NBA · resolved market
Trail Blazers vs. Thunder: O/U 234.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x79c67d4af82c825fd3fd828df0fc21db9b0cc764e6956cf62f3f63ba94153bbb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,243
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,200
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,243 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb552…94a8backed Under | 52c | 5,104$2,670 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,434.08 | 2,078 | 53.6%1,113 W · 965 L | +44.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Over | 46c | 2,331$1,072 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,072.26 | 2,091 | 47.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L | -56.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked Under | 53c | 2,188$1,151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,037.16 | 1,908 | 54.5%1,040 W · 868 L | +53.7wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf93f…f94bbacked Over | 46c | 2,153$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 166 | 33.7%56 W · 110 L | -11.6wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x253d…aa62backed Over | 46c | 1,743$802 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$801.78 | 583 | 47%274 W · 309 L | -12.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Over | 47c | 988$464 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$464.36 | 2,045 | 48.4%990 W · 1,055 L | -30.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Under | 54c | 482$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221.72 | 1,667 | 52.7%878 W · 789 L | +45.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Over | 53c | 433.04$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.6 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 54c | 374.03$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.15 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 53c | 354.89$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.8 | 4,325 | 47%2,031 W · 2,294 L | -69.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Over | 47c | 300$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141 | 1,197 | 47.5%569 W · 628 L | -32.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 30c | 208.11$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.94 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe47b…1b4bbacked Over | 46c | 200$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92 | 357 | 39.8%142 W · 215 L | -25.0wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x02b6…8f5fbacked Under | 50c | 199.81$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.81 | 46 | 47.8%22 W · 24 L | -6.3wins | -0.14per pick | 61cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3504…e042backed Over | 46c | 150$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 68 | 44.1%30 W · 38 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Over | 49c | 126.86$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.61 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d43…86e7backed Over | 46c | 118.76$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.63 | 54 | 50%27 W · 27 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Over | 45c | 107.79$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.51 | 1,294 | 48.1%623 W · 671 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1aa…054ebacked Over | 47c | 105.72$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.69 | 68 | 39.7%27 W · 41 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15ca…0a0dbacked Over | 47c | 105.31$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.5 | 126 | 48.4%61 W · 65 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef2e…8d89backed Over | 45c | 100$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 334 | 42.8%143 W · 191 L | -17.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -13%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe50b…c2a8backed Under | 54c | 100$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 658 | 55.6%366 W · 292 L | +27.0wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed Under | 46c | 97.47$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.76 | 637 | 45.8%292 W · 345 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20ec…fa43backed Under | 55c | 90.91$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.91 | 610 | 56.1%342 W · 268 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6f0…5701backed Under | 80c | 73.74$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.75 | 311 | 44.4%138 W · 173 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b5…7e80backed Under | 22c | 59$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.97 | 1,055 | 49.9%526 W · 529 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 48c | 45.69$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.91 | 2,630 | 36.7%966 W · 1,664 L | -119.1wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 49c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.4 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11b3…48b6backed Over | 51c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d20…f812backed Over | 28c | 39.29$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 603 | 46.4%280 W · 323 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Under | 54c | 39$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.94 | 1,786 | 53.2%950 W · 836 L | +52.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Under | 51c | 38$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.52 | 1,695 | 44.7%758 W · 937 L | -30.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a88…2bffbacked Over | 52c | 31.23$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.24 | 379 | 49.3%187 W · 192 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd529…f0d4backed Under | 55c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 1,085 | 63.6%690 W · 395 L | +86.7wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +13%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3a56…387cbacked Under | 54c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.9 | 888 | 45.7%406 W · 482 L | -12.2wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb41…3c9bbacked Over | 77c | 25.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 72cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10f7…26f0backed Under | 55c | 24$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 74 | 51.4%38 W · 36 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8afa…28f0backed Over | 46c | 23.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.81 | 407 | 50.6%206 W · 201 L | +10.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed Over | 47c | 23.14$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.81 | 492 | 47.2%232 W · 260 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2942…5c1bbacked Under | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 57 | 45.6%26 W · 31 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Trail Blazers vs. Thunder: O/U 234.5this page
- 1H Spread: Thunder (-9.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Thunder (-14.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Thunder (-15.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Thunder (-16.5)Thunder won
- Trail Blazers vs. ThunderThunder won
- Trail Blazers vs. Thunder: 1H MoneylineThunder won
- Trail Blazers vs. Thunder: 1H O/U 120.5Over won
- Trail Blazers vs. Thunder: O/U 232.5Under won
- Trail Blazers vs. Thunder: O/U 233.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.