NBA · resolved market
Spread: Thunder (-15.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x160cfa99c42e52e8dd9434f698208ee509cc5ff1e03a44e95b9db59adb7aed26
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Thunderof Thunder, Trail Blazers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $166,377
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $166,375
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $166,377 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 71 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4924…3782backed Thunder | 52c | 96,538$50,470 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46,067.15 | 874 | 51.5%450 W · 424 L | +15.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68dd…f0b2backed Trail Blazers | 48c | 50,000$23,900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23,900 | 513 | 50.1%257 W · 256 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb889…a430backed Trail Blazers | 49c | 50,000$24,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24,499.99 | 92 | 63%58 W · 34 L | +9.8wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcc63…f1c7backed Thunder | 51c | 20,100$10,250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,850 | 506 | 53.2%269 W · 237 L | +8.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xead0…f3babacked Trail Blazers | 48c | 10,000$4,800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,799.99 | 1,124 | 48.6%546 W · 578 L | +13.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Thunder | 51c | 9,332$4,787 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,545.44 | 2,045 | 48.4%990 W · 1,055 L | -30.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8cbb…acb2backed Thunder | 51c | 9,027$4,603 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,423.65 | 890 | 50.4%449 W · 441 L | +4.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Trail Blazers | 46c | 6,761$3,119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,118.65 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed Trail Blazers | 47c | 6,640$3,121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,120.8 | 1,139 | 48.3%550 W · 589 L | +3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Trail Blazers | 47c | 5,000$2,350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,350 | 2,153 | 51.3%1,105 W · 1,048 L | +76.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Trail Blazers | 47c | 3,984$1,872 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,872.26 | 4,325 | 47%2,031 W · 2,294 L | -69.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6ee…697bbacked Trail Blazers | 50c | 3,486$1,743 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,742.82 | 203 | 52.2%106 W · 97 L | +6.3wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed Trail Blazers | 50c | 3,158$1,579 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,579 | 1,910 | 54.3%1,038 W · 872 L | +25.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e2…4e99backed Thunder | 51c | 2,118$1,080 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,037.65 | 164 | 42.1%69 W · 95 L | -7.6wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe071…2d1abacked Thunder | 51c | 1,200$612 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$587.99 | 489 | 57.5%281 W · 208 L | +2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x87ea…f625backed Thunder | 50c | 1,111$556 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$555.5 | 243 | 30.9%75 W · 168 L | -11.5wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd092…342abacked Trail Blazers | 48c | 1,042$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 462 | 58.2%269 W · 193 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…8abdbacked Trail Blazers | 49c | 1,017$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 507 | 54.2%275 W · 232 L | +13.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Trail Blazers | 48c | 1,000$478 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$477.69 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dac…4a66backed Thunder | 51c | 696.27$355 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$341.27 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Trail Blazers | 36c | 614.09$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.84 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb552…94a8backed Thunder | 51c | 560$286 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$274.4 | 2,078 | 53.6%1,113 W · 965 L | +44.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdab0…2fe9backed Thunder | 56c | 538.39$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$238.39 | 44 | 59.1%26 W · 18 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Trail Blazers | 22c | 432.6$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.25 | 2,630 | 36.7%966 W · 1,664 L | -119.1wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6909…36b5backed Trail Blazers | 50c | 400$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 53 | 50.9%27 W · 26 L | -3.5wins | -0.07per pick | 58cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Trail Blazers | 44c | 388.47$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.93 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f3f…5878backed Thunder | 50c | 300$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 221 | 38%84 W · 137 L | -11.6wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa35b…0eccbacked Trail Blazers | 50c | 300$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 245 | 56.3%138 W · 107 L | +10.5wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x54b5…4b31backed Trail Blazers | 49c | 299.97$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.99 | 569 | 45.3%258 W · 311 L | -8.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c9b…a556backed Thunder | 52c | 240.38$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.38 | 229 | 53.7%123 W · 106 L | +6.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb580…9b95backed Trail Blazers | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 184 | 40.8%75 W · 109 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe54d…fdecbacked Trail Blazers | 49c | 200$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 185 | 56.8%105 W · 80 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8059…c043backed Thunder | 51c | 200$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98 | 261 | 50.2%131 W · 130 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1802…d00fbacked Thunder | 65c | 199.99$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 162 | 43.8%71 W · 91 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbd…3d15backed Trail Blazers | 46c | 157.06$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.25 | 762 | 47.1%359 W · 403 L | +2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e46…0742backed Thunder | 52c | 134.62$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.62 | 239 | 48.5%116 W · 123 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1375…4c69backed Trail Blazers | 47c | 128.02$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 118 | 39.8%47 W · 71 L | -9.2wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc1df…4404backed Trail Blazers | 14c | 113.4$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.15 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -3.0wins | -0.17per pick | 39cpaid | -61.