Europa Conference League · resolved market
Rīga FC vs. FK Vardar Skopje: Team to Advance
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf5f330f160724406e0af1a34202c456bf6a4f7be9b7520b43aca4c6c6ac7f411
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Rīga FCof Rīga FC, FK Vardar Skopje
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $36,643
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $48,356
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $36,643 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9709…52abbacked Rīga FC | 72c | 6,224$4,480 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,743.91 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x775d…6bebbacked FK Vardar Skopje | 33c | 3,159$1,036 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,035.99 | 278 | 46.4%129 W · 149 L | -12.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -19%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x629d…756cbacked FK Vardar Skopje | 33c | 2,759$921 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$920.91 | 239 | 50.2%120 W · 119 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddb6…b9b3backed FK Vardar Skopje | 22c | 2,462$540 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$539.94 | 334 | 46.7%156 W · 178 L | -14.5wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf647…0ccbbacked Rīga FC | 73c | 1,445$1,048 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$397.17 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.22per pick | 53cpaid | +46.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Rīga FC | 52c | 1,353$709 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$643.65 | 639 | 57.1%365 W · 274 L | +35.0wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfff3…e2c5backed Rīga FC | 57c | 1,150$655 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$494.81 | 47 | 44.7%21 W · 26 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x64e9…eb4cbacked FK Vardar Skopje | 9c | 1,015$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.56 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cfe…e4debacked FK Vardar Skopje | 10c | 842$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.84 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -78.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf30a…61fbbacked FK Vardar Skopje | 47c | 757.8$359 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$359.23 | 52 | 36.5%19 W · 33 L | -4.4wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed FK Vardar Skopje | 8c | 590.05$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.36 | 167 | 46.7%78 W · 89 L | +5.6wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked FK Vardar Skopje | 6c | 570.26$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.55 | 371 | 46.4%172 W · 199 L | +10.7wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a59…a57ebacked FK Vardar Skopje | 45c | 443.83$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.61 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +82.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked FK Vardar Skopje | 21c | 384.87$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.83 | 785 | 44.8%352 W · 433 L | +13.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x55ab…4f88backed FK Vardar Skopje | 17c | 357.31$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.57 | 63 | 33.3%21 W · 42 L | -7.2wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e0…7eecbacked FK Vardar Skopje | 34c | 290.55$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.16 | 198 | 48%95 W · 103 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13f7…85d5backed FK Vardar Skopje | 7c | 232$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.24 | 264 | 17.8%47 W · 217 L | +13.3wins | +0.05per pick | 13cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0eca…c56abacked FK Vardar Skopje | 46c | 203.99$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.07 | 46 | 54.3%25 W · 21 L | +3.0wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7bbb…ad2ebacked FK Vardar Skopje | 9c | 200$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x78ae…143abacked FK Vardar Skopje | 7c | 187.29$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.11 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e52…5535backed FK Vardar Skopje | 8c | 177.69$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.46 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1218…511dbacked FK Vardar Skopje | 17c | 176.73$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.88 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | +4.6wins | +0.14per pick | 33cpaid | +69.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8944…da4bbacked Rīga FC | 75c | 158.55$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.18 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | -2.6wins | -0.10per pick | 39cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6701…d7d2backed Rīga FC | 53c | 134$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.51 | 57 | 47.4%27 W · 30 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…bf20backed FK Vardar Skopje | 20c | 125$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 39 | 17.9%7 W · 32 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f5f…f7aebacked FK Vardar Skopje | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 18cpaid | +73.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d16…e22fbacked FK Vardar Skopje | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd629…1e72backed Rīga FC | 80c | 119.99$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.4 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14f3…0796backed Rīga FC | 60c | 114.68$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.29 | 53 | 50.9%27 W · 26 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4155…fa41backed FK Vardar Skopje | 43c | 105.8$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.9 | 78 | 67.9%53 W · 25 L | +6.8wins | +0.09per pick | 59cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6770…c3bdbacked FK Vardar Skopje | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 59 | 33.9%20 W · 39 L | -8.6wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3f34…ed6abacked FK Vardar Skopje | 44c | 100$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 43 | 48.8%21 W · 22 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1a7…ace4backed FK Vardar Skopje | 43c | 90$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 170 | 59.4%101 W · 69 L | +8.4wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked Rīga FC | 70c | 81.63$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.16 | 28 | 64.3%18 W · 10 L | +2.0wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75fa…f90ebacked Rīga FC | 54c | 68.28$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.41 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbe6…4a1bbacked Rīga FC | 51c | 42.11$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.77 | 39 | 56.4%22 W · 17 L | +10.1wins | +0.26per pick | 31cpaid | +330.1%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xb9c1…1562backed FK Vardar Skopje | 62c | 40.1$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e10…28d3backed Rīga FC | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47c9…2038backed Rīga FC | 54c | 35.65$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.4 | 52 | 36.5%19 W · 33 L | -4.0wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb305…a400backed FK Vardar Skopje | 50c | 32$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 65 | 43.1%28 W · 37 L | -5.8wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -20%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x49ec…9175backed FK Vardar Skopje | 50c | 30.19$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.33per pick | 66cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6312…f94ebacked Rīga FC | 54c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -2.6wins | -0.29per pick | 40cpaid | -79.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe0…cc67backed Rīga FC | 50c | 27$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.46 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f39…e279backed Rīga FC | 59c | 25.1$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.23 | 51 | 58.8%30 W · 21 L | +3.1wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed FK Vardar Skopje | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 179 | 41.9%75 W · 104 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x19e5…dd71backed Rīga FC | 55c | 19.74$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.97 | 33 | 33.3%11 W · 22 L | -5.8wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed Rīga FC | 74c | 14.01$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.64 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 20 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Rīga FC vs. FK Vardar Skopje: Team to Advancethis page
- Rīga FC vs. FK Vardar Skopje: 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
- Rīga FC vs. FK Vardar Skopje: 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
- Rīga FC vs. FK Vardar Skopje: 1st Half O/U 2.5Under won
- Rīga FC vs. FK Vardar Skopje: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Rīga FC vs. FK Vardar Skopje: Both Teams to Score in First HalfNo won
- Rīga FC vs. FK Vardar Skopje: FK Vardar Skopje 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
- Rīga FC vs. FK Vardar Skopje: FK Vardar Skopje O/U 0.5Over won
- Rīga FC vs. FK Vardar Skopje: FK Vardar Skopje O/U 1.5Over won
- Rīga FC vs. FK Vardar Skopje: O/U 0.5Over won
- Rīga FC vs. FK Vardar Skopje: O/U 1.5Over won
- Rīga FC vs. FK Vardar Skopje: O/U 2.5Over won
- Rīga FC vs. FK Vardar Skopje: O/U 3.5Under won
- Rīga FC vs. FK Vardar Skopje: O/U 4.5Under won
- Rīga FC vs. FK Vardar Skopje: O/U 5.5Under won
- Rīga FC vs. FK Vardar Skopje: Rīga FC O/U 2.5Under won
- Spread: FK Vardar Skopje (-1.5)Rīga FC won
- Spread: FK Vardar Skopje (-2.5)Rīga FC won
- Spread: Rīga FC (-1.5)FK Vardar Skopje won
- Spread: Rīga FC (-2.5)FK Vardar Skopje won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.