NBA · resolved market
Spread: Thunder (-16.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x974065e468a28e8d34cf078b085a9efc627f125cbb1a634fea7a3b454a3b9552
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Thunderof Thunder, Trail Blazers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $159,476
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $159,874
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $159,476 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4924…3782backed Thunder | 51c | 135,492$68,741 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66,751.32 | 874 | 51.5%450 W · 424 L | +15.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe90b…5da2backed Trail Blazers | 49c | 82,621$40,484 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40,484.34 | 1,045 | 49%512 W · 533 L | +21.8wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Trail Blazers | 49c | 25,000$12,350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,350 | 2,153 | 51.3%1,105 W · 1,048 L | +76.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Trail Blazers | 51c | 12,700$6,521 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,521.5 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xead0…f3babacked Trail Blazers | 50c | 10,000$5,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,000 | 1,124 | 48.6%546 W · 578 L | +13.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe405…bf91backed Trail Blazers | 52c | 2,000$1,040 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,040 | 484 | 48.8%236 W · 248 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Thunder | 52c | 1,484$773 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$711.13 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Trail Blazers | 48c | 1,383$665 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$664.96 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad15…ee7fbacked Trail Blazers | 51c | 1,178$601 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$601 | 140 | 61.4%86 W · 54 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed Trail Blazers | 51c | 1,177$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600.27 | 2,435 | 49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L | +30.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb580…9b95backed Trail Blazers | 25c | 999.99$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 184 | 40.8%75 W · 109 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f3f…5878backed Trail Blazers | 50c | 930$468 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$468 | 221 | 38%84 W · 137 L | -11.6wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Trail Blazers | 51c | 710.2$359 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$359.2 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Thunder | 75c | 570.84$428 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.44 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Trail Blazers | 49c | 290$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.1 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Trail Blazers | 49c | 122.12$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.34 | 2,657 | 49.6%1,319 W · 1,338 L | +42.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x34fa…f491backed Trail Blazers | 52c | 100$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 955 | 48.5%463 W · 492 L | -3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56c2…629fbacked Thunder | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe50b…c2a8backed Trail Blazers | 51c | 100$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 658 | 55.6%366 W · 292 L | +27.0wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Trail Blazers | 51c | 80.94$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.95 | 1,294 | 48.1%623 W · 671 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x15ca…0a0dbacked Thunder | 50c | 63.97$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.99 | 126 | 48.4%61 W · 65 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Trail Blazers | 51c | 61$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.11 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d28…7a6dbacked Trail Blazers | 50c | 60.01$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.99 | 938 | 49.7%466 W · 472 L | +36.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd00…7a45backed Thunder | 51c | 49.02$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.02 | 380 | 50.8%193 W · 187 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Trail Blazers | 51c | 49$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.99 | 2,512 | 49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d73…be4fbacked Trail Blazers | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 82 | 34.1%28 W · 54 L | -8.3wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xaadd…637dbacked Trail Blazers | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 75 | 38.7%29 W · 46 L | -6.0wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5425…8b3abacked Trail Blazers | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 291 | 56.4%164 W · 127 L | +13.8wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0969…b289backed Trail Blazers | 50c | 22.43$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.22 | 222 | 47.3%105 W · 117 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1600…5a08backed Trail Blazers | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 141 | 27.7%39 W · 102 L | -16.4wins | -0.12per pick | 39cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Thunder (-16.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Thunder (-9.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Thunder (-14.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Thunder (-15.5)Thunder won
- Trail Blazers vs. ThunderThunder won
- Trail Blazers vs. Thunder: 1H MoneylineThunder won
- Trail Blazers vs. Thunder: 1H O/U 120.5Over won
- Trail Blazers vs. Thunder: O/U 232.5Under won
- Trail Blazers vs. Thunder: O/U 233.5Under won
- Trail Blazers vs. Thunder: O/U 234.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.