Europa Conference League · resolved market
Rīga FC vs. FK Vardar Skopje: 1st Half O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x08e259147fb16cd3b5a2ea9925f593ca51d724a2fd1d83cbabb0836b51218535
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,658
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,237
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,658 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x61d4…3593backed Under | 53c | 428.25$226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.6 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2968…1e6ebacked Under | 56c | 412.33$232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.68 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.17per pick | 25cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 56c | 386.31$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.09 | 2,990 | 42.5%1,270 W · 1,720 L | +9.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Over | 44c | 336.93$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.66 | 783 | 44.8%351 W · 432 L | +13.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03c9…d8c1backed Over | 42c | 331.47$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.73 | 37 | 67.6%25 W · 12 L | +6.8wins | +0.19per pick | 49cpaid | +41.7%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e7…3335backed Over | 75c | 266.97$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 81 | 65.4%53 W · 28 L | -3.5wins | -0.04per pick | 70cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd36…6674backed Over | 45c | 207.67$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.45 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 33c | 186.57$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125 | 2,167 | 37.6%815 W · 1,352 L | +5.7wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa178…11a2backed Over | 67c | 186.57$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 174 | 47.7%83 W · 91 L | -6.6wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x98bd…8a55backed Over | 56c | 178.57$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -3.8wins | -0.14per pick | 53cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5b6e…f544backed Under | 57c | 174.32$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.32 | 293 | 37.9%111 W · 182 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Under | 55c | 150$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.5 | 778 | 55%428 W · 350 L | +23.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Under | 38c | 141$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.76 | 2,333 | 41.7%972 W · 1,361 L | +25.5wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x976a…e8ecbacked Over | 43c | 115.24$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.42 | 182 | 44.5%81 W · 101 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6d2…d67bbacked Under | 65c | 99.9$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.96 | 123 | 55.3%68 W · 55 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f34…ed6abacked Over | 66c | 96$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.36 | 43 | 48.8%21 W · 22 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55ab…4f88backed Over | 44c | 92.2$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.2 | 63 | 33.3%21 W · 42 L | -7.2wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6770…c3bdbacked Under | 57c | 91$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.13 | 59 | 33.9%20 W · 39 L | -8.6wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x42a1…a8e9backed Under | 57c | 91$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.13 | 60 | 35%21 W · 39 L | -6.5wins | -0.11per pick | 46cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Over | 51c | 80.18$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.24 | 359 | 44.8%161 W · 198 L | -7.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ee…9e81backed Over | 53c | 74.23$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.69 | 112 | 60.7%68 W · 44 L | +8.2wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 59c | 52.46$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.63 | 3,726 | 47%1,750 W · 1,976 L | +20.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66bf…07e8backed Over | 50c | 52.19$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 102 | 38.2%39 W · 63 L | -5.7wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xffac…d469backed Over | 39c | 49.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 45 | 51.1%23 W · 22 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 55c | 48$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.6 | 1,573 | 55.7%876 W · 697 L | +25.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14e7…a32cbacked Over | 56c | 47$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.23 | 38 | 60.5%23 W · 15 L | +3.6wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Over | 58c | 38.67$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.57 | 370 | 46.5%172 W · 198 L | +10.8wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | 0%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Over | 44c | 35.06$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.41 | 275 | 54.9%151 W · 124 L | +7.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d67…3667backed Under | 67c | 28.67$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.58 | 318 | 56%178 W · 140 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 20 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Rīga FC vs. FK Vardar Skopje: 1st Half O/U 1.5this page
- Rīga FC vs. FK Vardar Skopje: 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
- Rīga FC vs. FK Vardar Skopje: 1st Half O/U 2.5Under won
- Rīga FC vs. FK Vardar Skopje: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Rīga FC vs. FK Vardar Skopje: Both Teams to Score in First HalfNo won
- Rīga FC vs. FK Vardar Skopje: FK Vardar Skopje 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
- Rīga FC vs. FK Vardar Skopje: FK Vardar Skopje O/U 0.5Over won
- Rīga FC vs. FK Vardar Skopje: FK Vardar Skopje O/U 1.5Over won
- Rīga FC vs. FK Vardar Skopje: O/U 0.5Over won
- Rīga FC vs. FK Vardar Skopje: O/U 1.5Over won
- Rīga FC vs. FK Vardar Skopje: O/U 2.5Over won
- Rīga FC vs. FK Vardar Skopje: O/U 3.5Under won
- Rīga FC vs. FK Vardar Skopje: O/U 4.5Under won
- Rīga FC vs. FK Vardar Skopje: O/U 5.5Under won
- Rīga FC vs. FK Vardar Skopje: Rīga FC O/U 2.5Under won
- Rīga FC vs. FK Vardar Skopje: Team to AdvanceRīga FC won
- Spread: FK Vardar Skopje (-1.5)Rīga FC won
- Spread: FK Vardar Skopje (-2.5)Rīga FC won
- Spread: Rīga FC (-1.5)FK Vardar Skopje won
- Spread: Rīga FC (-2.5)FK Vardar Skopje won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.