MLB · resolved market
Cleveland Guardians vs. Houston Astros: O/U 6.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x09ba524845d47cfc89cec59a11aa70e62ff00c32a93621bae35eea1f14a5a6dc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,848
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,816
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,848 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1d3b…583bbacked Over | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde49…fe85backed Over | 54c | 10,000$5,398 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,398.22 | 490 | 51%250 W · 240 L | -10.8wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 46c | 5,455$2,504 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,951.16 | 8,192 | 46.2%3,787 W · 4,405 L | +38.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 47c | 2,213$1,039 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,174.02 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 36c | 2,009$719 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,289.75 | 11,519 | 52.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L | +213.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Under | 42c | 430.98$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$249.87 | 8,594 | 52.6%4,521 W · 4,073 L | +508.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 49c | 230.33$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.72 | 6,123 | 55.4%3,390 W · 2,733 L | +346.0wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Over | 12c | 160$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.3 | 1,928 | 17.2%331 W · 1,597 L | -320.9wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x6815…9edbbacked Over | 50c | 120.88$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.44 | 447 | 44.1%197 W · 250 L | -6.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd17a…ffcabacked Under | 58c | 120.78$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.78 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Over | 50c | 108.79$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.4 | 2,588 | 61.5%1,591 W · 997 L | +72.3wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x18a4…3a31backed Under | 46c | 105.17$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.08 | 2,149 | 50.2%1,079 W · 1,070 L | +28.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fe3…a9f7backed Under | 51c | 98.36$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.36 | 60 | 53.3%32 W · 28 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 49c | 83.27$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.36 | 10,979 | 51.6%5,660 W · 5,319 L | +139.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07b1…b027backed Over | 48c | 82.79$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.69 | 209 | 44%92 W · 117 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7916…cb13backed Under | 46c | 72.47$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.29 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +41.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3c2…5509backed Under | 49c | 66.36$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.1 | 221 | 54.3%120 W · 101 L | +9.5wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8890…cefbbacked Over | 71c | 66.32$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.41 | 509 | 62.9%320 W · 189 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Over | 53c | 52.15$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.64 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f4…6fa9backed Under | 43c | 52.11$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.63 | 1,777 | 58.4%1,037 W · 740 L | +91.8wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b5…c8f8backed Over | 47c | 49.55$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.42 | 1,708 | 49.9%852 W · 856 L | -17.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3529…fb0cbacked Over | 27c | 45$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.25 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed Under | 37c | 31.76$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.01 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28f7…404dbacked Over | 43c | 29.93$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 476 | 46.2%220 W · 256 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 50c | 26.25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.13 | 4,515 | 48.8%2,205 W · 2,310 L | -46.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8db0…5b69backed Over | 64c | 23.08$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.77 | 38 | 34.2%13 W · 25 L | -5.7wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -38%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f9…5273backed Under | 54c | 22.7$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.44 | 536 | 44.6%239 W · 297 L | -11.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9555…889abacked Over | 57c | 21.05$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1,001 | 57.3%574 W · 427 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Over | 67c | 15.15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 486 | 53.7%261 W · 225 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Houston Astros: O/U 6.5this page
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Houston AstrosHouston Astros won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Houston Astros: O/U 5.5Under won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Houston Astros: O/U 7.5Under won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Houston Astros: O/U 8.5Under won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Houston Astros: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5)Houston Astros won
- Spread: Houston Astros (-1.5)Cleveland Guardians won
- Spread: Houston Astros (-2.5)Cleveland Guardians won
- Spread: Houston Astros (-3.5)Cleveland Guardians won
- Spread: Houston Astros (-4.5)Cleveland Guardians won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.