NBA · resolved market
Spread: Thunder (-14.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0a6da95bf3585cc0508f79eb88b7abc2ec7fa88272353892bc59ec754f6e971b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Thunderof Thunder, Trail Blazers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,000
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,599
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,000 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5351…9b3cbacked Trail Blazers | 44c | 1,318$581 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$580.69 | 203 | 55.2%112 W · 91 L | +7.9wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Thunder | 56c | 1,115$623 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$491.91 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x986c…dbc6backed Thunder | 56c | 1,050$588 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$462 | 476 | 51.7%246 W · 230 L | -6.4wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80cf…427dbacked Thunder | 56c | 1,000$560 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$440 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x92cf…8b35backed Thunder | 55c | 180.46$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.46 | 1,110 | 52%577 W · 533 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7322…de07backed Thunder | 56c | 130$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.2 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1436…e23dbacked Trail Blazers | 45c | 107$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.15 | 80 | 50%40 W · 40 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7602…2775backed Trail Blazers | 45c | 105.6$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.52 | 506 | 48%243 W · 263 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a52…9ad6backed Thunder | 58c | 103.44$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.44 | 28 | 64.3%18 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20ec…fa43backed Thunder | 56c | 89.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.29 | 610 | 56.1%342 W · 268 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00fe…eff7backed Trail Blazers | 45c | 76$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.2 | 85 | 52.9%45 W · 40 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x699c…3600backed Trail Blazers | 45c | 71$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.95 | 80 | 52.5%42 W · 38 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f9…5526backed Trail Blazers | 45c | 68$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.6 | 76 | 51.3%39 W · 37 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d30…2645backed Trail Blazers | 45c | 60$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 74 | 48.6%36 W · 38 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Trail Blazers | 41c | 59.85$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.7 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f1c…0dd0backed Trail Blazers | 45c | 56$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 50 | 60%30 W · 20 L | +4.4wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x682f…3265backed Thunder | 56c | 53.57$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.57 | 1,389 | 54.9%762 W · 627 L | +16.7wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3d8…c8c0backed Trail Blazers | 45c | 51$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.95 | 53 | 45.3%24 W · 29 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2579…d6cbbacked Thunder | 55c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x00c0…4523backed Thunder | 55c | 45$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.25 | 40 | 47.5%19 W · 21 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3fa2…6f8cbacked Trail Blazers | 45c | 43$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.35 | 69 | 53.6%37 W · 32 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcdd0…4938backed Trail Blazers | 45c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | +3.6wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x68e0…a3a6backed Trail Blazers | 45c | 39$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.55 | 56 | 50%28 W · 28 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcda0…a51abacked Thunder | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.71 | 296 | 52.7%156 W · 140 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0f…1ecdbacked Thunder | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.71 | 67 | 56.7%38 W · 29 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e29…c992backed Thunder | 55c | 35$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.75 | 51 | 64.7%33 W · 18 L | +6.4wins | +0.13per pick | 52cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfa46…1559backed Thunder | 55c | 33$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.85 | 41 | 65.9%27 W · 14 L | +5.2wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x117d…6542backed Thunder | 56c | 26.79$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.79 | 564 | 54.3%306 W · 258 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1bd…0da6backed Thunder | 55c | 26$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.7 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | -3.6wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6162…e856backed Thunder | 55c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 35 | 62.9%22 W · 13 L | +3.4wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1313…866abacked Thunder | 55c | 21$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.45 | 46 | 52.2%24 W · 22 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf9…142bbacked Thunder | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b80…8e56backed Thunder | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf86a…9ed1backed Thunder | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 33 | 54.5%18 W · 15 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf683…f2dfbacked Thunder | 55c | 19$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.55 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Thunder (-14.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Thunder (-9.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Thunder (-15.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Thunder (-16.5)Thunder won
- Trail Blazers vs. ThunderThunder won
- Trail Blazers vs. Thunder: 1H MoneylineThunder won
- Trail Blazers vs. Thunder: 1H O/U 120.5Over won
- Trail Blazers vs. Thunder: O/U 232.5Under won
- Trail Blazers vs. Thunder: O/U 233.5Under won
- Trail Blazers vs. Thunder: O/U 234.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.