MLB · resolved market
Spread: Houston Astros (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x345a5ab8813e58fe1eb05c92d5d4fed27ee6bd655a36440bb29455c48f97a90a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Cleveland Guardiansof Houston Astros, Cleveland Guardians
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,648
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,639
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,648 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Houston Astros | 36c | 3,171$1,142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,141.91 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Cleveland Guardians | 64c | 2,840$1,812 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,027.54 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b94…b660backed Cleveland Guardians | 57c | 880.82$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$380.82 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Houston Astros | 38c | 701.48$267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$266.56 | 447 | 49.2%220 W · 227 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Cleveland Guardians | 62c | 446$277 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.48 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Houston Astros | 43c | 427.82$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.29 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e7a…2c0abacked Houston Astros | 38c | 184.21$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 122 | 57.4%70 W · 52 L | +4.3wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Cleveland Guardians | 62c | 184.21$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x63ec…3b76backed Cleveland Guardians | 62c | 161.29$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.29 | 107 | 50.5%54 W · 53 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec14…7fafbacked Houston Astros | 39c | 128.21$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 478 | 49%234 W · 244 L | +14.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Cleveland Guardians | 75c | 114$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.03 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Houston Astros | 17c | 108.39$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.41 | 4,169 | 50.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Cleveland Guardians | 61c | 98.21$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.3 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Houston Astros | 43c | 75$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.95 | 1,927 | 17.2%331 W · 1,596 L | -320.3wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Cleveland Guardians | 62c | 60$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.1 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Cleveland Guardians | 61c | 59.1$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.05 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Cleveland Guardians | 53c | 57.39$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.81 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd879…2f44backed Houston Astros | 36c | 55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 123 | 46.3%57 W · 66 L | +6.9wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda09…16debacked Houston Astros | 39c | 51.28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 48 | 54.2%26 W · 22 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29d8…e1b3backed Houston Astros | 39c | 51.28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 443 | 45.6%202 W · 241 L | -10.6wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36f4…0eb2backed Cleveland Guardians | 63c | 39.14$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.48 | 859 | 49.1%422 W · 437 L | -3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f4…6fa9backed Houston Astros | 38c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 1,777 | 58.4%1,037 W · 740 L | +91.8wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc622…8f86backed Cleveland Guardians | 62c | 24.19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.19 | 59 | 61%36 W · 23 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f14…ca5abacked Cleveland Guardians | 66c | 19$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.45 | 1,042 | 49.4%515 W · 527 L | +13.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1719…ec68backed Cleveland Guardians | 62c | 17$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.46 | 721 | 54.2%391 W · 330 L | +20.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +144.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Houston Astros (-1.5)this page
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Houston AstrosHouston Astros won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Houston Astros: O/U 5.5Under won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Houston Astros: O/U 6.5Under won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Houston Astros: O/U 7.5Under won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Houston Astros: O/U 8.5Under won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Houston Astros: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5)Houston Astros won
- Spread: Houston Astros (-2.5)Cleveland Guardians won
- Spread: Houston Astros (-3.5)Cleveland Guardians won
- Spread: Houston Astros (-4.5)Cleveland Guardians won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.