Bundesliga · resolved market
Spread: VfB Stuttgart (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0a9dbb0e0627b7341382cdf0b4bd56e371511c3a6335e95c6fa4983195441a47
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- VfB Stuttgartof VfB Stuttgart, FC Augsburg
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $43,217
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $43,217 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfd29…77aebacked VfB Stuttgart | 44c | 36,287$15,966 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20,320.66 | 63 | 58.7%37 W · 26 L | +5.5wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed FC Augsburg | 56c | 32,841$18,337 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18,337.21 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked FC Augsburg | 56c | 3,500$1,960 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,960 | 166 | 52.4%87 W · 79 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9ff…79dcbacked VfB Stuttgart | 47c | 997.79$469 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$528.79 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed FC Augsburg | 56c | 418.22$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.55 | 306 | 47.1%144 W · 162 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked FC Augsburg | 13c | 331.89$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.22 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf2d…8452backed VfB Stuttgart | 47c | 275$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.75 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +120.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed FC Augsburg | 74c | 210.99$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.13 | 300 | 54%162 W · 138 L | +10.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x18ed…04cbbacked VfB Stuttgart | 28c | 192.74$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.8 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed VfB Stuttgart | 26c | 172.95$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.98 | 636 | 45.1%287 W · 349 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…579cbacked FC Augsburg | 72c | 158$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.76 | 31 | 61.3%19 W · 12 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked VfB Stuttgart | 36c | 145.47$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.98 | 486 | 58.6%285 W · 201 L | +44.5wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +33%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3d…316cbacked FC Augsburg | 74c | 125.96$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.21 | 72 | 47.2%34 W · 38 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked VfB Stuttgart | 26c | 125.96$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.21 | 481 | 46.4%223 W · 258 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf32c…ff08backed FC Augsburg | 74c | 94.59$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.29per pick | 63cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed VfB Stuttgart | 25c | 85$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.75 | 103 | 61.2%63 W · 40 L | +8.2wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x60c2…8052backed VfB Stuttgart | 25c | 80$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 57 | 42.1%24 W · 33 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed FC Augsburg | 74c | 77$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.98 | 220 | 47.3%104 W · 116 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a25…bb6bbacked FC Augsburg | 59c | 70.57$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.56 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbaa2…1973backed FC Augsburg | 56c | 66.07$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 50 | 32%16 W · 34 L | -3.1wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5565…4b3bbacked FC Augsburg | 56c | 65.4$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.61 | 201 | 53.7%108 W · 93 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf142…34efbacked FC Augsburg | 57c | 60.78$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.37 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.26per pick | 51cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked FC Augsburg | 54c | 54.89$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.42 | 1,305 | 40.8%532 W · 773 L | -42.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69e7…7cb7backed VfB Stuttgart | 74c | 54.18$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.18 | 117 | 51.3%60 W · 57 L | -9.2wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xffea…5f0abacked VfB Stuttgart | 48c | 47$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.44 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +2.9wins | +0.18per pick | 38cpaid | +74.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd9f8…2139backed FC Augsburg | 56c | 45.06$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.3 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1813…4dfebacked FC Augsburg | 56c | 34.82$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 183 | 53%97 W · 86 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf3d…fd74backed VfB Stuttgart | 77c | 33.43$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.58 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -4.3wins | -0.22per pick | 57cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xee11…53c9backed FC Augsburg | 56c | 23.2$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.99 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x576c…f218backed FC Augsburg | 73c | 16.78$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.25 | 68 | 61.8%42 W · 26 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: VfB Stuttgart (-1.5)this page
- FC Augsburg vs. VfB Stuttgart: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- FC Augsburg vs. VfB Stuttgart: O/U 1.5Over won
- FC Augsburg vs. VfB Stuttgart: O/U 2.5Over won
- FC Augsburg vs. VfB Stuttgart: O/U 3.5Over won
- FC Augsburg vs. VfB Stuttgart: O/U 4.5Over won
- Spread: FC Augsburg (-1.5)VfB Stuttgart won
- Spread: VfB Stuttgart (-2.5)VfB Stuttgart won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.