Europa Conference League · resolved market
Rīga FC vs. FK Vardar Skopje: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x095526c2868bf6cb86fb436933c8fc8fe85b6053f0937192be6330e392cdc810
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $153,906
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $183,888
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $153,906 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4155…fa41backed Over | 10c | 80,768$7,914 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,914.27 | 77 | 67.5%52 W · 25 L | +6.1wins | +0.08per pick | 60cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdd09…8974backed Over | 0c | 28,464$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.3 | 21 | 9.5%2 W · 19 L | -3.3wins | -0.16per pick | 25cpaid | -81%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xacda…894cbacked Under | 30c | 1,500$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,050 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.70per pick | 30cpaid | +233.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa0f9…b48bbacked Under | 30c | 1,500$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,050 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.70per pick | 30cpaid | +233.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9774…3497backed Under | 30c | 1,500$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,050 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.70per pick | 30cpaid | +233.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4dfe…c9cebacked Under | 30c | 1,500$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,050 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.70per pick | 30cpaid | +233.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x19d8…965abacked Over | 2c | 1,225$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 83 | 16.9%14 W · 69 L | -6.1wins | -0.07per pick | 24cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Over | 9c | 1,177$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.84 | 2,473 | 33.9%839 W · 1,634 L | -95.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -25%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 75c | 1,115$837 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$278.82 | 3,726 | 47%1,750 W · 1,976 L | +20.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 18c | 997.35$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.6 | 1,604 | 38.9%624 W · 980 L | -17.7wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Over | 38c | 872.13$331 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$331.36 | 43 | 30.2%13 W · 30 L | -4.5wins | -0.11per pick | 41cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x84c1…4114backed Under | 30c | 833.33$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$583.33 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.15per pick | 19cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e7b…d719backed Under | 30c | 833.33$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$583.33 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 22cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70e8…0836backed Under | 30c | 833.33$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$583.33 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.12per pick | 22cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d66…331cbacked Under | 30c | 833.33$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$583.33 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 24cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 76c | 779.19$593 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.77 | 814 | 40.5%330 W · 484 L | -21.9wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0eed…1b88backed Under | 30c | 568.6$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$398.02 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.70per pick | 30cpaid | +233.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Over | 19c | 541.13$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.46 | 558 | 45%251 W · 307 L | +2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b6e…f544backed Over | 34c | 512.98$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.14 | 293 | 37.9%111 W · 182 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e80…73adbacked Under | 30c | 500$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$350 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.70per pick | 30cpaid | +233.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa057…d092backed Over | 38c | 408.26$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.09 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x789c…0d10backed Under | 75c | 331.54$248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.88 | 299 | 59.5%178 W · 121 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17d7…9e1ebacked Over | 37c | 287.57$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.8 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Under | 62c | 218.83$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.16 | 1,033 | 46.1%476 W · 557 L | -3.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x854a…5e9ebacked Under | 76c | 184$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.16 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 70cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Over | 24c | 117$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.08 | 2,333 | 41.7%972 W · 1,361 L | +25.5wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8543…ff1bbacked Under | 77c | 84.94$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.8 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…aa5abacked Over | 28c | 80.35$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.34 | 96 | 68.8%66 W · 30 L | +11.3wins | +0.12per pick | 57cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2d67…3667backed Under | 64c | 75.94$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.34 | 318 | 56%178 W · 140 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe84f…b777backed Under | 77c | 53.86$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.46 | 191 | 63.4%121 W · 70 L | +10.5wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x47c9…2038backed Over | 38c | 50.42$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.11 | 52 | 36.5%19 W · 33 L | -4.0wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ee…9e81backed Under | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 112 | 60.7%68 W · 44 L | +8.2wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Under | 76c | 46.19$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.13 | 969 | 47.5%460 W · 509 L | +13.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14e7…a32cbacked Under | 67c | 44$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.52 | 38 | 60.5%23 W · 15 L | +3.6wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9028…8608backed Under | 72c | 29.46$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.16 | 580 | 61.9%359 W · 221 L | +22.5wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Under | 74c | 26.38$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.91 | 852 | 60.9%519 W · 333 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Under | 76c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 275 | 54.9%151 W · 124 L | +7.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49ec…9175backed Over | 70c | 21.49$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.33per pick | 66cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x29d4…5d18backed Under | 75c | 15.43$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.83 | 56 | 67.9%38 W · 18 L | +3.3wins | +0.06per pick | 62cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x237f…e76ebacked Under | 75c | 14.52$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.63 | 82 | 56.1%46 W · 36 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2fb9…c170backed Under | 80c | 12.52$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 118 | 60.2%71 W · 47 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 20 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Rīga FC vs. FK Vardar Skopje: O/U 4.5this page
- Rīga FC vs. FK Vardar Skopje: 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
- Rīga FC vs. FK Vardar Skopje: 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
- Rīga FC vs. FK Vardar Skopje: 1st Half O/U 2.5Under won
- Rīga FC vs. FK Vardar Skopje: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Rīga FC vs. FK Vardar Skopje: Both Teams to Score in First HalfNo won
- Rīga FC vs. FK Vardar Skopje: FK Vardar Skopje 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
- Rīga FC vs. FK Vardar Skopje: FK Vardar Skopje O/U 0.5Over won
- Rīga FC vs. FK Vardar Skopje: FK Vardar Skopje O/U 1.5Over won
- Rīga FC vs. FK Vardar Skopje: O/U 0.5Over won
- Rīga FC vs. FK Vardar Skopje: O/U 1.5Over won
- Rīga FC vs. FK Vardar Skopje: O/U 2.5Over won
- Rīga FC vs. FK Vardar Skopje: O/U 3.5Under won
- Rīga FC vs. FK Vardar Skopje: O/U 5.5Under won
- Rīga FC vs. FK Vardar Skopje: Rīga FC O/U 2.5Under won
- Rīga FC vs. FK Vardar Skopje: Team to AdvanceRīga FC won
- Spread: FK Vardar Skopje (-1.5)Rīga FC won
- Spread: FK Vardar Skopje (-2.5)Rīga FC won
- Spread: Rīga FC (-1.5)FK Vardar Skopje won
- Spread: Rīga FC (-2.5)FK Vardar Skopje won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.