Bundesliga · resolved market

Will SV Werder Bremen win on 2026-02-22?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9f6d230148dde274fee943757c6433a67eb37087b5c038a9bfc47422564749c2

Rebuilt 15 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Feb 22, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $39,371
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $40,116

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $39,371 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 89 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x204f…5e14backed No	68c	9,851$6,651 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,199.61	3,284	42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L	-74.0wins	-0.02per pick	45cpaid	-18.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe524…d34fbacked Yes	34c	8,550$2,907 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,907.11	31	25.8%8 W · 23 L	-1.0wins	-0.03per pick	29cpaid	-7.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7b2c…af48backed No	66c	3,500$2,310 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,190	565	47.8%270 W · 295 L	+6.8wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	-0.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4133…5e70backed No	67c	2,548$1,720 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$828.45	751	42.5%319 W · 432 L	-26.7wins	-0.04per pick	46cpaid	-14.2%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4818…bf0bbacked Yes	34c	2,122$721 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$721.47	61	44.3%27 W · 34 L	-1.1wins	-0.02per pick	46cpaid	-17.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd37a…2358backed No	65c	2,052$1,337 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$715.45	624	52.6%328 W · 296 L	-9.9wins	-0.02per pick	54cpaid	-4.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x690c…d914backed Yes	2c	1,863$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.1	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked No	66c	1,455$960 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$494.93	1,681	45.2%759 W · 922 L	+6.8wins	0.00per pick	45cpaid	-2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed No	65c	1,166$757 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$408.6	698	51.9%362 W · 336 L	+22.3wins	+0.03per pick	49cpaid	+9.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe8a1…2b76backed Yes	34c	1,000$340 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$340	14	50%7 W · 7 L	-0.5wins	-0.04per pick	54cpaid	+1.4%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3fe8…1fd3backed Yes	6c	800$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44	96	21.9%21 W · 75 L	+1.9wins	+0.02per pick	20cpaid	+12.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfb85…8464backed Yes	33c	757.58$250 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$250	155	40.6%63 W · 92 L	-5.3wins	-0.03per pick	44cpaid	-13.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Yes	35c	756$265 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$264.64	339	45.7%155 W · 184 L	+1.9wins	+0.01per pick	45cpaid	+0.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Yes	29c	708.78$204 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$203.53	2,538	39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L	-8.1wins	0.00per pick	40cpaid	-11.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb47e…c602backed Yes	35c	700$245 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$245	82	48.8%40 W · 42 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-3.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe706…89bcbacked Yes	35c	652.54$228 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$228.39	118	43.2%51 W · 67 L	+1.1wins	+0.01per pick	42cpaid	+1.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x160b…4296backed No	65c	633.01$411 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$221.55	387	48.3%187 W · 200 L	-3.4wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-3.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1e52…91d6backed Yes	33c	619.14$204 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$204.36	70	32.9%23 W · 47 L	-0.7wins	-0.01per pick	34cpaid	-8.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4a8d…31eabacked Yes	35c	618$216 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$216.3	345	47.5%164 W · 181 L	+0.8wins	0.00per pick	47cpaid	-2.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7a49…d9f5backed No	77c	587.93$454 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$133.65	407	44.5%181 W · 226 L	-5.1wins	-0.01per pick	46cpaid	-20.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5426…bc07backed No	65c	566$368 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$198.1	3	66.7%2 W · 1 L	+0.7wins	+0.23per pick	43cpaid	+41.4%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe6db…fcfcbacked Yes	35c	558$195 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$195.3	3	66.7%2 W · 1 L	+0.7wins	+0.22per pick	45cpaid	+65.3%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe8a0…92dfbacked Yes	33c	460.33$152 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$151.91	23	39.1%9 W · 14 L	+0.9wins	+0.04per pick	35cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x972b…78babacked No	66c	411.03$271 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$139.75	569	51.8%295 W · 274 L	+10.0wins	+0.02per pick	50cpaid	+3.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbed0…3c7dbacked Yes	34c	405.5$136 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$135.86	204	36.3%74 W · 130 L	-5.5wins	-0.03per pick	39cpaid	-13%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xdc2b…d830backed Yes	26c	400$104 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$104	18	44.4%8 W · 10 L	+0.3wins	+0.02per pick	43cpaid	-0.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa178…11a2backed Yes	26c	384.62$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	190	55.3%105 W · 85 L	+5.1wins	+0.03per pick	53cpaid	+4.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf438…de5dbacked Yes	34c	352.41$120 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$119.82	19	42.1%8 W · 11 L	+3.3wins	+0.17per pick	25cpaid	+126.2%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0xefde…6505backed No	66c	337.79$223 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$114.85	220	47.3%104 W · 116 L	+4.7wins	+0.02per pick	45cpaid	+2.