$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8849…9a83backed Fnatic | 77c | 113.73$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88 | 214 | 54.2%116 W · 98 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6998…ae95backed Fnatic | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -13%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1eda…3b84backed Fnatic | 36c | 80$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.1 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -2.1wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xac03…3840backed Fnatic | 67c | 74.63$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -2.0wins | -0.11per pick | 58cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdaec…eaafbacked Fnatic | 48c | 72.94$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda16…6da2backed Fnatic | 46c | 69.47$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.64 | 97 | 50.5%49 W · 48 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf104…d34cbacked Natus Vincere | 56c | 62.22$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.33 | 40 | 57.5%23 W · 17 L | +3.1wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x820b…d27abacked Fnatic | 43c | 61.07$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.96 | 107 | 43%46 W · 61 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7c7…24c2backed Natus Vincere | 61c | 60$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.4 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +1.6wins | +0.08per pick | 62cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbc67…5286backed Natus Vincere | 71c | 47$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.63 | 337 | 59.6%201 W · 136 L | +18.9wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1445…614abacked Natus Vincere | 56c | 44.86$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.92 | 125 | 52.8%66 W · 59 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd9a…796cbacked Fnatic | 67c | 42.74$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.76 | 87 | 50.6%44 W · 43 L | -4.9wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4b…69debacked Fnatic | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 519 | 48.4%251 W · 268 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd01a…bf29backed Fnatic | 61c | 40$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38d0…0671backed Natus Vincere | 51c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8da1…339ebacked Fnatic | 52c | 37$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.19 | 50 | 40%20 W · 30 L | -3.4wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9d94…017dbacked Natus Vincere | 50c | 32.68$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 888 | 44.4%394 W · 494 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f31…22d5backed Fnatic | 66c | 30.3$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 66cpaid | +27%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82bf…de71backed Fnatic | 51c | 29.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.1 | 257 | 52.1%134 W · 123 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x120e…588bbacked Natus Vincere | 68c | 25.44$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.26 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +68.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa5d6…532cbacked Fnatic | 66c | 25$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fb8…85b9backed Fnatic | 67c | 25$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.75 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98d0…01a4backed Fnatic | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 180 | 56.7%102 W · 78 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Valorant and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Valorant: Natus Vincere vs Fnatic - Map 2 Winnerthis page
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Over won
- Map Handicap: FNC (-1.5) vs Natus Vincere (+1.5)Natus Vincere won
- Valorant: Natus Vincere vs Fnatic (BO3) - VCT EMEA Kickoff PlayoffsFnatic won
- Valorant: Natus Vincere vs Fnatic - Map 1 WinnerFnatic won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.