Europa Conference League · resolved market
Spread: Rīga FC (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3ccb6a96c16fce90259c1ba8bd37d1aff5eefff4b7712c19d520015f1e1a3aca
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- FK Vardar Skopjeof Rīga FC, FK Vardar Skopje
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,387
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,456
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,387 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Rīga FC | 19c | 2,240$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$419.77 | 1,604 | 38.9%624 W · 980 L | -17.7wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed FK Vardar Skopje | 77c | 1,594$1,220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$373.82 | 3,726 | 47%1,750 W · 1,976 L | +20.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Rīga FC | 42c | 950.76$398 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$398.21 | 2,473 | 33.9%839 W · 1,634 L | -95.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -25%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Rīga FC | 47c | 810$381 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$380.7 | 2,990 | 42.5%1,270 W · 1,720 L | +9.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed FK Vardar Skopje | 53c | 622.88$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$292.75 | 661 | 50.5%334 W · 327 L | +22.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked FK Vardar Skopje | 53c | 565.94$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265.87 | 973 | 46%448 W · 525 L | -4.7wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad5…62ffbacked Rīga FC | 23c | 504.04$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.71 | 314 | 30.3%95 W · 219 L | -15.9wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed FK Vardar Skopje | 53c | 396.7$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.45 | 2,333 | 41.7%972 W · 1,361 L | +25.5wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked FK Vardar Skopje | 66c | 285.09$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.72 | 783 | 44.8%351 W · 432 L | +13.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Rīga FC | 47c | 227.95$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.95 | 778 | 55%428 W · 350 L | +23.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf636…5465backed FK Vardar Skopje | 54c | 222.77$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.47 | 55 | 63.6%35 W · 20 L | +8.4wins | +0.15per pick | 48cpaid | +36%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xddb6…b9b3backed FK Vardar Skopje | 80c | 218.08$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.68 | 334 | 46.7%156 W · 178 L | -14.5wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x775d…6bebbacked FK Vardar Skopje | 79c | 155.38$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.91 | 278 | 46.4%129 W · 149 L | -12.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -19%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x629d…756cbacked FK Vardar Skopje | 73c | 133.61$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.49 | 239 | 50.2%120 W · 119 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b6e…f544backed Rīga FC | 24c | 131.57$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.37 | 293 | 37.9%111 W · 182 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe368…e9edbacked Rīga FC | 25c | 115.08$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.77 | 66 | 31.8%21 W · 45 L | -3.4wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked FK Vardar Skopje | 53c | 111.87$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.81 | 694 | 48.8%339 W · 355 L | +18.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x162c…6c47backed Rīga FC | 47c | 103.57$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.68 | 101 | 57.4%58 W · 43 L | +7.6wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6770…c3bdbacked Rīga FC | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 59 | 33.9%20 W · 39 L | -8.6wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x42a1…a8e9backed Rīga FC | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 60 | 35%21 W · 39 L | -6.5wins | -0.11per pick | 46cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3a36…79d3backed FK Vardar Skopje | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | +3.5wins | +0.14per pick | 50cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0363…d67abacked Rīga FC | 28c | 93.36$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.14 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -67.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8543…ff1bbacked FK Vardar Skopje | 79c | 91.77$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.98 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked FK Vardar Skopje | 66c | 83$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.22 | 359 | 44.8%161 W · 198 L | -7.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed FK Vardar Skopje | 52c | 81.65$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.8 | 655 | 49.8%326 W · 329 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d67…3667backed Rīga FC | 48c | 78.79$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.82 | 318 | 56%178 W · 140 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Rīga FC | 46c | 78.17$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.96 | 793 | 54.2%430 W · 363 L | +17.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9028…8608backed FK Vardar Skopje | 77c | 71.9$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.36 | 580 | 61.9%359 W · 221 L | +22.5wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Rīga FC | 27c | 65.71$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.74 | 568 | 49.6%282 W · 286 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Rīga FC | 47c | 62.81$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.52 | 1,114 | 35.8%399 W · 715 L | -13.0wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe84f…b777backed FK Vardar Skopje | 80c | 62.35$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.48 | 191 | 63.4%121 W · 70 L | +10.5wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bf…60f8backed Rīga FC | 46c | 47.17$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.7 | 393 | 57.5%226 W · 167 L | +17.0wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0464…67dabacked FK Vardar Skopje | 53c | 44.72$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.02 | 363 | 56.5%205 W · 158 L | +17.1wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa597…79d7backed FK Vardar Skopje | 62c | 32.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.26 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.13per pick | 57cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked FK Vardar Skopje | 66c | 32$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.88 | 453 | 48.3%219 W · 234 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4732…f40dbacked Rīga FC | 48c | 31.51$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.13 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2fcb…78cfbacked FK Vardar Skopje | 53c | 28.02$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.17 | 42 | 54.8%23 W · 19 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2396…9485backed FK Vardar Skopje | 53c | 27.44$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.87 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed FK Vardar Skopje | 66c | 25.42$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.64 | 814 | 40.5%330 W · 484 L | -21.9wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x193b…f6ecbacked Rīga FC | 47c | 23.64$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.11 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.26per pick | 51cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Rīga FC | 48c | 22.3$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.7 | 555 | 45.8%254 W · 301 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e0…7eecbacked FK Vardar Skopje | 72c | 20.47$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.65 | 198 | 48%95 W · 103 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2fb9…c170backed FK Vardar Skopje | 80c | 12.52$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 118 | 60.2%71 W · 47 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 20 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Rīga FC (-1.5)this page
- Rīga FC vs. FK Vardar Skopje: 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
- Rīga FC vs. FK Vardar Skopje: 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
- Rīga FC vs. FK Vardar Skopje: 1st Half O/U 2.5Under won
- Rīga FC vs. FK Vardar Skopje: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Rīga FC vs. FK Vardar Skopje: Both Teams to Score in First HalfNo won
- Rīga FC vs. FK Vardar Skopje: FK Vardar Skopje 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
- Rīga FC vs. FK Vardar Skopje: FK Vardar Skopje O/U 0.5Over won
- Rīga FC vs. FK Vardar Skopje: FK Vardar Skopje O/U 1.5Over won
- Rīga FC vs. FK Vardar Skopje: O/U 0.5Over won
- Rīga FC vs. FK Vardar Skopje: O/U 1.5Over won
- Rīga FC vs. FK Vardar Skopje: O/U 2.5Over won
- Rīga FC vs. FK Vardar Skopje: O/U 3.5Under won
- Rīga FC vs. FK Vardar Skopje: O/U 4.5Under won
- Rīga FC vs. FK Vardar Skopje: O/U 5.5Under won
- Rīga FC vs. FK Vardar Skopje: Rīga FC O/U 2.5Under won
- Rīga FC vs. FK Vardar Skopje: Team to AdvanceRīga FC won
- Spread: FK Vardar Skopje (-1.5)Rīga FC won
- Spread: FK Vardar Skopje (-2.5)Rīga FC won
- Spread: Rīga FC (-2.5)FK Vardar Skopje won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.