Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be between 64–65°F on May 21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0a4f788a55ba3ceecb7c8455c6ce76e705005dfd6a1b015e233a77193e90b668
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $30,267
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $35,107
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,267 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8334…4e9fbacked Yes | 60c | 1,066$641 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$425.2 | 36 | 22.2%8 W · 28 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb182…005fbacked Yes | 46c | 852.93$390 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$463.42 | 600 | 33.8%203 W · 397 L | -7.5wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 43c | 720.09$311 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$408.82 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbc6…5585backed Yes | 45c | 510.12$227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$283.05 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f9a…06d0backed Yes | 76c | 470.32$357 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.92 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 64cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaaec…8dc8backed Yes | 32c | 382.84$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$261.51 | 493 | 38.9%192 W · 301 L | +49.3wins | +0.10per pick | 29cpaid | +51.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x58db…ea03backed Yes | 30c | 325.96$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228.17 | 78 | 42.3%33 W · 45 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb8…d906backed No | 16c | 303.06$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.61 | 49 | 63.3%31 W · 18 L | +11.8wins | +0.24per pick | 39cpaid | +96.8%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x6dee…f4e6backed No | 30c | 284.26$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.54 | 94 | 59.6%56 W · 38 L | +9.8wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5093…272cbacked Yes | 4c | 277.37$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265.37 | 727 | 26.4%192 W · 535 L | +63.8wins | +0.09per pick | 18cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8bac…cf49backed Yes | 65c | 269.94$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.18 | 1,089 | 29.7%323 W · 766 L | +36.6wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf385…4864backed No | 27c | 256.95$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.4 | 40 | 65%26 W · 14 L | +7.1wins | +0.18per pick | 47cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xd8f8…0f11backed No | 20c | 200$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 966 | 20.7%200 W · 766 L | +59.8wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | +96.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb608…ebdfbacked Yes | 28c | 200$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145 | 68 | 17.6%12 W · 56 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f86…404ebacked Yes | 64c | 168.05$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.14 | 259 | 47.5%123 W · 136 L | +8.5wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4210…dd70backed Yes | 53c | 156.66$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.66 | 170 | 40%68 W · 102 L | -13.7wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5780…cf72backed No | 32c | 146.37$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.11 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9304…f693backed No | 24c | 137.99$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.86 | 61 | 16.4%10 W · 51 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 16cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2620…7139backed Yes | 78c | 136.99$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.16 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 41c | 130.55$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.62 | 1,022 | 30.6%313 W · 709 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x023e…d4d2backed Yes | 55c | 127.29$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.29 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -2.5wins | -0.15per pick | 59cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9e83…9394backed No | 33c | 120$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.6 | 352 | 32.7%115 W · 237 L | +20.9wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x043a…5a0bbacked Yes | 35c | 101.37$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.71 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7e6…2cc5backed No | 69c | 100$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.35 | 205 | 56.1%115 W · 90 L | +25.5wins | +0.12per pick | 44cpaid | +40.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x9469…6d18backed No | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 959 | 42.4%407 W · 552 L | +84.9wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7a1c…523cbacked Yes | 45c | 88.89$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.89 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +122.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51b7…d820backed Yes | 41c | 81.59$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.79 | 254 | 36.6%93 W · 161 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +38.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7850…119ebacked Yes | 42c | 71.58$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.45 | 77 | 57.1%44 W · 33 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd248…2c3cbacked Yes | 55c | 64$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.8 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 28c | 60.54$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.34 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbdcd…3e9cbacked Yes | 30c | 55$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.5 | 833 | 32.1%267 W · 566 L | +24.4wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3978…2f24backed No | 34c | 52.51$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.75 | 40 | 57.5%23 W · 17 L | +3.6wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6297…517ebacked Yes | 27c | 50$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.5 | 1,643 | 27.8%456 W · 1,187 L | +117.6wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +33%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x51d3…9f09backed No | 60c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe41f…31abbacked Yes | 76c | 48.67$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.55 | 101 | 55.4%56 W · 45 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0ff…136bbacked No | 47c | 40.59$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.07 | 28 | 71.4%20 W · 8 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 66cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd68e…f46bbacked Yes | 69c | 31.7$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.7 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c4e…ea53backed Yes | 61c | 30.02$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.86 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0209…441fbacked Yes | 41c | 28.92$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.92 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +141%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1208…0160backed Yes | 61c | 28.25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +1.8wins | +0.08per pick | 31cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 42c | 27.96$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.74 | 321 | 33.3%107 W · 214 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f39…a78cbacked Yes | 46c | 22.96$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.51 | 213 | 50.2%107 W · 106 L | +19.0wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 64–65°F on May 21?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 57°F or below on May 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 68°F or higher on May 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 58–59°F on May 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 60–61°F on May 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 62–63°F on May 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 66–67°F on May 21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.