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6e57…21cbbacked Trail Blazers | 49c | 100$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 56 | 55.4%31 W · 25 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa9…febebacked Thunder | 52c | 99.02$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.53 | 1,096 | 40.9%448 W · 648 L | +34.3wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -17%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Trail Blazers | 46c | 83.46$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.39 | 1,294 | 48.1%623 W · 671 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x05d3…c06abacked Thunder | 62c | 80.22$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.22 | 1,573 | 53.4%840 W · 733 L | -12.8wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4aff…c91bbacked Trail Blazers | 49c | 75$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.75 | 90 | 50%45 W · 45 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15ca…0a0dbacked Trail Blazers | 45c | 73.33$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 126 | 48.4%61 W · 65 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Thunder | 52c | 73$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.04 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Thunder | 51c | 71$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.79 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe56e…0bb4backed Thunder | 51c | 58.82$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.82 | 242 | 48.3%117 W · 125 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x412f…30fabacked Trail Blazers | 46c | 55.5$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.53 | 357 | 44.3%158 W · 199 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Trail Blazers | 35c | 55.42$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.4 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Trail Blazers | 47c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.66 | 3,668 | 41.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L | -70.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Thunder | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 2,657 | 49.6%1,319 W · 1,338 L | +42.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe70c…c938backed Trail Blazers | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 745 | 47.2%352 W · 393 L | -13.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f10…ef9abacked Trail Blazers | 49c | 49.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 79 | 35.4%28 W · 51 L | -10.1wins | -0.13per pick | 48cpaid | -30%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed Thunder | 51c | 46.11$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.59 | 637 | 45.8%292 W · 345 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Thunder | 54c | 38.23$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.55 | 1,695 | 44.7%758 W · 937 L | -30.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb87…88d1backed Trail Blazers | 49c | 37$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.13 | 87 | 52.9%46 W · 41 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52cc…9998backed Thunder | 51c | 36$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.64 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Thunder | 51c | 35.5$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.4 | 2,512 | 49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Trail Blazers | 35c | 33.9$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.91 | 1,786 | 53.2%950 W · 836 L | +52.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d28…7a6dbacked Trail Blazers | 47c | 32.1$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.09 | 938 | 49.7%466 W · 472 L | +36.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a31…152cbacked Trail Blazers | 50c | 31.12$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.56 | 484 | 51.2%248 W · 236 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xede6…89c4backed Thunder | 51c | 29$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.21 | 50 | 56%28 W · 22 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…22ebbacked Thunder | 51c | 27.45$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.45 | 599 | 48.4%290 W · 309 L | -8.2wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3da1…c13bbacked Thunder | 51c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.25 | 421 | 46.1%194 W · 227 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc427…ee41backed Trail Blazers | 49c | 24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.76 | 47 | 57.4%27 W · 20 L | +3.1wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x40a6…a17ebacked Trail Blazers | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 121 | 48.8%59 W · 62 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6245…5f7ebacked Trail Blazers | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 124 | 50%62 W · 62 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d66…e2e5backed Trail Blazers | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 46 | 45.7%21 W · 25 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb052…7adabacked Trail Blazers | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 290 | 46.9%136 W · 154 L | -9.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a51…ef48backed Trail Blazers | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 66 | 42.4%28 W · 38 L | -5.1wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7481…279fbacked Trail Blazers | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 156 | 51.9%81 W · 75 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Thunder (-15.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Thunder (-9.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Thunder (-14.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Thunder (-16.5)Thunder won
- Trail Blazers vs. ThunderThunder won
- Trail Blazers vs. Thunder: 1H MoneylineThunder won
- Trail Blazers vs. Thunder: 1H O/U 120.5Over won
- Trail Blazers vs. Thunder: O/U 232.5Under won
- Trail Blazers vs. Thunder: O/U 233.5Under won
- Trail Blazers vs. Thunder: O/U 234.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.