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x85a1…a640backed No	66c	310.61$205 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$105.61	89	59.6%53 W · 36 L	+0.6wins	+0.01per pick	59cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4706…286ebacked No	66c	300$198 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$102	160	45%72 W · 88 L	-1.0wins	-0.01per pick	46cpaid	-12.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x814c…7ffabacked No	66c	300$198 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$102	194	46.4%90 W · 104 L	-3.1wins	-0.02per pick	48cpaid	-14.9%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc398…f446backed Yes	35c	289.23$101 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$101.23	64	28.1%18 W · 46 L	-3.7wins	-0.06per pick	34cpaid	-17.6%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3045…8f78backed Yes	36c	278.62$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	175	49.1%86 W · 89 L	+1.8wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4d84…21b1backed No	66c	229.68$152 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$78.09	99	51.5%51 W · 48 L	-1.4wins	-0.01per pick	53cpaid	-9.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb9f3…0979backed Yes	27c	228.7$62 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$61.75	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-1.9wins	-0.32per pick	32cpaid	-100%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x0c84…a8edbacked Yes	35c	228.57$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80	49	49%24 W · 25 L	+0.4wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	+3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x84f7…ade1backed No	66c	217$143 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$73.78	185	45.9%85 W · 100 L	+1.3wins	+0.01per pick	45cpaid	+7.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x22ea…0d10backed Yes	33c	178.39$59 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$58.87	8	37.5%3 W · 5 L	-0.9wins	-0.11per pick	48cpaid	-29.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf699…07e1backed Yes	10c	151$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.87	104	63.5%66 W · 38 L	+9.8wins	+0.09per pick	54cpaid	+22.5%equal weight	58+0.08 edge/pick
0x766c…fd5bbacked Yes	35c	142.86$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	11	36.4%4 W · 7 L	-1.0wins	-0.09per pick	45cpaid	-32.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x682f…3265backed Yes	35c	142.86$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	175	47.4%83 W · 92 L	-9.0wins	-0.05per pick	53cpaid	-13.5%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe250…410bbacked Yes	35c	141.6$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.56	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.4wins	-0.35per pick	35cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa509…ae46backed No	76c	133.31$101 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$32.26	398	57.5%229 W · 169 L	+20.0wins	+0.05per pick	53cpaid	-2.3%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4a86…d3e0backed No	66c	132.07$87 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$44.9	358	56.4%202 W · 156 L	+19.9wins	+0.06per pick	51cpaid	+10.8%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9d49…5ecebacked Yes	19c	120$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.3	19	47.4%9 W · 10 L	+2.5wins	+0.13per pick	34cpaid	+51.7%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0xc81a…c368backed Yes	34c	118$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.12	15	46.7%7 W · 8 L	+0.2wins	+0.01per pick	45cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x7705…a442backed Yes	32c	109.36$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35	158	29.1%46 W · 112 L	-5.7wins	-0.04per pick	33cpaid	-19.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7509…d031backed Yes	34c	100$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34	7	42.9%3 W · 4 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	43cpaid	-14.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5eeb…01b2backed No	66c	99.16$66 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$33.25	149	34.9%52 W · 97 L	-7.2wins	-0.05per pick	40cpaid	-25.7%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc1c4…bbfbbacked Yes	34c	98.2$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.39	11	63.6%7 W · 4 L	+1.2wins	+0.11per pick	53cpaid	+18.9%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa89e…4ab4backed Yes	35c	96$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.6	66	60.6%40 W · 26 L	+4.6wins	+0.07per pick	54cpaid	+11.9%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0c5a…9b3bbacked No	66c	90.91$60 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$30.91	7	42.9%3 W · 4 L	-1.2wins	-0.17per pick	60cpaid	-38.4%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x03c7…22f2backed Yes	34c	88.24$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	14	35.7%5 W · 9 L	-1.4wins	-0.10per pick	46cpaid	-16.5%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3d5f…7e6fbacked Yes	35c	85.71$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	93	45.2%42 W · 51 L	+0.8wins	+0.01per pick	44cpaid	+1.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x75ff…9aaabacked Yes	35c	85.62$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	32	53.1%17 W · 15 L	+3.2wins	+0.10per pick	43cpaid	+9.1%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x711a…9240backed Yes	35c	83.98$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.39	17	17.6%3 W · 14 L	-1.6wins	-0.10per pick	27cpaid	-69.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc550…8e46backed Yes	33c	81.12$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.77	19	36.8%7 W · 12 L	-1.5wins	-0.08per pick	45cpaid	-17.9%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x75fd…9a86backed Yes	35c	78.8$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.58	18	33.3%6 W · 12 L	-1.2wins	-0.07per pick	40cpaid	-25.