World Politics · resolved market
Will turnout in the 2025 Bucharest mayoral by-election be less than 34%?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0a5f2476424ad824259ad4095d67269037accfd2faaf830a8773ba5d73139263
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $63,046
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $60,802
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $63,046 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x00bc…91d0backed No | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x62cf…5826backed Yes | 72c | 3,878$2,793 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,085.26 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | +3.5wins | +0.10per pick | 39cpaid | +15%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6291…cc47backed Yes | 34c | 3,425$1,180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,245.55 | 284 | 34.2%97 W · 187 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadaf…f9f2backed No | 18c | 2,511$462 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$462.16 | 56 | 26.8%15 W · 41 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde54…444dbacked No | 6c | 2,413$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.97 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.10per pick | 15cpaid | +183%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed No | 4c | 1,689$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.95 | 688 | 3.6%25 W · 663 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a3f…914abacked No | 1c | 1,500$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 53 | 32.1%17 W · 36 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c1e…a91fbacked No | 6c | 1,310$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc3de…e227backed Yes | 14c | 969.8$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$838.75 | 239 | 21.3%51 W · 188 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xacb3…13e6backed Yes | 14c | 931.97$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$805.61 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +2.3wins | +0.21per pick | 16cpaid | +94.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf371…9812backed No | 9c | 925.31$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.03 | 36 | 19.4%7 W · 29 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbdb9…1418backed Yes | 23c | 786.62$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$605.67 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe759…e7cabacked No | 71c | 731.26$516 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$516 | 67 | 59.7%40 W · 27 L | +6.3wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x108d…508abacked Yes | 8c | 660.05$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$607.85 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +28%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa99d…dd2cbacked Yes | 25c | 540$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$405.4 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked No | 3c | 500$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 179 | 21.2%38 W · 141 L | +10.6wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | +56.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc8a0…5cc4backed No | 69c | 410.77$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$284.78 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +29%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf021…df56backed No | 5c | 400$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.2 | 51 | 41.2%21 W · 30 L | +3.6wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +108.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 66c | 376.85$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.15 | 1,022 | 28%286 W · 736 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1433…af79backed Yes | 29c | 343.75$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$243.75 | 33 | 18.2%6 W · 27 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e8b…856ebacked No | 9c | 321.28$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 39 | 25.6%10 W · 29 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5598…0f47backed No | 11c | 300$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.8 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.13per pick | 32cpaid | +49.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4b3…87b8backed No | 7c | 300$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 103 | 31.1%32 W · 71 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb40…3612backed No | 39c | 241.08$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.82 | 74 | 16.2%12 W · 62 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -57.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5be6…1446backed Yes | 25c | 240$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5339…9da3backed No | 6c | 230$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.56 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | +2.8wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9419…4201backed Yes | 12c | 200$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176 | 61 | 18%11 W · 50 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +65.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…dfc1backed Yes | 6c | 174.99$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.84 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +1.5wins | +0.15per pick | 15cpaid | +126.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8aaf…c132backed No | 11c | 128.63$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.47 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39aa…583cbacked No | 17c | 113.13$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.54 | 81 | 29.6%24 W · 57 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19c0…35f8backed Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +1.6wins | +0.10per pick | 32cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will turnout in the 2025 Bucharest mayoral by-election be less than 34%?this page
- Will turnout in the 2025 Bucharest mayoral by-election be at least 46%?No won
- Will turnout in the 2025 Bucharest mayoral by-election be between 34% and 36%?No won
- Will turnout in the 2025 Bucharest mayoral by-election be between 36% and 38%?No won
- Will turnout in the 2025 Bucharest mayoral by-election be between 38% and 40%?No won
- Will turnout in the 2025 Bucharest mayoral by-election be between 40% and 42%?No won
- Will turnout in the 2025 Bucharest mayoral by-election be between 42% and 44%?No won
- Will turnout in the 2025 Bucharest mayoral by-election be between 44% and 46%?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.