Europa Conference League · resolved market
Rīga FC vs. FK Vardar Skopje: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfa75816533c1c27cb07a2e00ae73ebf251b6b6ce65598aafce5a058a0fedb4a3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $34,972
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $35,618
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,972 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 74 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x122b…ac59backed Under | 47c | 11,696$5,440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,440.38 | 79 | 36.7%29 W · 50 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +41.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 56c | 8,197$4,613 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,583.59 | 2,990 | 42.5%1,270 W · 1,720 L | +9.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56f4…9ec5backed Under | 44c | 4,144$1,803 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,803.37 | 146 | 37.7%55 W · 91 L | -5.1wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7203…795abacked Over | 50c | 4,000$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,999.98 | 76 | 77.6%59 W · 17 L | +13.5wins | +0.18per pick | 60cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Under | 35c | 3,177$1,098 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,097.71 | 2,473 | 33.9%839 W · 1,634 L | -95.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -25%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Over | 57c | 1,920$1,091 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$828.46 | 769 | 41.9%322 W · 447 L | -8.2wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 56c | 1,429$807 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$621.71 | 1,604 | 38.9%624 W · 980 L | -17.7wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd93…56c0backed Over | 50c | 1,417$711 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$705.85 | 116 | 74.1%86 W · 30 L | +18.9wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x61d4…3593backed Under | 35c | 1,395$483 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$483.11 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad5…62ffbacked Over | 49c | 1,207$593 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$614.05 | 314 | 30.3%95 W · 219 L | -15.9wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Over | 55c | 931.31$508 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$423.56 | 558 | 45%251 W · 307 L | +2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 47c | 722.88$337 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$336.74 | 3,726 | 47%1,750 W · 1,976 L | +20.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x882c…5d07backed Under | 36c | 607.36$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.15 | 351 | 46.2%162 W · 189 L | -11.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x789c…0d10backed Under | 52c | 591.54$309 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$309.34 | 299 | 59.5%178 W · 121 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 10c | 475.81$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.61 | 814 | 40.5%330 W · 484 L | -21.9wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x47c5…46c3backed Under | 26c | 384.62$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 50 | 30%15 W · 35 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2d67…3667backed Over | 61c | 326.45$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.41 | 318 | 56%178 W · 140 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Under | 35c | 311.29$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.42 | 969 | 47.5%460 W · 509 L | +13.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 59c | 301.24$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123 | 568 | 49.6%282 W · 286 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Under | 11c | 286.41$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.83 | 973 | 46%448 W · 525 L | -4.7wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x800a…0b4dbacked Over | 67c | 281.1$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.76 | 43 | 41.9%18 W · 25 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 5c | 266.42$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.76 | 453 | 48.3%219 W · 234 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b6e…f544backed Over | 71c | 254.56$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.32 | 293 | 37.9%111 W · 182 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Over | 66c | 229.6$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.2 | 181 | 45.9%83 W · 98 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb0b…3790backed Under | 7c | 193$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.51 | 90 | 21.1%19 W · 71 L | +8.7wins | +0.10per pick | 11cpaid | +71.2%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x961c…9d72backed Under | 13c | 172.84$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.35 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Over | 69c | 151.11$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.07 | 1,033 | 46.1%476 W · 557 L | -3.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa178…11a2backed Over | 70c | 140.46$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.14 | 174 | 47.7%83 W · 91 L | -6.6wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6102…1913backed Over | 76c | 136.07$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.97 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 68cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ec5…fd53backed Over | 54c | 129.9$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.38 | 54 | 40.7%22 W · 32 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e7…3335backed Over | 77c | 129.87$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.87 | 81 | 65.4%53 W · 28 L | -3.5wins | -0.04per pick | 70cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfff3…e2c5backed Under | 51c | 127.43$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.99 | 46 | 45.7%21 W · 25 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9028…8608backed Under | 48c | 120.21$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.13 | 580 | 61.9%359 W · 221 L | +22.5wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd87e…36fabacked Under | 37c | 113.51$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -2.9wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e0…7eecbacked Over | 60c | 108.5$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.87 | 198 | 48%95 W · 103 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Under | 48c | 106.61$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.2 | 852 | 60.9%519 W · 333 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f34…ed6abacked Over | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 43 | 48.8%21 W · 22 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4060…e63cbacked Over | 67c | 100$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1218…511dbacked Over | 66c | 95.01$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.97 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | +4.6wins | +0.14per pick | 33cpaid | +69.