MLB · resolved market
Cleveland Guardians vs. Houston Astros: O/U 5.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5d3c71cbdde0fee98cfc6742e31e05ce18516e7442508e75cefa6cf498909e35
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,801
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,817
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,801 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 55c | 5,081$2,794 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,793.69 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Under | 46c | 5,046$2,300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,745.72 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 44c | 3,467$1,525 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,942.62 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 56c | 2,716$1,519 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,518.51 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 46c | 1,503$696 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$695.6 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Under | 47c | 1,064$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$563.82 | 2,583 | 61.4%1,587 W · 996 L | +70.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Over | 52c | 774$402 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$402.48 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Under | 51c | 352.99$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.55 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb7d8…a577backed Under | 75c | 300$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Over | 46c | 179.18$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.87 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0011…4cbabacked Over | 74c | 148.67$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.24 | 309 | 63.1%195 W · 114 L | -9.1wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad5…62ffbacked Over | 41c | 146.52$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.77 | 1,147 | 31.6%362 W · 785 L | -97.5wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8f14…ca5abacked Under | 48c | 140.99$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.83 | 1,042 | 49.4%515 W · 527 L | +13.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07b1…b027backed Over | 43c | 87.12$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.41 | 209 | 44%92 W · 117 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbd…d0dfbacked Over | 52c | 74.53$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.76 | 318 | 48.7%155 W · 163 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3529…fb0cbacked Over | 17c | 60$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa057…d092backed Under | 27c | 57.16$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.96 | 2,144 | 39.6%849 W · 1,295 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Over | 53c | 42.07$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.24 | 4,169 | 50.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa05a…4635backed Under | 48c | 42$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.68 | 830 | 53%440 W · 390 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed Under | 57c | 41.37$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.68 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9bbf…49c1backed Under | 45c | 38$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.9 | 183 | 47%86 W · 97 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x17d7…9e1ebacked Over | 46c | 31.92$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.68 | 1,000 | 58.8%588 W · 412 L | +26.0wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x982c…0d6ebacked Under | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 80 | 48.8%39 W · 41 L | -4.5wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Over | 55c | 29.97$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.36 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Over | 77c | 24.45$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.83 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04ed…0adfbacked Under | 52c | 22.66$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.79 | 246 | 57.3%141 W · 105 L | +5.9wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18a4…3a31backed Over | 56c | 20.91$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.72 | 2,147 | 50.2%1,078 W · 1,069 L | +27.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8890…cefbbacked Over | 74c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 509 | 62.9%320 W · 189 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9991…36b8backed Over | 72c | 14.39$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.36 | 260 | 63.8%166 W · 94 L | +7.9wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf766…9251backed Over | 79c | 13$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.27 | 1,464 | 63.5%929 W · 535 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Houston Astros: O/U 5.5this page
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Houston AstrosHouston Astros won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Houston Astros: O/U 6.5Under won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Houston Astros: O/U 7.5Under won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Houston Astros: O/U 8.5Under won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Houston Astros: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5)Houston Astros won
- Spread: Houston Astros (-1.5)Cleveland Guardians won
- Spread: Houston Astros (-2.5)Cleveland Guardians won
- Spread: Houston Astros (-3.5)Cleveland Guardians won
- Spread: Houston Astros (-4.5)Cleveland Guardians won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.