South American Leagues · resolved market
Spread: CA River Plate (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x09cacb55e70f5cb968c3db3f1d9b55c8a83c2bae14439cee0e4593c10720ce3a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- CA Rosario Centralof CA River Plate, CA Rosario Central
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,729
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,817
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,729 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0346…52a5backed CA River Plate | 16c | 4,819$786 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$786.13 | 2,281 | 34.3%782 W · 1,499 L | -30.5wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed CA River Plate | 23c | 4,069$936 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$935.8 | 2,335 | 51.5%1,202 W · 1,133 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed CA River Plate | 13c | 2,645$354 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$353.73 | 1,290 | 42.8%552 W · 738 L | -2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x27f7…44b0backed CA Rosario Central | 77c | 1,463$1,129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$334.1 | 429 | 62.2%267 W · 162 L | +10.7wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed CA Rosario Central | 79c | 1,405$1,110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$295.05 | 2,514 | 39%980 W · 1,534 L | -32.2wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed CA River Plate | 21c | 1,250$262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262.49 | 347 | 47.6%165 W · 182 L | +17.7wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked CA River Plate | 23c | 530.41$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.44 | 1,231 | 53.9%663 W · 568 L | +12.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84d4…77a9backed CA Rosario Central | 79c | 386.38$305 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.63 | 331 | 52.6%174 W · 157 L | +8.3wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d67…3667backed CA Rosario Central | 79c | 370.73$294 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.63 | 464 | 49.6%230 W · 234 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed CA River Plate | 22c | 340.05$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.92 | 559 | 46%257 W · 302 L | -19.0wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed CA River Plate | 22c | 208.78$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.46 | 538 | 36.8%198 W · 340 L | -24.0wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed CA Rosario Central | 78c | 197$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.34 | 3,749 | 38.2%1,431 W · 2,318 L | -33.3wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed CA River Plate | 23c | 178.26$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 668 | 37.1%248 W · 420 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe84f…b777backed CA Rosario Central | 78c | 154.35$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.79 | 694 | 53.5%371 W · 323 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8859…89d6backed CA Rosario Central | 77c | 129.2$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.2 | 65 | 61.5%40 W · 25 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a86…0079backed CA River Plate | 22c | 90.9$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 65 | 43.1%28 W · 37 L | +3.0wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x789c…0d10backed CA Rosario Central | 79c | 75.84$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.93 | 552 | 50.2%277 W · 275 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b6e…f544backed CA Rosario Central | 77c | 64.94$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.94 | 646 | 33.1%214 W · 432 L | -24.8wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bf…60f8backed CA Rosario Central | 79c | 59.65$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.41 | 506 | 56.3%285 W · 221 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed CA Rosario Central | 78c | 57.01$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.54 | 51 | 68.6%35 W · 16 L | +4.9wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +36.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x83d9…10d9backed CA Rosario Central | 77c | 55.32$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.58 | 156 | 51.9%81 W · 75 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x657c…66a3backed CA Rosario Central | 78c | 42.99$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.46 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +1.8wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4b9b…7a9fbacked CA Rosario Central | 77c | 41.35$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.51 | 43 | 72.1%31 W · 12 L | +5.9wins | +0.14per pick | 58cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcc8e…944ebacked CA Rosario Central | 77c | 32.22$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.41 | 131 | 67.9%89 W · 42 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4993…553fbacked CA Rosario Central | 79c | 32.05$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.76 | 191 | 64.4%123 W · 68 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x345c…b59dbacked CA Rosario Central | 79c | 31.64$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.64 | 44 | 56.8%25 W · 19 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d5f…1171backed CA Rosario Central | 79c | 31.63$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.49 | 333 | 65.5%218 W · 115 L | +10.7wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x360a…1098backed CA Rosario Central | 78c | 27.99$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.16 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +2.5wins | +0.15per pick | 56cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…002fbacked CA Rosario Central | 77c | 26.82$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.14 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed CA Rosario Central | 78c | 24.41$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.37 | 1,439 | 37.5%540 W · 899 L | +4.1wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdef1…e893backed CA Rosario Central | 77c | 20.47$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.71 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +40%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe682…dbcdbacked CA Rosario Central | 80c | 17.5$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.5 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac48…e505backed CA Rosario Central | 77c | 17.03$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.86 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8e1…9bc1backed CA Rosario Central | 78c | 16.46$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.56 | 118 | 61.9%73 W · 45 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2bef…ffd3backed CA Rosario Central | 78c | 15.39$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.42 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 76cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ca9…4669backed CA Rosario Central | 77c | 14.57$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.32 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed CA Rosario Central | 78c | 13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.86 | 2,611 | 54.2%1,415 W · 1,196 L | +25.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: CA River Plate (-1.5)this page
- CA River Plate vs. CA Rosario Central: 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
- CA River Plate vs. CA Rosario Central: 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
- CA River Plate vs. CA Rosario Central: 1st Half O/U 2.5Under won
- CA River Plate vs. CA Rosario Central: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- CA River Plate vs. CA Rosario Central: Both Teams to Score in First HalfNo won
- CA River Plate vs. CA Rosario Central: CA River Plate O/U 0.5Under won
- CA River Plate vs. CA Rosario Central: CA River Plate O/U 1.5Under won
- CA River Plate vs. CA Rosario Central: CA Rosario Central O/U 0.5Over won
- CA River Plate vs. CA Rosario Central: CA Rosario Central O/U 2.5Under won
- CA River Plate vs. CA Rosario Central: O/U 0.5Over won
- CA River Plate vs. CA Rosario Central: O/U 1.5Under won
- CA River Plate vs. CA Rosario Central: O/U 2.5Under won
- CA River Plate vs. CA Rosario Central: O/U 3.5Under won
- CA River Plate vs. CA Rosario Central: O/U 4.5Under won
- CA River Plate vs. CA Rosario Central: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: CA River Plate (-2.5)CA Rosario Central won
- Spread: CA Rosario Central (-1.5)CA River Plate won
- Spread: CA Rosario Central (-2.5)CA River Plate won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.