TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Mls · resolved market

Will San Jose Earthquakes win on 2026-02-28?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$53,524
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$53,542

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $53,524 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 86 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Mls
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xdc87…7ab6backed Yes47c9,712$4,574 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,137.755250%26 W · 26 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+3.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4435…0840backed No53c7,547$4,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,0001233.3%4 W · 8 L-2.0wins-0.17per pick50cpaid-33.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8a92…6941backed No11c3,615$390 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$389.991553.3%8 W · 7 L+3.1wins+0.21per pick33cpaid+23%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xd71a…67f5backed Yes49c3,242$1,598 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,644.14683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.6wins+0.27per pick57cpaid+47.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Yes49c2,694$1,320 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,373.711,27048%610 W · 660 L-7.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-4.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdb22…6478backed No50c2,610$1,304 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,303.7715647.4%74 W · 82 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1455…e5cdbacked No49c2,221$1,088 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,088.2912451.6%64 W · 60 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-8.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe0a2…40d5backed No53c2,151$1,140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,1403452.9%18 W · 16 L+1.4wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+10%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Yes47c1,605$754 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$850.519151.6%47 W · 44 L-4.4wins-0.05per pick56cpaid-10.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Yes50c1,459$735 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$724.1758043.6%253 W · 327 L-12.2wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-11.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x12b9…3ec2backed No21c1,125$236 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$236.053625%9 W · 27 L-3.2wins-0.09per pick34cpaid-39.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7b2c…af48backed No52c1,102$569 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$569.1415341.2%63 W · 90 L-14.0wins-0.09per pick50cpaid-24%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xd93b…cd48backed No52c1,020$530 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$530.42250%11 W · 11 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid+13.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcf00…353fbacked No51c980.06$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$499.834837.5%18 W · 30 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0a77…9d74backed Yes49c845$414 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$430.9513347.4%63 W · 70 L-0.6wins0.00per pick48cpaid-0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Yes50c820$411 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$409.11,00946.2%466 W · 543 L+11.2wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-7.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Yes54c807.29$435 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$372.433,01243.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L-29.7wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-9.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked No53c619$328 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$327.5723643.6%103 W · 133 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x972b…78babacked No51c593.85$302 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$302.3737649.7%187 W · 189 L+1.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1aa2…30ccbacked No53c566.04$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3004751.1%24 W · 23 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+4.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8314…0f1ebacked No49c500$245 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2455464.8%35 W · 19 L+7.6wins+0.14per pick51cpaid+27.6%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed No18c494.24$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.071,88036.6%688 W · 1,192 L-7.3wins0.00per pick37cpaid-8.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe3d4…2bacbacked Yes49c406.27$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$206.275451.9%28 W · 26 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-3.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd37a…2358backed No52c392.69$203 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202.9980358%466 W · 337 L+5.9wins+0.01per pick57cpaid-0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7a49…d9f5backed No49c367.85$182 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$181.8945140.4%182 W · 269 L-18.7wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-22.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2dc4…0c92backed Yes48c362.84$173 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$189.5913942.4%59 W · 80 L-6.7wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-9.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xadfb…c2efbacked Yes49c358.76$177 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$182.0953046.4%246 W · 284 L-15.2wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-0.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8de5…2b04backed Yes48c350$168 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1821947.4%9 W · 10 L+1.3wins+0.07per pick41cpaid-2.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked No16c317.8$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.9526345.2%119 W · 144 L-1.0wins0.00per pick46cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9055…12cebacked Yes49c300$147 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1531942.1%8 W · 11 L+1.7wins+0.09per pick33cpaid+43.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x489d…f6e3backed Yes51c286.08$146 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$139.8126050.4%131 W · 129 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked No50c276.49$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138.2425149%123 W · 128 L+0.1wins0.00per pick49cpaid+2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9de0…dacebacked Yes16c270.64$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$228.04366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.5wins+0.51per pick15cpaid+339.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0c84…a8edbacked No51c254.9$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1308946.1%41 W · 48 L-2.0wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-3.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0d6a…4adabacked Yes53c252.36$133 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$119.3615458.4%90 W · 64 L+9.1wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+15.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5e5b…a569backed Yes49c244.9$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$124.91384.6%11 W · 2 L+3.7wins+0.28per pick56cpaid+53.7%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xcb5b…f243backed No17c228.72$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.8826346.8%123 W · 140 L-4.6wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-16.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x14e4…3e2bbacked Yes74c210$155 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.13100%3 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+31.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1b9b…bc4abacked Yes50c200$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1001136.4%4 W · 7 L-0.8wins-0.07per pick43cpaid-26.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8eb5…4ba6backed Yes50c200$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc94c…ba65backed Yes15c200$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$170475%3 W · 1 L+2.5wins+0.62per pick13cpaid+515%equal weight59+0.09 edge/pick
