TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Bundesliga · resolved market

Will FC St. Pauli 1910 vs. SV Werder Bremen end in a draw?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$67,126
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$84,426

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $67,126 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 87 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x8627…5382backed No70c15,601$10,940 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,661.882356.5%13 W · 10 L0.0wins0.00per pick57cpaid+8.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4133…5e70backed No70c5,471$3,827 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,643.5875142.5%319 W · 432 L-26.7wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-14.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2575…bf1ebacked Yes31c4,160$1,306 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,306.061723.5%4 W · 13 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick28cpaid-15.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1867…92cabacked Yes41c3,421$1,403 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,402.548752.9%46 W · 41 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc459…7b3fbacked Yes31c2,987$926 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92610%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Yes30c2,453$731 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$730.653,28442.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L-74.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-18.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd37a…2358backed No69c2,294$1,583 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$711.5762452.6%328 W · 296 L-9.9wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-4.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xebba…383cbacked Yes41c2,246$931 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$931.251752.9%9 W · 8 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+14.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xecfc…cd05backed Yes31c1,635$507 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$506.8510361.2%63 W · 40 L+8.2wins+0.08per pick53cpaid+12.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb9ab…f282backed Yes31c1,500$465 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4659854.1%53 W · 45 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x160b…4296backed No69c1,436$991 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$445.0838748.3%187 W · 200 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-3.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x86be…4490backed Yes31c1,371$425 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4253941%16 W · 23 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick42cpaid+9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4bba…cf14backed No70c1,246$872 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$373.672955.2%16 W · 13 L-4.6wins-0.16per pick71cpaid-22.1%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xefce…4e4abacked Yes41c1,220$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5002157.1%12 W · 9 L+1.1wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+14.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1e52…91d6backed Yes4c1,207$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.737032.9%23 W · 47 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-8.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7a49…d9f5backed Yes30c1,049$312 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$311.8140744.5%181 W · 226 L-5.1wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-20.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc922…2618backed Yes41c1,000$410 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4109048.9%44 W · 46 L-2.3wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xce2b…08fabacked No63c873.02$550 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$323.0238055.8%212 W · 168 L-0.9wins0.00per pick56cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x49ed…a2fbbacked Yes31c866$268 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$268.464837.5%18 W · 30 L-1.6wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-20.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4a86…d3e0backed No69c800$552 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24835856.4%202 W · 156 L+19.9wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+10.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc7e5…2d3abacked Yes21c723.81$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1504129.3%12 W · 29 L+2.3wins+0.06per pick24cpaid+36.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked No73c615.49$449 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$166.082,53839.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L-8.1wins0.00per pick40cpaid-11.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Yes30c561.99$169 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$168.669851.9%362 W · 336 L+22.3wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+9.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7b2c…af48backed No69c558.89$386 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$173.2656547.8%270 W · 295 L+6.8wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Yes30c529.75$159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$158.931,68145.2%759 W · 922 L+6.8wins0.00per pick45cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xde53…e5bebacked No70c437$306 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$131.17758.4%45 W · 32 L-3.7wins-0.05per pick63cpaid-2.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5773…ac11backed No69c396.34$273 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.8731145%140 W · 171 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick46cpaid+4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5e5b…a569backed Yes31c387.1$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120757.1%4 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick60cpaid-12.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9dce…b663backed No70c329$230 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.71770.6%12 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick73cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5d9e…e0e3backed Yes32c315.36$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10019254.7%105 W · 87 L+8.1wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4a8d…31eabacked Yes31c299.49$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.734547.5%164 W · 181 L+0.8wins0.00per pick47cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x806b…5cd8backed Yes31c252.19$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.181866.7%12 W · 6 L+1.3wins+0.07per pick59cpaid+7.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Yes9c206$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.5428241.5%117 W · 165 L-7.9wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-16.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4d3e…783bbacked Yes41c200$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$822751.9%14 W · 13 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ae5…f51dbacked Yes31c200$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$622339.1%9 W · 14 L-1.4wins-0.06per pick45cpaid-18.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2079…33d8backed Yes33c181.82$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick51cpaid-4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x34a9…d343backed Yes15c133.33$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202231.8%7 W · 15 L-2.4wins-0.11per pick43cpaid-27.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x781c…db68backed Yes13c117.3$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.2722332.3%72 W · 151 L-7.6wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-24%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3ad9…3cb4backed Yes31c106.87$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.271650%8 W · 8 L+3.0wins+0.19per pick31cpaid+69.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xa509…ae46backed Yes29c106.2$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.1639857.5%229 W · 169 L+20.0wins+0.05per pick53cpaid-2.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x232c…5109backed Yes24c104.17$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2510%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x344b…f7fcbacked Yes11c104$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.683554.3%19 W · 16 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+1.