MLB · resolved market
Cleveland Guardians vs. Houston Astros: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9fc09e2a8b9d5f90cf8cc81f2dee40226b1834887f2c44968174131888700181
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $51,379
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $51,371
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $51,379 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 69 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa710…23c4backed Under | 48c | 16,689$8,011 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,678.17 | 552 | 53.1%293 W · 259 L | +21.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b88…8f33backed Over | 52c | 15,000$7,800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,800 | 448 | 51.6%231 W · 217 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 53c | 13,780$7,340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,439.8 | 10,979 | 51.6%5,660 W · 5,319 L | +139.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3b…583bbacked Over | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde49…fe85backed Over | 48c | 9,927$4,745 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,745.15 | 490 | 51%250 W · 240 L | -10.8wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 43c | 3,724$1,616 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,615.69 | 8,192 | 46.2%3,787 W · 4,405 L | +38.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x595d…9ad0backed Over | 49c | 2,449$1,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,200 | 123 | 42.3%52 W · 71 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b4e…0232backed Under | 51c | 2,279$1,162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,116.87 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | -3.7wins | -0.12per pick | 51cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 25c | 1,014$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.33 | 9,819 | 46.4%4,557 W · 5,262 L | +39.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Over | 51c | 999.97$510 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$509.98 | 1,845 | 50.7%936 W · 909 L | -4.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 49c | 916.65$449 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$467.49 | 5,471 | 50.5%2,763 W · 2,708 L | +21.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Over | 51c | 850.9$434 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$433.96 | 3,509 | 51%1,789 W · 1,720 L | +53.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e77…8c33backed Under | 50c | 519$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$259.5 | 283 | 50.9%144 W · 139 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 76c | 481.9$367 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.64 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Over | 50c | 420$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 2,311 | 51%1,179 W · 1,132 L | +25.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9ea…b781backed Over | 51c | 295.01$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.46 | 575 | 51.7%297 W · 278 L | +5.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Under | 49c | 232.22$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.43 | 1,269 | 51.1%648 W · 621 L | +23.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Under | 63c | 228$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.11 | 8,594 | 52.6%4,521 W · 4,073 L | +508.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x18a4…3a31backed Over | 44c | 216$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.04 | 2,149 | 50.2%1,079 W · 1,070 L | +28.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Over | 27c | 210.91$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.82 | 4,187 | 50.2%2,102 W · 2,085 L | +94.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43d7…1c75backed Over | 52c | 200$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 217 | 48.4%105 W · 112 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb2e…7821backed Under | 51c | 200$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98 | 738 | 49.3%364 W · 374 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x87c7…d1b6backed Over | 52c | 200$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 204 | 55.4%113 W · 91 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd100…853dbacked Under | 49c | 197.71$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.83 | 541 | 52.1%282 W · 259 L | +12.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8508…c22fbacked Over | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1,000 | 52.4%524 W · 476 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa804…2a75backed Under | 49c | 174.08$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.78 | 291 | 47.1%137 W · 154 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5323…326abacked Over | 47c | 159.57$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 72 | 34.7%25 W · 47 L | -10.8wins | -0.15per pick | 50cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1fa8…0b19backed Under | 49c | 153.24$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.15 | 405 | 54.8%222 W · 183 L | +17.1wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x86ee…511fbacked Under | 49c | 153.06$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.06 | 243 | 50.6%123 W · 120 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2725…e7d1backed Over | 51c | 139.98$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.86 | 358 | 49.4%177 W · 181 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ed3…274cbacked Under | 49c | 134.25$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.47 | 600 | 49.3%296 W · 304 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad5…62ffbacked Over | 45c | 129.65$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.28 | 1,147 | 31.6%362 W · 785 L | -97.5wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 51c | 121$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.29 | 2,329 | 49.8%1,160 W · 1,169 L | +41.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Over | 51c | 120$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.6 | 2,413 | 49.9%1,205 W · 1,208 L | +22.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ad…b23ebacked Over | 53c | 100$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 1,279 | 51.2%655 W · 624 L | -19.