TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on May 15?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$12,706
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$14,034

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,706 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 87 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xedee…7139backed Yes41c1,284$529 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$754.86330.2%19 W · 44 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick31cpaid-8.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb06a…52f5backed Yes57c578.54$331 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$247.35,83236.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L+211.1wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-24.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2b40…ced4backed No43c229.7$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.0695852.5%503 W · 455 L+103.2wins+0.11per pick42cpaid+9.4%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xe018…a22dbacked No31c217.47$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.499058.9%53 W · 37 L+3.4wins+0.04per pick55cpaid-0.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8b42…405abacked Yes64c211.33$135 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.3316833.9%57 W · 111 L+5.3wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-16.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe47e…f8abbacked Yes57c191.01$109 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.1624066.3%159 W · 81 L+13.5wins+0.06per pick61cpaid+6.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb784…2c8bbacked Yes59c189.94$111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.63675%27 W · 9 L+5.9wins+0.16per pick59cpaid+29.5%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x1e72…bd5dbacked Yes29c189.49$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$135.276065%39 W · 21 L+8.1wins+0.14per pick51cpaid+20.2%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x1eea…00c5backed Yes66c169.97$112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.8922450.4%113 W · 111 L-2.4wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-14.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked No68c169.12$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.514,34729.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L+19.8wins0.00per pick29cpaid-8.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x2b59…9db6backed No49c158.05$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.741,90155.6%1,057 W · 844 L+7.7wins0.00per pick55cpaid-6.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9f20…12c3backed No41c145.37$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.964,10456.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L+50.5wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed No35c120$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$428,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6854…67d0backed No28c110.67$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.1561752.8%326 W · 291 L-1.5wins0.00per pick53cpaid-3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3514…e337backed Yes46c109.88$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.343336.4%12 W · 21 L-1.4wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-26.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4302…8d4fbacked No29c106.86$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.478253.7%44 W · 38 L+3.0wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+8.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa708…9321backed No46c105.44$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.791,29957.5%747 W · 552 L+11.8wins+0.01per pick57cpaid-9.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdf36…ffb0backed No37c100$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3715939%62 W · 97 L+14.4wins+0.09per pick30cpaid+28%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x3808…8b90backed Yes59c96$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.038563.5%54 W · 31 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick62cpaid+1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6ad7…347abacked No39c94.39$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.9972952.4%382 W · 347 L+34.9wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+9.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xebb1…e7afbacked Yes62c82.52$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.1857545%259 W · 316 L+26.6wins+0.05per pick40cpaid+13%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed No29c80.21$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.269,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed No29c80$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.217,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5235…43a8backed Yes58c80$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.2624539.6%97 W · 148 L+10.6wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+13.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x194b…e572backed No31c79$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.8119353.9%104 W · 89 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-13.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No37c78.49$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.7512,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x7e10…d25bbacked Yes34c71.3$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.3650%3 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick54cpaid+23.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0f19…e819backed Yes28c70.69$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.6952935.7%189 W · 340 L+26.7wins+0.05per pick31cpaid+24%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd1a6…1507backed No26c70$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.212,62654%1,418 W · 1,208 L-56.4wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-19.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe8f2…96d7backed Yes53c67.03$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.2924466.8%163 W · 81 L+20.2wins+0.08per pick59cpaid+14.6%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xa8cd…0d51backed No16c66.26$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.714250.7%72 W · 70 L+5.1wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+10.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf3d2…6efcbacked No29c66$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.2521930.1%66 W · 153 L+15.3wins+0.07per pick23cpaid+38.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x455c…e548backed No72c62.4$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.133348.5%16 W · 17 L-5.6wins-0.17per pick66cpaid-32.5%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xc518…2594backed No38c60.61$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.261,92853.5%1,032 W · 896 L+39.0wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe2be…ff33backed No40c58.88$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.491,20348.9%588 W · 615 L-24.7wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-9.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes27c58.47$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.481,54416.3%252 W · 1,292 L+21.9wins+0.01per pick15cpaid+10.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf64a…db74backed Yes76c56.28$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.4333349.8%166 W · 167 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-7.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdbc4…35e3backed No37c56.22$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.7311438.6%44 W · 70 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick38cpaid+5.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8fe7…6c1fbacked No32c56$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.7643563.9%278 W · 157 L+13.6wins+0.03per pick61cpaid+4.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcf9a…72b2backed No30c54.22$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.533842.1%16 W · 22 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick45cpaid+1.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x381d…07edbacked No39c51.28$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203336.4%12 W · 21 L+3.8wins+0.12per pick25cpaid+59.4%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x10e0…92e4backed No36c50.12$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.0627744%122 W · 155 L+0.7wins0.00per pick44cpaid-8.