MLB · resolved market
Cleveland Guardians vs. Houston Astros: O/U 9.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3058cdfa16785f43998e8b4a2b6d536d6450dd8334e892233cad26c766adf91c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,952
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,998
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,952 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8a26…937ebacked Under | 60c | 20,000$12,100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,899.99 | 613 | 51.5%316 W · 297 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 39c | 7,261$2,848 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,847.57 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 40c | 6,991$2,794 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,794.21 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 39c | 3,884$1,496 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,495.98 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…8abdbacked Under | 59c | 547.89$323 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.63 | 680 | 53.2%362 W · 318 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 60c | 492.72$295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.83 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28e8…6080backed Over | 39c | 453.93$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.03 | 473 | 50.7%240 W · 233 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 41c | 432.02$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.13 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2fd6…d7babacked Over | 42c | 408.93$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.75 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -4.6wins | -0.20per pick | 50cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7677…37c0backed Under | 58c | 400$232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168 | 328 | 50%164 W · 164 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Over | 40c | 360.52$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.21 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 64c | 321.11$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.21 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f9…5273backed Over | 36c | 308.92$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.21 | 536 | 44.6%239 W · 297 L | -11.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc243…5e94backed Over | 39c | 278$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.42 | 121 | 43.8%53 W · 68 L | -4.9wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 61c | 192.3$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.07 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1a8…6764backed Over | 43c | 179.57$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.35 | 264 | 38.3%101 W · 163 L | -6.9wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca6…4b74backed Under | 61c | 150$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.5 | 449 | 49.2%221 W · 228 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad5…62ffbacked Over | 34c | 118.42$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.75 | 1,147 | 31.6%362 W · 785 L | -97.5wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8f14…ca5abacked Over | 40c | 115$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 1,042 | 49.4%515 W · 527 L | +13.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cad…92f0backed Over | 40c | 95$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 475 | 49.7%236 W · 239 L | +17.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x31e7…fe2abacked Over | 40c | 82.5$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 161 | 44.1%71 W · 90 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa4f…b174backed Over | 40c | 66.23$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.49 | 407 | 53.3%217 W · 190 L | +9.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa05a…4635backed Over | 42c | 62.01$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.12 | 830 | 53%440 W · 390 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05dd…305cbacked Over | 40c | 57.03$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.81 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56f6…cda7backed Over | 40c | 57.02$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.81 | 93 | 47.3%44 W · 49 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x000a…6cf7backed Over | 41c | 54.92$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.79 | 252 | 60.7%153 W · 99 L | +17.1wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked Over | 41c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 1,172 | 49.1%575 W · 597 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74f9…6024backed Over | 39c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 160 | 57.5%92 W · 68 L | +12.0wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x07b1…b027backed Under | 69c | 47.68$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.78 | 209 | 44%92 W · 117 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc85…aa54backed Over | 40c | 41.91$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.76 | 242 | 43%104 W · 138 L | -12.2wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed Over | 41c | 38.8$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.08 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 58c | 38.26$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.26 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39b2…157cbacked Over | 38c | 37.66$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.31 | 147 | 50.3%74 W · 73 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28f7…404dbacked Over | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 476 | 46.2%220 W · 256 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9176…d962backed Over | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 56 | 53.6%30 W · 26 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f4…6fa9backed Under | 61c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.75 | 1,777 | 58.4%1,037 W · 740 L | +91.8wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d08…6e9bbacked Over | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 46 | 39.1%18 W · 28 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Houston Astros: O/U 9.5this page
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Houston AstrosHouston Astros won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Houston Astros: O/U 5.5Under won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Houston Astros: O/U 6.5Under won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Houston Astros: O/U 7.5Under won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Houston Astros: O/U 8.5Under won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5)Houston Astros won
- Spread: Houston Astros (-1.5)Cleveland Guardians won
- Spread: Houston Astros (-2.5)Cleveland Guardians won
- Spread: Houston Astros (-3.5)Cleveland Guardians won
- Spread: Houston Astros (-4.5)Cleveland Guardians won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.