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8482…3f7abacked Under | 51c | 100$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 1,062 | 49.2%523 W · 539 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52a0…ec9dbacked Under | 52c | 96.15$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.15 | 382 | 52.1%199 W · 183 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fb1…8436backed Over | 49c | 81.63$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 276 | 44.9%124 W · 152 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f36…905fbacked Over | 51c | 78$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.78 | 191 | 52.9%101 W · 90 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9ac…8de4backed Under | 49c | 75.41$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.46 | 185 | 51.4%95 W · 90 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b5…c8f8backed Over | 27c | 71.54$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.65 | 1,708 | 49.9%852 W · 856 L | -17.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 52c | 63.88$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.98 | 6,999 | 50.6%3,538 W · 3,461 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Over | 51c | 57$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.79 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x07b1…b027backed Under | 70c | 56.8$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 209 | 44%92 W · 117 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ddd…73b2backed Under | 49c | 56.2$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.66 | 328 | 46.6%153 W · 175 L | -13.2wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8098…5646backed Under | 49c | 50.39$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.7 | 515 | 55.7%287 W · 228 L | +19.5wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Under | 56c | 44.2$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.45 | 3,460 | 51.2%1,773 W · 1,687 L | +107.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd8ac…b73dbacked Under | 49c | 44.06$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.47 | 115 | 51.3%59 W · 56 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7677…37c0backed Under | 47c | 43.87$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.25 | 328 | 50%164 W · 164 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc798…a8e9backed Over | 49c | 43.79$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.46 | 106 | 49.1%52 W · 54 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x193a…2b55backed Under | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.82 | 234 | 55.1%129 W · 105 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5407…5bbdbacked Under | 50c | 40.1$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.1 | 778 | 36%280 W · 498 L | -17.2wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Over | 52c | 39.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.33 | 2,995 | 47.9%1,435 W · 1,560 L | +12.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa70f…a14fbacked Under | 51c | 38.45$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.84 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.17per pick | 49cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 48c | 38.07$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.19 | 11,519 | 52.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L | +213.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Over | 51c | 37.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.49 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20f8…f1a7backed Under | 53c | 37.13$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +2.2wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +35.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe246…dedcbacked Under | 49c | 35.43$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.07 | 267 | 53.9%144 W · 123 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x26dd…0249backed Under | 49c | 32.63$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.64 | 271 | 46.9%127 W · 144 L | -8.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -10%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4e8…ff03backed Under | 49c | 32.41$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.53 | 238 | 51.3%122 W · 116 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92ed…21dcbacked Under | 49c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.3 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…8abdbacked Under | 48c | 29.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.59 | 686 | 52.9%363 W · 323 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e6c…e09cbacked Under | 49c | 27$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.77 | 452 | 46.2%209 W · 243 L | -18.9wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -11%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x83ce…835cbacked Over | 51c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.75 | 507 | 48.7%247 W · 260 L | -17.2wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x829a…a748backed Under | 49c | 23.86$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.17 | 187 | 51.9%97 W · 90 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9aca…61fdbacked Over | 52c | 20.24$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.52 | 274 | 54.4%149 W · 125 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfae5…f940backed Over | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 816 | 51.8%423 W · 393 L | -15.3wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f9…5273backed Under | 61c | 19.23$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.56 | 536 | 44.6%239 W · 297 L | -11.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed Under | 71c | 16.83$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.94 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Houston Astros: O/U 8.5this page
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Houston AstrosHouston Astros won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Houston Astros: O/U 5.5Under won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Houston Astros: O/U 6.5Under won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Houston Astros: O/U 7.5Under won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Houston Astros: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5)Houston Astros won
- Spread: Houston Astros (-1.5)Cleveland Guardians won
- Spread: Houston Astros (-2.5)Cleveland Guardians won
- Spread: Houston Astros (-3.5)Cleveland Guardians won
- Spread: Houston Astros (-4.5)Cleveland Guardians won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.