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x09c2…8210backed Yes70c50$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1554154%292 W · 249 L+13.3wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe422…4d64backed No41c50$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.52,06543.6%900 W · 1,165 L-11.3wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3f30…f8debacked No37c49.99$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.33,83047.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L+63.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2986…b3a9backed No30c49.99$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152,99531.4%940 W · 2,055 L+41.6wins+0.01per pick30cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9cfd…dfe7backed No44c46.98$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.5999961.8%617 W · 382 L+19.0wins+0.02per pick60cpaid-1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x695c…1a9ebacked No73c45.99$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.661625%4 W · 12 L-3.1wins-0.20per pick45cpaid-47.9%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xc1e5…c5dfbacked No34c42.52$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.514729.8%14 W · 33 L-2.8wins-0.06per pick36cpaid-18.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdedd…17e1backed Yes69c42.11$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.232,43260.4%1,470 W · 962 L+30.2wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf73f…ee53backed Yes61c41.45$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.172,95033.6%992 W · 1,958 L+9.9wins0.00per pick33cpaid+4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd879…7bc3backed No51c40.05$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.44452.3%23 W · 21 L+7.0wins+0.16per pick36cpaid+62.9%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No44c40$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.444,96168.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L+65.6wins+0.01per pick67cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2612…5289backed Yes64c39.69$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.143,04840.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L-121.5wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-23.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5bbf…002fbacked Yes65c38.64$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.5710953.2%58 W · 51 L+19.9wins+0.18per pick35cpaid+424.1%equal weight66+0.15 edge/pick
0xebf0…2330backed No53c37.73$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2041051.7%212 W · 198 L+24.9wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+13.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x6e41…5e0cbacked No32c37.5$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121,06147.9%508 W · 553 L+32.9wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+0.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe06d…ac24backed No40c37.05$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.714032.5%13 W · 27 L-6.3wins-0.16per pick48cpaid-43.2%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes60c35.63$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.267,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfbfc…31b1backed No37c35.44$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.0712829.7%38 W · 90 L+7.1wins+0.06per pick24cpaid+12.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5964…35dfbacked No37c35$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.981,27933.6%430 W · 849 L-6.3wins0.00per pick34cpaid-7.2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x86c2…8010backed No41c35$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.351,27147.6%605 W · 666 L-25.1wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3e96…b306backed Yes41c33.43$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.6820144.8%90 W · 111 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-3.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9686…1701backed No40c32.56$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1335133.6%118 W · 233 L+10.3wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0484…4830backed Yes67c32.53$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.675,18647.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L+66.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x11a9…4182backed Yes70c32.19$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.669260.9%56 W · 36 L-3.2wins-0.04per pick64cpaid-5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x28fe…1640backed Yes53c31.06$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.632982.8%24 W · 5 L+7.3wins+0.25per pick58cpaid+48.1%equal weight65+0.13 edge/pick
0x0ba3…57bcbacked Yes65c31$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.9539159.8%234 W · 157 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2108…2e40backed No34c31$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.435939%23 W · 36 L-2.9wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-8.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa318…ccb3backed Yes70c30.59$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.183759.5%22 W · 15 L-2.2wins-0.06per pick65cpaid-8.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xcfff…673dbacked Yes63c30$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.13,05761.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L-35.2wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked Yes63c30$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.13,75561.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L-36.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeb54…d452backed Yes65c29.99$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.54,52565.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L-134.0wins-0.03per pick69cpaid-4.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x98d9…2c8cbacked Yes57c29.74$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.8657659%340 W · 236 L-17.2wins-0.03per pick62cpaid-8.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1d0e…8337backed Yes56c29.27$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.773537.1%13 W · 22 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+8.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9838…8469backed Yes68c29.2$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.25756.1%32 W · 25 L-3.0wins-0.05per pick61cpaid-7.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe0fe…e62abacked No50c28.26$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.0323677.1%182 W · 54 L+23.3wins+0.10per pick67cpaid+16.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x6659…b7cabacked Yes65c27.42$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.693837.6%353 W · 585 L-14.5wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-3.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd995…e6e1backed Yes46c26.79$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.36450%2 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-5.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9a50…6c35backed No40c25$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102948.3%14 W · 15 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-7.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xbb1a…1e6dbacked No42c24$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.081,35930.2%411 W · 948 L-92.9wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-22.9%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x393e…b2f0backed Yes64c23.6$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.54163.4%26 W · 15 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick66cpaid-5.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcab6…f3debacked Yes53c23.26$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.833571.4%25 W · 10 L+2.6wins+0.07per pick64cpaid+12.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9cb3…1367backed Yes58c21.37$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.051,55433.1%515 W · 1,039 L-66.6wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-27.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x470b…c331backed Yes71c20$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.814744.2%65 W · 82 L-5.5wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-5.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2995…8410backed Yes69c17.38$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.3919632.7%64 W · 132 L-5.4wins-0.03per pick35cpaid-18.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed Yes71c17$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.934,54758.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L-107.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.