Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on May 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4114a1add5a471e950c0dbba980d491617e87cba5f8a889467443e2bdb096164
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,706
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,034
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,706 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 87 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xedee…7139backed Yes | 41c | 1,284$529 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$754.8 | 63 | 30.2%19 W · 44 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 57c | 578.54$331 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$247.3 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 43c | 229.7$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.06 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe018…a22dbacked No | 31c | 217.47$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.49 | 90 | 58.9%53 W · 37 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b42…405abacked Yes | 64c | 211.33$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.33 | 168 | 33.9%57 W · 111 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe47e…f8abbacked Yes | 57c | 191.01$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.16 | 240 | 66.3%159 W · 81 L | +13.5wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb784…2c8bbacked Yes | 59c | 189.94$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.6 | 36 | 75%27 W · 9 L | +5.9wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1e72…bd5dbacked Yes | 29c | 189.49$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.27 | 60 | 65%39 W · 21 L | +8.1wins | +0.14per pick | 51cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1eea…00c5backed Yes | 66c | 169.97$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.89 | 224 | 50.4%113 W · 111 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 68c | 169.12$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.51 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 49c | 158.05$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.74 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 41c | 145.37$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.96 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 35c | 120$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6854…67d0backed No | 28c | 110.67$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.15 | 617 | 52.8%326 W · 291 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3514…e337backed Yes | 46c | 109.88$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.34 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4302…8d4fbacked No | 29c | 106.86$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.47 | 82 | 53.7%44 W · 38 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 46c | 105.44$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.79 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf36…ffb0backed No | 37c | 100$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 159 | 39%62 W · 97 L | +14.4wins | +0.09per pick | 30cpaid | +28%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3808…8b90backed Yes | 59c | 96$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.03 | 85 | 63.5%54 W · 31 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad7…347abacked No | 39c | 94.39$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.99 | 729 | 52.4%382 W · 347 L | +34.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xebb1…e7afbacked Yes | 62c | 82.52$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.18 | 575 | 45%259 W · 316 L | +26.6wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 29c | 80.21$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.26 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed No | 29c | 80$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.2 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5235…43a8backed Yes | 58c | 80$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.26 | 245 | 39.6%97 W · 148 L | +10.6wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x194b…e572backed No | 31c | 79$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.81 | 193 | 53.9%104 W · 89 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 37c | 78.49$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.75 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x7e10…d25bbacked Yes | 34c | 71.3$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.3 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f19…e819backed Yes | 28c | 70.69$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.69 | 529 | 35.7%189 W · 340 L | +26.7wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +24%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 26c | 70$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.21 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8f2…96d7backed Yes | 53c | 67.03$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.29 | 244 | 66.8%163 W · 81 L | +20.2wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa8cd…0d51backed No | 16c | 66.26$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.7 | 142 | 50.7%72 W · 70 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf3d2…6efcbacked No | 29c | 66$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.25 | 219 | 30.1%66 W · 153 L | +15.3wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x455c…e548backed No | 72c | 62.4$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.13 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | -5.6wins | -0.17per pick | 66cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 38c | 60.61$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.26 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed No | 40c | 58.88$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.49 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 27c | 58.47$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.48 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf64a…db74backed Yes | 76c | 56.28$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.43 | 333 | 49.8%166 W · 167 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbc4…35e3backed No | 37c | 56.22$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.73 | 114 | 38.6%44 W · 70 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked No | 32c | 56$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.76 | 435 | 63.9%278 W · 157 L | +13.6wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf9a…72b2backed No | 30c | 54.22$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.53 | 38 | 42.1%16 W · 22 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x381d…07edbacked No | 39c | 51.28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | +3.8wins | +0.12per pick | 25cpaid | +59.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x10e0…92e4backed No | 36c | 50.12$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.06 | 277 | 44%122 W · 155 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09c2…8210backed Yes | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 541 | 54%292 W · 249 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked No | 37c | 49.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.3 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 49.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed No | 44c | 46.98$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.59 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x695c…1a9ebacked No | 73c | 45.99$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.66 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -3.1wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc1e5…c5dfbacked No | 34c | 42.52$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.51 | 47 | 29.8%14 W · 33 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed Yes | 69c | 42.11$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.23 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 61c | 41.45$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.17 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd879…7bc3backed No | 51c | 40.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | +7.0wins | +0.16per pick | 36cpaid | +62.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 44c | 40$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.44 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed Yes | 64c | 39.69$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.14 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5bbf…002fbacked Yes | 65c | 38.64$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.57 | 109 | 53.2%58 W · 51 L | +19.9wins | +0.18per pick | 35cpaid | +424.1%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xebf0…2330backed No | 53c | 37.73$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 410 | 51.7%212 W · 198 L | +24.9wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked No | 32c | 37.5$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe06d…ac24backed No | 40c | 37.05$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.71 | 40 | 32.5%13 W · 27 L | -6.3wins | -0.16per pick | 48cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 60c | 35.63$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.26 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbfc…31b1backed No | 37c | 35.44$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.07 | 128 | 29.7%38 W · 90 L | +7.1wins | +0.06per pick | 24cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 37c | 35$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.98 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 41c | 35$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.35 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e96…b306backed Yes | 41c | 33.43$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.68 | 201 | 44.8%90 W · 111 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9686…1701backed No | 40c | 32.56$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 351 | 33.6%118 W · 233 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 67c | 32.53$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.67 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11a9…4182backed Yes | 70c | 32.19$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.66 | 92 | 60.9%56 W · 36 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28fe…1640backed Yes | 53c | 31.06$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.63 | 29 | 82.8%24 W · 5 L | +7.3wins | +0.25per pick | 58cpaid | +48.1%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x0ba3…57bcbacked Yes | 65c | 31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.95 | 391 | 59.8%234 W · 157 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2108…2e40backed No | 34c | 31$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.43 | 59 | 39%23 W · 36 L | -2.9wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa318…ccb3backed Yes | 70c | 30.59$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.18 | 37 | 59.5%22 W · 15 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked Yes | 63c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked Yes | 63c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed Yes | 65c | 29.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x98d9…2c8cbacked Yes | 57c | 29.74$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.86 | 576 | 59%340 W · 236 L | -17.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0e…8337backed Yes | 56c | 29.27$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.77 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9838…8469backed Yes | 68c | 29.2$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 57 | 56.1%32 W · 25 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe0fe…e62abacked No | 50c | 28.26$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.03 | 236 | 77.1%182 W · 54 L | +23.3wins | +0.10per pick | 67cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6659…b7cabacked Yes | 65c | 27.42$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 938 | 37.6%353 W · 585 L | -14.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd995…e6e1backed Yes | 46c | 26.79$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.36 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a50…6c35backed No | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked No | 42c | 24$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x393e…b2f0backed Yes | 64c | 23.6$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.5 | 41 | 63.4%26 W · 15 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcab6…f3debacked Yes | 53c | 23.26$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.83 | 35 | 71.4%25 W · 10 L | +2.6wins | +0.07per pick | 64cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Yes | 58c | 21.37$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.05 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x470b…c331backed Yes | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 147 | 44.2%65 W · 82 L | -5.5wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2995…8410backed Yes | 69c | 17.38$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.39 | 196 | 32.7%64 W · 132 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed Yes | 71c | 17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.93 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on May 15?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on May 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on May 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on May 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on May 15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.