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4512…5d41backed Yes31c101.26$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.396443.8%28 W · 36 L+7.1wins+0.11per pick33cpaid+44.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x711a…9240backed Yes32c100.86$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.71717.6%3 W · 14 L-1.6wins-0.10per pick27cpaid-69.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf2ba…4028backed Yes31c100$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3138845.6%177 W · 211 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3486…49eebacked Yes20c100$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2019943.2%86 W · 113 L-0.2wins0.00per pick43cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfccd…02d6backed No68c99.99$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$324671.7%33 W · 13 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick69cpaid-2.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Yes32c89$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.4833945.7%155 W · 184 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd9fe…e4bebacked Yes31c87.1$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27922.2%2 W · 7 L-2.1wins-0.23per pick45cpaid-56.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x204f…1c65backed No49c81.63$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.632584%21 W · 4 L+6.9wins+0.27per pick57cpaid+45.5%equal weight65+0.14 edge/pick
0x06da…0a4abacked Yes31c64.52$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204440.9%18 W · 26 L-2.2wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-13.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x58e0…ebecbacked Yes31c64.52$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203860.5%23 W · 15 L+1.9wins+0.05per pick56cpaid+13.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd9fb…74f3backed Yes31c64.52$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203636.1%13 W · 23 L+1.7wins+0.05per pick32cpaid+9.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x44b8…a2d7backed Yes16c62.5$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1020540%82 W · 123 L-8.0wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-11.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9651…0488backed Yes32c56.67$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1820%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x972b…78babacked Yes30c55.17$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.5556951.8%295 W · 274 L+10.0wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5b1c…8895backed Yes31c52.31$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.2210%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x67d2…a008backed Yes39c51.28$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203759.5%22 W · 15 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick57cpaid+14.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xdbe0…e3e0backed No63c50$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.55100%5 W · 0 L+1.7wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+51.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xd257…d215backed Yes26c50$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138517.6%15 W · 70 L-3.8wins-0.04per pick22cpaid-34.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xddd7…1596backed No69c50$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.525855.4%143 W · 115 L+5.5wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9aaf…8298backed No69c50$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.521450%107 W · 107 L+0.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid-5.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x51e5…da69backed No69c49.99$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.510258.8%60 W · 42 L+3.8wins+0.04per pick55cpaid+10.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0044…cb2cbacked Yes22c49.53$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.03333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.07per pick26cpaid-2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9468…dc7dbacked Yes31c49$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.19633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick40cpaid-11.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x56e6…45e9backed Yes31c48.65$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.084858.3%28 W · 20 L+3.7wins+0.08per pick51cpaid+10.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb7bd…616cbacked No69c46.95$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.553959%23 W · 16 L+1.3wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+6.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9310…5e55backed Yes33c36.36$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129243.5%40 W · 52 L-3.5wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-5.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1d08…2142backed No72c35.54$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.966936.2%25 W · 44 L-4.6wins-0.07per pick43cpaid-29.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8c34…2d7dbacked Yes41c33.94$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.021546.7%7 W · 8 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick49cpaid+0.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x12c3…b054backed Yes32c31.25$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.2wins+0.20per pick46cpaid+21.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x252f…4f62backed Yes32c31.25$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104630.4%14 W · 32 L-5.5wins-0.12per pick42cpaid-22.4%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x507a…be1fbacked No62c29.55$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.272060%12 W · 8 L0.0wins0.00per pick60cpaid-0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed Yes42c25.62$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.8681732.8%268 W · 549 L-11.2wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-12.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2d6a…8addbacked No69c25$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.7542046.4%195 W · 225 L-10.1wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-8.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1e76…47fabacked No69c24.99$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.759564.2%61 W · 34 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick64cpaid-1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x223f…2050backed No58c20.68$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.692755.6%15 W · 12 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-13.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6a24…3845backed No69c20.24$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.2711563.5%73 W · 42 L+4.6wins+0.04per pick59cpaid+9.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7e7e…cf14backed No75c19.73$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.881100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+32.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x25f9…317abacked No70c19.2$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.761100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+42.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe1c3…a583backed No60c19$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.6785.7%6 W · 1 L+2.7wins+0.38per pick48cpaid+190.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked No72c18$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.0278248.8%382 W · 400 L-28.1wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-12.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xae6f…041ebacked No70c16.84$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.051100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+42.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x22eb…7347backed No70c16.27$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.881100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+42.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x75e3…4bd5backed No69c15$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.653770.3%26 W · 11 L-0.1wins0.00per pick70cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x75be…9a9ebacked No70c15$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.5366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick72cpaid-6.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfcb5…9bf1backed No69c14.6$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.5333340.8%136 W · 197 L-14.3wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-14.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.