Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on May 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x09e4a57a15852217f6f3cedb1d0452c4737daf955dfca962fff62e63deb29f83
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,546
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,126
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,546 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xedee…7139backed Yes | 26c | 1,312$344 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$344.1 | 63 | 30.2%19 W · 44 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 31c | 677.13$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.33 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 15c | 341.27$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.18 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed No | 40c | 210.8$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.65 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe47e…f8abbacked No | 67c | 180.01$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.28 | 240 | 66.3%159 W · 81 L | +13.5wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 60c | 158.05$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.56 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed No | 39c | 144.14$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.88 | 1,163 | 38.2%444 W · 719 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae2e…40adbacked Yes | 14c | 136.23$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.45 | 295 | 20.7%61 W · 234 L | +7.8wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf362…0505backed No | 42c | 118.18$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.18 | 84 | 53.6%45 W · 39 L | +4.0wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked Yes | 57c | 108.28$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.13 | 722 | 22.3%161 W · 561 L | -37.3wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 49c | 106.44$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.65 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8d…038bbacked Yes | 60c | 100.06$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.55 | 294 | 69.7%205 W · 89 L | +26.7wins | +0.09per pick | 61cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6854…67d0backed No | 69c | 99.54$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.45 | 617 | 52.8%326 W · 291 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe018…a22dbacked No | 67c | 97.62$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.66 | 90 | 58.9%53 W · 37 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 47c | 87.11$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.53 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x10e0…92e4backed No | 37c | 83.11$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.01 | 277 | 44%122 W · 155 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x455c…e548backed No | 50c | 81$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.43 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | -5.6wins | -0.17per pick | 66cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 38c | 79.64$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.22 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8b42…405abacked No | 61c | 75.08$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.28 | 168 | 33.9%57 W · 111 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 75c | 70$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.53 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 57c | 68$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.53 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked No | 45c | 67.72$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.03 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x09c2…8210backed Yes | 55c | 64$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.94 | 541 | 54%292 W · 249 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e10…d25bbacked Yes | 69c | 61.27$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 57c | 61.03$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.47 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…0379backed No | 58c | 60.22$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.43 | 548 | 57.5%315 W · 233 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd68…988dbacked No | 77c | 58$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.08 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 70cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked No | 71c | 50.5$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.81 | 435 | 63.9%278 W · 157 L | +13.6wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked No | 49c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.46 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf36…ffb0backed Yes | 27c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.43 | 159 | 39%62 W · 97 L | +14.4wins | +0.09per pick | 30cpaid | +28%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 49.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.5 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd995…e6e1backed Yes | 40c | 44.59$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.95 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe99…9ca7backed No | 48c | 41.66$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.85 | 669 | 26.2%175 W · 494 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed Yes | 56c | 40$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.2 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 71c | 38.53$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.16 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e96…b306backed Yes | 54c | 35.38$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.27 | 201 | 44.8%90 W · 111 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 41c | 34.98$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.64 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe45…fd22backed No | 43c | 33.92$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.29 | 49 | 55.1%27 W · 22 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x194b…e572backed No | 64c | 31.5$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.38 | 193 | 53.9%104 W · 89 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b1f…9ff2backed Yes | 58c | 31.02$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 323 | 52.9%171 W · 152 L | +19.6wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf64a…db74backed Yes | 58c | 31$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.09 | 333 | 49.8%166 W · 167 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2995…8410backed Yes | 62c | 30.07$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.55 | 196 | 32.7%64 W · 132 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 47c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.91 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed Yes | 65c | 29.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.49 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 42c | 29.82$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.66 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked Yes | 54c | 28$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.12 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed No | 57c | 27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.66 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 60c | 26.5$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.93 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad7…347abacked Yes | 52c | 26.04$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.43 | 729 | 52.4%382 W · 347 L | +34.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x89cf…76b3backed Yes | 58c | 25.6$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 41 | 58.5%24 W · 17 L | -3.3wins | -0.08per pick | 67cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed No | 75c | 24.32$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.08 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52d7…0ff9backed Yes | 61c | 21$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.71 | 382 | 58.9%225 W · 157 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 57c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ab…5cf7backed Yes | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 208 | 52.4%109 W · 99 L | -10.4wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x81ab…5f31backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 289 | 46.4%134 W · 155 L | -14.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 64c | 19.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.27 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe8f2…96d7backed No | 64c | 19.39$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.07 | 244 | 66.8%163 W · 81 L | +20.2wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2869…527dbacked Yes | 57c | 19$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.89 | 937 | 34.9%327 W · 610 L | -203.5wins | -0.22per pick | 57cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xb040…ef71backed Yes | 65c | 16.22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.54 | 113 | 62.8%71 W · 42 L | -4.8wins | -0.04per pick | 67cpaid | -8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on May 15?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on May 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on May 15?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on May 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on May 15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.