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x587b…2622backed No	73c	77.78$57 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20.65	194	58.2%113 W · 81 L	+9.8wins	+0.05per pick	53cpaid	+28%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6008…a80bbacked No	66c	75.75$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$25.76	373	44.5%166 W · 207 L	-15.1wins	-0.04per pick	49cpaid	-17.4%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9b89…99e2backed No	66c	68.59$45 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$23.32	258	50.4%130 W · 128 L	+6.9wins	+0.03per pick	48cpaid	+4.1%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x44b8…a2d7backed Yes	33c	60.61$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	205	40%82 W · 123 L	-8.0wins	-0.04per pick	44cpaid	-11.3%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe9cd…9a4cbacked No	67c	59.7$40 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$19.7	72	68.1%49 W · 23 L	+2.6wins	+0.04per pick	65cpaid	+4.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x43ed…79e1backed Yes	35c	57.14$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	33	45.5%15 W · 18 L	-0.5wins	-0.02per pick	47cpaid	-14.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x82df…2265backed Yes	35c	56.32$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.71	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.6wins	-0.20per pick	54cpaid	-56.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4a47…cfbbbacked Yes	34c	55.88$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19	27	51.9%14 W · 13 L	+1.2wins	+0.04per pick	48cpaid	+0.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xec89…3286backed Yes	36c	55.69$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	40	30%12 W · 28 L	-7.1wins	-0.18per pick	48cpaid	-41.4%equal weight	38-0.11 edge/pick
0x3b7f…7aecbacked Yes	31c	50$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.5	34	41.2%14 W · 20 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	41cpaid	+4.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xdd11…79a5backed No	66c	50$33 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$17	21	85.7%18 W · 3 L	+6.7wins	+0.32per pick	54cpaid	+60.6%equal weight	66+0.15 edge/pick
0x9aaf…8298backed No	65c	50$33 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$17.33	214	50%107 W · 107 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-5.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x80d8…b703backed Yes	27c	47.78$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.9	146	42.5%62 W · 84 L	-7.6wins	-0.05per pick	48cpaid	-11.6%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x781c…db68backed Yes	28c	40$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.2	223	32.3%72 W · 151 L	-7.6wins	-0.03per pick	36cpaid	-24%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x40ec…9471backed Yes	34c	35.29$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.3wins	-0.34per pick	34cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x355c…81c5backed Yes	33c	30.64$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.11	11	45.5%5 W · 6 L	-1.1wins	-0.10per pick	56cpaid	-17.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x48df…e4c9backed Yes	35c	30$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.5	75	45.3%34 W · 41 L	+0.5wins	+0.01per pick	45cpaid	-2.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb196…33d5backed No	66c	29.99$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10.3	102	62.7%64 W · 38 L	+2.4wins	+0.02per pick	60cpaid	+3.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xac3f…1966backed Yes	35c	29.2$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.22	21	52.4%11 W · 10 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	53cpaid	-3.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0f88…293bbacked No	78c	27.55$21 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6.19	6	66.7%4 W · 2 L	+0.9wins	+0.15per pick	52cpaid	+27.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8ae3…3401backed No	66c	26.24$17 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8.92	3	66.7%2 W · 1 L	-0.2wins	-0.07per pick	74cpaid	-6.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x507a…be1fbacked No	67c	23.6$16 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.77	20	60%12 W · 8 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	60cpaid	-0.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa6a9…c3fdbacked No	66c	22.4$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.62	2	100%2 W · 0 L	+0.8wins	+0.39per pick	62cpaid	+63.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5565…4b3bbacked No	69c	20.76$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6.39	201	53.7%108 W · 93 L	+5.4wins	+0.03per pick	51cpaid	-0.5%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x12c3…b054backed No	68c	20$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6.4	6	66.7%4 W · 2 L	+1.2wins	+0.20per pick	46cpaid	+21.6%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xed6a…841ebacked No	66c	19$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6.46	4	75%3 W · 1 L	+0.9wins	+0.24per pick	51cpaid	+60.5%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5e16…609abacked No	67c	18$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5.94	2	50%1 W · 1 L	-0.2wins	-0.12per pick	62cpaid	-25.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1ad5…8a5ebacked No	66c	17.24$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5.86	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.3wins	+0.34per pick	66cpaid	+51.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x23ab…ade3backed No	66c	16.68$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5.67	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.3wins	+0.34per pick	66cpaid	+51.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x95dc…4b45backed No	67c	16.35$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5.46	16	56.3%9 W · 7 L	-0.4wins	-0.03per pick	59cpaid	-4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Will SV Werder Bremen win on 2026-02-22?this page
Will FC St. Pauli 1910 vs. SV Werder Bremen end in a draw?No won
Will FC St. Pauli 1910 win on 2026-02-22?Yes won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will SV Werder Bremen win on 2026-02-22?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event