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7c31…5380backed Over | 67c | 93.37$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.81 | 36 | 61.1%22 W · 14 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fa1…bf73backed Over | 60c | 80$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 85 | 51.8%44 W · 41 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f39…311abacked Over | 47c | 79.2$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.98 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +2.5wins | +0.17per pick | 43cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3486…49eebacked Over | 65c | 76.92$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.92 | 274 | 37.2%102 W · 172 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1372…4ce0backed Over | 65c | 76.92$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.92 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc464…5139backed Over | 65c | 76.92$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.92 | 44 | 38.6%17 W · 27 L | -5.4wins | -0.12per pick | 51cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2aa1…dba8backed Over | 66c | 75.38$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.82 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | -2.6wins | -0.07per pick | 56cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffd…7821backed Under | 33c | 64.92$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.42 | 85 | 50.6%43 W · 42 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xddb6…b9b3backed Under | 41c | 63.64$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.3 | 334 | 46.7%156 W · 178 L | -14.5wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 33c | 52.37$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.28 | 2,167 | 37.6%815 W · 1,352 L | +5.7wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Over | 60c | 52.18$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.8 | 370 | 46.5%172 W · 198 L | +10.8wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | 0%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf51…8bfabacked Under | 48c | 51.27$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.79 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50e5…e39fbacked Over | 66c | 51$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.14 | 535 | 64.7%346 W · 189 L | +29.1wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ee…9e81backed Under | 32c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 112 | 60.7%68 W · 44 L | +8.2wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1a59…a57ebacked Over | 51c | 48$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.76 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +82.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x62d5…bc0cbacked Over | 64c | 46.88$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.88 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x22f8…3925backed Under | 56c | 44.64$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8543…ff1bbacked Over | 68c | 43.16$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.79 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef18…4d70backed Over | 55c | 42.6$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.34 | 178 | 55.6%99 W · 79 L | +14.6wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x29d4…5d18backed Under | 53c | 41.03$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.58 | 56 | 67.9%38 W · 18 L | +3.3wins | +0.06per pick | 62cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x47c9…2038backed Under | 47c | 40.85$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 52 | 36.5%19 W · 33 L | -4.0wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x425e…ecfabacked Over | 45c | 39.58$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.58 | 49 | 53.1%26 W · 23 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bf…60f8backed Under | 32c | 37.82$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.98 | 393 | 57.5%226 W · 167 L | +17.0wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x775d…6bebbacked Under | 37c | 34.98$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.93 | 278 | 46.4%129 W · 149 L | -12.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -19%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe84f…b777backed Under | 46c | 34.41$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.94 | 191 | 63.4%121 W · 70 L | +10.5wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd852…6267backed Under | 36c | 30.56$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 34cpaid | -31%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa42f…b629backed Over | 57c | 30.14$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.96 | 47 | 63.8%30 W · 17 L | +11.0wins | +0.23per pick | 40cpaid | +86.3%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xfdae…6ad2backed Over | 67c | 29.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.85 | 206 | 60.2%124 W · 82 L | -15.2wins | -0.07per pick | 68cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 47c | 28.73$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 384 | 53.1%204 W · 180 L | +11.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Over | 75c | 27.9$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.97 | 2,333 | 41.7%972 W · 1,361 L | +25.5wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1399…48c8backed Over | 50c | 27.7$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.85 | 155 | 62.6%97 W · 58 L | +22.9wins | +0.15per pick | 48cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x4732…f40dbacked Over | 61c | 27$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.65 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91e7…6716backed Under | 41c | 25.05$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.27 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +1.9wins | +0.12per pick | 57cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x321c…18ddbacked Over | 65c | 23.08$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.08 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd60c…2b06backed Over | 71c | 22.45$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.51 | 179 | 58.1%104 W · 75 L | +17.0wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 20 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Rīga FC vs. FK Vardar Skopje: O/U 2.5this page
- Rīga FC vs. FK Vardar Skopje: 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
- Rīga FC vs. FK Vardar Skopje: 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
- Rīga FC vs. FK Vardar Skopje: 1st Half O/U 2.5Under won
- Rīga FC vs. FK Vardar Skopje: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Rīga FC vs. FK Vardar Skopje: Both Teams to Score in First HalfNo won
- Rīga FC vs. FK Vardar Skopje: FK Vardar Skopje 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
- Rīga FC vs. FK Vardar Skopje: FK Vardar Skopje O/U 0.5Over won
- Rīga FC vs. FK Vardar Skopje: FK Vardar Skopje O/U 1.5Over won
- Rīga FC vs. FK Vardar Skopje: O/U 0.5Over won
- Rīga FC vs. FK Vardar Skopje: O/U 1.5Over won
- Rīga FC vs. FK Vardar Skopje: O/U 3.5Under won
- Rīga FC vs. FK Vardar Skopje: O/U 4.5Under won
- Rīga FC vs. FK Vardar Skopje: O/U 5.5Under won
- Rīga FC vs. FK Vardar Skopje: Rīga FC O/U 2.5Under won
- Rīga FC vs. FK Vardar Skopje: Team to AdvanceRīga FC won
- Spread: FK Vardar Skopje (-1.5)Rīga FC won
- Spread: FK Vardar Skopje (-2.5)Rīga FC won
- Spread: Rīga FC (-1.5)FK Vardar Skopje won
- Spread: Rīga FC (-2.5)FK Vardar Skopje won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.