0xa2e0…d084backed No52c190.75$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001526.7%4 W · 11 L-4.1wins-0.27per pick54cpaid-54.9%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked No47c161.84$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.777751.7%402 W · 375 L+0.8wins0.00per pick52cpaid-2.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3865…fcbebacked No16c156.25$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$255349.1%26 W · 27 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-16.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x34c3…a6bebacked Yes50c150$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$751100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbed0…3c7dbacked Yes55c132.36$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.921735.3%6 W · 11 L-0.8wins-0.05per pick40cpaid-17.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x939d…3b3cbacked Yes47c110$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.38446.4%39 W · 45 L0.0wins0.00per pick46cpaid-3.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5f48…cd03backed Yes48c104.17$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.171163.6%7 W · 4 L+1.3wins+0.12per pick52cpaid+24.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1a29…16c5backed Yes48c104.17$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.178465.5%55 W · 29 L+16.4wins+0.20per pick46cpaid+60.6%equal weight67+0.15 edge/pick
0x9d55…7bc7backed Yes47c101.89$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$542759.3%16 W · 11 L+2.0wins+0.07per pick52cpaid+19.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0aa0…be2dbacked Yes50c100$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50988.9%8 W · 1 L+2.6wins+0.29per pick60cpaid+45.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xc067…e97cbacked Yes49c100$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$511100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+104.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x14b0…8d0ebacked Yes51c98.04$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.046439.1%25 W · 39 L-6.3wins-0.10per pick49cpaid-18.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x44b6…98b4backed Yes76c92.05$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.221850%9 W · 9 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xec66…e58fbacked Yes50c86$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$431172.7%8 W · 3 L+2.2wins+0.20per pick53cpaid+63%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x26d3…8a20backed Yes57c81$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.832161.9%13 W · 8 L+1.0wins+0.05per pick57cpaid+1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1c2b…d0d2backed No16c75$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121145.5%5 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.08per pick53cpaid-20.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9dd8…5cdbbacked Yes52c73$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.04475%3 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.20per pick55cpaid+29.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x84f7…ade1backed Yes50c69$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.520648.5%100 W · 106 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick49cpaid+13%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8405…2163backed Yes48c68.75$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.753426.5%9 W · 25 L-3.9wins-0.11per pick38cpaid-42.8%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xd205…e7fbbacked Yes48c62.5$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.52070%14 W · 6 L+4.6wins+0.23per pick47cpaid+67.6%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xa07d…a037backed No25c62.22$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.724920.9%52 W · 197 L-19.4wins-0.08per pick29cpaid-30.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x0919…cf96backed No53c61.46$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.48955.6%5 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa509…ae46backed No34c53.43$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.9854949%269 W · 280 L-7.7wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-13%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x43e8…af56backed No29c52.53$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152528%7 W · 18 L-3.1wins-0.12per pick40cpaid-30.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xa5e2…0dcdbacked No51c50.74$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.8710%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Yes48c50$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.228721.6%62 W · 225 L-29.9wins-0.10per pick32cpaid-44.8%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xb38c…b2c9backed Yes49c49$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.992236.4%8 W · 14 L-1.5wins-0.07per pick43cpaid-13.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf158…aa4bbacked Yes50c47.83$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.921957.9%11 W · 8 L+1.0wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+3.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xfec7…485abacked Yes49c40.82$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.82425%1 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.19per pick44cpaid-49%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3601…cbd5backed Yes50c40.28$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.14966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.4wins+0.15per pick51cpaid+27.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2062…6be2backed Yes51c39.22$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.223056.7%17 W · 13 L+3.3wins+0.11per pick46cpaid+21.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x0ca6…77dfbacked Yes51c39.15$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.154553.3%24 W · 21 L+1.3wins+0.03per pick50cpaid-4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x02f4…4effbacked No45c37.78$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$172055%11 W · 9 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick51cpaid-0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xed61…9aa3backed Yes55c37.78$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1712100%12 W · 0 L+5.0wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+127.4%equal weight65+0.14 edge/pick
0xafeb…5cd2backed Yes75c37.33$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.331384.6%11 W · 2 L+2.2wins+0.17per pick68cpaid+22%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x56a8…3639backed Yes77c32$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.36757.1%4 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick57cpaid-13.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcaf1…a57bbacked Yes50c31.74$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.87250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5e01…a0b0backed Yes52c31$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.01560%3 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.15per pick45cpaid+15.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa4bd…e8a2backed No49c30$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.75549.1%27 W · 28 L-3.6wins-0.07per pick56cpaid-24.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x7c21…12bdbacked Yes50c30$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$151060%6 W · 4 L+1.5wins+0.15per pick45cpaid+24.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf39a…fe47backed No47c29.08$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.5937249.2%183 W · 189 L-12.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-15.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x07c9…9f5bbacked Yes76c27.63$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.631100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+31.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x275a…4d33backed No52c22.6$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.78742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.09per pick52cpaid-17.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb152…ef4cbacked Yes48c21.87$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.372100%2 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.55per pick45cpaid+120.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4aab…38ccbacked No54c19.44$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.53148.4%15 W · 16 L-3.5wins-0.11per pick60cpaid-22.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.